Penrith Panthers - Consistency
What a run and what a story for the Panthers. Tipped by many to not even make the finals after a disappointing 2019, Penrith have strung together 15 wins on the bounce to top the ladder comfortably.
If it had been the Storm or the Roosters who had put together this kind of run, they'd be unbackable favourites. Yet many still have doubts about how they'll perform when the finals spotlight shines on them.And maybe for good reason.
They've made the finals in four out of the last five years but are yet to push past the semi finals stage. But this looks a very different side from what we've seen in years gone by. Nathan Cleary and the Panthers have come up big in huge moments in 2020, dispatching with every one of their top four opponents. The only side they lost to, the Eels, they comprehensively handled a few weeks ago 20-2.
This young, tight group has resilience and fearlessness in spades - it's unlikely it's a coincidence they've thrived in such a difficult and unpredictable year. If you're still not convinced, consider this auspicious fact: the Panthers have only topped the regular season ladder twice in their history. Both times they went on to win the premiership.
Melbourne Storm - Experience
It wouldn't be an NRL finals series without a Storm side being just about favourites to win it all. Melbourne have been, as usual, the very picture of consistency in 2020, and if this is Cameron Smith's - and, dare we say it, Craig Bellamy's - final act at the club, they'll be even more desperate to go one step further than the last two seasons.
Their two regular season wins against recent finals foe the Roosters will go some way towards exorcising some of those recent demons, and they'll back their experience in against any other finals challenger. But you didn't need me to convince you. It's the Melbourne Storm - they'll be there or thereabouts when it comes to the business end.
Sydney Roosters - Attack
How much do we read into the Roosters' stunning capitulation at the hands of the Rabbitohs? A lot, if you're reading history. That was their worst loss in eight years under Trent Robinson, and no side has ever conceded over 50 points in a game and gone on to win the premiership.
But if there's ever a side that can defy the record books and claim a threepeat, it's this Roosters team. They've road a tough year with injuries, weathering the storm to secure a double chance and as good a chance as any to go deep once again.
Their offence, on its day, remains the league's most dangerous and damaging - if anyone can crack open Penrith's defence, it's the Roosters. They won't fear anyone else: they've had the wood on the Storm in the big games recently and will go in comfortable favourites against the Eels and the Raiders. Are you really going to bet against them?
Parramatta Eels - Defence
The Eels have stumbled into the finals after an incredibly hot start to the year, and many are already writing them off. Tellingly, their points differential is the 7th best in the league - of the teams left, only the Sharks have a worst differential. Their attacking game has often been scratchy and they've been non-competitive in recent weeks against the Rabbitohs and the Panthers.
That's the bad out of the way. The good: titles are often built on defence and the Eels have been elite at times in that department. They've claimed serious scalps this season, knocking off the Panthers, the Raiders, and most impressively the Storm not too long ago. These results have been mixed with some seriously shocking displays, but we've at least seen them play the kind of football that can win finals.
Finals footy can bring out the best in a side - if they can cut out their errors and improve their discipline, they can be competitive against any opponent. And if they string a few together, the confidence and free-flowing football we saw in the early rounds might just be unlocked again, propelling them towards the premiership.
Canberra Raiders - 2019
Last season's grand finalists may have barely missed out on a top four berth, but if anyone can come from outside the four and win it, it's the Raiders. Since Round 8, they've only lost to the Panthers, Storm and the Roosters. Of course, those are the sides blocking their path to grand final redemption, but memories of their 2019 run should ensure Ricky Stuart's side won't fear anyone when the whips are cracking.
They will have to do it without prop Ryan Sutton, who will play no further part in the season after suffering a medial ligament sprain, but the rest of Stuart's players will be well-rested and raring to go, including England international John Bateman.
They should dispatch the Sharks comfortably and, with confidence sky-high, will prove a serious challenge in the semi-finals for a team coming off a qualifying final loss. Stuart believes the reason no side has won the competition from outside the top four for such a long time is because "no one's been good enough". His quiet confidence suggests he doesn't believe his players fall into that category. All will be clear in a few weeks' time.
South Sydney Rabbitohs - Form
Did you write them off a month ago? Wayne Bennett's Rabbitohs have shot back into premiership calculations after their stunning 60-8 demolition of the two-time reigning champs in the final round.
Simply said, they can win the title off the back of Cody Walker alone. He blew the Roosters off the park single-handedly last Friday and showed that, on his day, he can stake his claim as the best player in the competition. Of course, his ability to do that week-in, week-out has always been the knock on him.
But maybe this set-up from outside the four will suit him and the Rabbitohs - red-hot already, they should knock off the Knights and build up a serious head of steam ahead of a crunch clash with a top four side. All the pressure will be on their opponents - and with nothing to lose, they might just win it all.
Newcastle Knights - Underdog Mentality
Now the cases become harder. The Knights' week one opponents just came off a 52 belting of the reigning champs, while Newcastle was embarrassed by a team who won't even be playing finals. Truth be told, the Knights are rank outsiders to even come close to beating the Rabbitohs, let alone going far in this year's finals series.
On the other hand, the Rabbitohs have been pretty up-and-down in recent weeks, and the Knights might be able to capitalise on complacency and a slip in preparation on their opponents' part.
We haven't seen Newcastle under the finals spotlight for a long time and that also means we don't quite know what to expect. We know that the group loves coach Adam O'Brien - Mitchell Pearce recently hailed him as one of the best signings in the Knights' history.
O'Brien knows what it takes to get to the business end of the finals, working with Trent Robinson and Craig Bellamy to bring championships to their respective teams in years past. If he can find a way to unlock Kalyn Ponga against the Rabbitohs, while keeping things tight in defense, they can push them all the way. And with that formula, why can't they take it up to any opponent they'll meet?
Cronulla Sharks - Spirit
Well, if there's another COVID break-out in -- face it, the Sharks are lucky to be here. They haven't beaten a single team in the top eight, and to make things worse, they've lost Shaun Johnson for their finals campaign along with a sizable portion of next year. Already injury-ravaged, his injury in the penultimate round of the season was a cruel blow to a side already without much hope of a finals upset.
The Sharks did have some competitive early showings against the competition's best - falling by 4 and 2 points to the Rabbitohs and Storm respectively, and have otherwise just about beaten everyone they should have on their way to the finals. As the extreme outsiders, the longer they can keep things close against the Raiders, the more they might start to panic. Win one, and who knows.
Let's be real - there's nothing we can say to convince you the Sharks are any hope of making a run at it. But they're a tight-knight group, and will be buoyed by the news inspirational junior Fine Kula has been cleared of brain cancer. If this year's done anything, it's made us realise there are more important things than a premiership. It's also told us anything can happen. If the Sharks win the premiership, congratulations - that's another one to cross off 2020 bingo.
