For one team, just four weeks stand between them and the Provan-Summons trophy.
The NRL finals have arrived, and so too have the biggest games of the season. There is some mouth-watering first week action. The Manly Sea Eagles vs Melbourne Storm? Yes please. The Penrith Panthers and South Sydney Rabbitohs again? Oh yes.
Those two games could tell us who is going to the grand final before we get past Week 1, given only the North Queensland Cowboys have played in Week 2 of the finals and made the grand final in the last four seasons.
And how about those elimination games? They could be anything. The Titans took the Roosters all the way in a 35-34 thriller last time, while the Eels form line could mean anything.
It might be tough to mount an argument for the teams in the bottom four of the top eight to win the premiership, but we'll give it a crack anyway.
Here is why your team can and can't win the premiership.
Why they can win the premiership
World-class professionalism. To be fair, there are a stack of reasons the Storm can win the premiership. Their all representative halves combination of Jahrome Hughes and Cameron Munster? Their unreal spine featuring representative players as far as the eye can see, and ditto the forward pack?
Maybe it's the outside back attack led by Josh Addo-Carr.
But all in all, this is a team of players who want to play for Craig Bellamy, in the best rugby league system on the planet.
There is a reason the Storm have the best long-running finals record in the competition, and Bellamy and his systems have a lot to do with it.
Why they can't win the premiership
There is one factor the Storm still haven't quite worked out, and it could cost them big time unless they can do so as they attempt to go back-to-back.
That is what their best 13 looks like.
Ryan Papenhuyzen had a timely return to form last week with a hat-trick, but doing it against the Sharks - the team who miss more tackles than any other is one thing. Doing it against a finals contender is another.
But the form of Nicho Hynes has been hard to look past, although fitting the duo into the team hasn't really been working unless Hynes has been able to start in the halves, which he won't once Munster is fit.
There is a secondary problem at hooker, with Brandon Smith and Harry Grant both able to demand big minutes, but unable to get them.
Bellamy is the one coach who could work this out, but he needs to find a proper solution in a hurry.
Why they can win the premiership
The Panthers have an unreal spine at full strength. You only have to go back to the start of the season to remember when they won 12 matches on the bounce.
But it wasn't their attack which was most impressive during that period. They conceded less than ten points per game. They beat everyone in their path by grinding and working and annoying the hell out of them.
In an era of fast-paced, high-scoring rugby league, it was something special. Defence wins premierships, and it's what can get Penrith over the line.
At full strength, they have some of the best tacklers in the game - Apisai Koroisau, Isaah Yeo, James Fisher-Harris. It's hardly a surprise they were so good.
Why they can't win the premiership
This is a team who are far too reliant on Nathan Cleary to lead their attack. When he is injured, or goes missing, they fall apart.
They did through the middle of the season when he was injured to a certain extent - although that's harsh given they are still in second spot on the table. But they certainly haven't looked like a premiership-winning team without Cleary.
Their kicking game goes to pieces, and Jarome Luai's form with it as he tries to lead it. Matt Burton has slowly become more established in playing halves when Cleary has been out, but the problem is this: Cleary has a way of going missing in big games.
He didn't do it in Origin this year, but did in both the grand final and Origin last year.
Why they can win the premiership
The left-hand side. Even without Latrell Mitchell, it's still one of the best in the competition.
Alex Johnston is one of the game's best finishers and rarely makes a mistake, but when he has Dane Gagai, Cody Walker and now Blake Taafe (who has taken to first grade superbly) on the inside creating time and space, it's not hard to see why.
The Rabbitohs will need to explore the options down that left-hand side time and time again throughout the finals series if they are to make a charge.
Johnston is the competition's leading try-scorer despite missing a stack of games, while Cody Walker as a result unsurprisingly leads the try assist count by quite a distance.
Why they can't win the premiership
Apart from the stats and history - they haven't beaten Penrith in two chances this year and teams who don't win in Week 1 don't seem to go to the grand final very often in the past years - Latrell Mitchell being out is a huge blow.
Yes, it's a double-edged sword this because I've just said their left-hand side is still dangerous - and it is.
But that doesn't mean they don't lose plenty right across the park thanks to the absence of Mitchell. He has turned himself into an absolute superstar.
Defensively, he has improved tenfold, and his vision and influence over the men from Redfern's attack has also increased in positive ways on so many fronts.
He is too important to Souths to expect they can win the competition without him, unless somehow both Penrith and Melbourne get knocked out before they have to play them in a knockout game.
Why they can win the premiership
Tom Trbojevic. That's it. That's the whole reason.
Never has there been a player as influential to his team as Trbojevic is to this Manly side.
His numbers we have never seen the likes of. 52 try involvements in 15 games, but even more impressive is his willingness to get involved at every opportunity.
If Manly win the premiership, then you can almost be certain that Tommy Turbo will be the Clive Churchill Medal winner. He is the best player in the competition bar none.
Why they can't win the premiership
Manly do have other problems, but the clunkiness of their right-hand side attack is up there.
Morgan Harper is a superb defensive centre, and runs the ball like a freight train, but the fact he seemingly doesn't overly enjoy passing the ball is a major problem. Jason Saab is often underutilised by Harper, even if Trbojevic does his utmost to get the tall winger involved in the game.
Unfortunately his underuse by Harper often ends in clunky plays and dropped balls, making Saab look far worse than he is.
To beat the top sides in this competition, being able to score right across the park and make the most of every attacking opportunity will be critical.
Why they can win the premiership
In short, the Roosters middle third is fearsome. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Siosiua Taukeiaho and Isaac Liu present an unreal presence which is matched by few other teams.
The way in which Waerea-Hargreaves has stood up this season in particular has been fantastic, but the efforts of Taukeiaho and Liu can't be discredited.
Meanwhile, the Roosters bench forwards, led by the Baker brothers among others, have also been superb. The platform they build has taken a mountain of pressure off the creative players, and allowed James Tedesco to continue his excellent form despite playing in a far weakened team.
It's also given time and space for the kicking game, which has often been well above average, and has led to plenty of Daniel Tupou tries out wide.
Why they can't win the premiership
The Roosters are lacking a lot of experience - and not just experience, but what might be termed as "good" experience.
While their best player Luke Keary has missed most of the year, and all the credit in the world has to go to coach Trent Robinson who has found a way for his team to deal with injury problem after injury problem, you feel that lack of experience could begin to catch up with them in the finals.
Brett Morris, Boyd Cordner and Jake Friend have all retired during the season, which is a major loss in talent out of their top squad. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves is still there to lead things around, while captain James Tedesco has been fantastic, but it's hard to see a spine with Sam Verrills, Sam Walker and Drew Hutchison in it delivering a premiership.
That isn't a knock on those young guys - they have all been fantastic for much of the season.
But doing it in the regular season is one thing. Doing it against the best four times in a row in the finals is a very different scenario.
Why they can win the premiership
The kicking game of Parramatta is something to behold. It played a big part in their surprise Round 24 victory over the Melbourne Storm, and while their form had fallen off a cliff heading into that game, they have rescued things just in time to make a charge at the finals.
They still aren't in the best position, having to come from outside the top four, but they are the most likely of those teams facing elimination in Week 1 to surprise.
Mitchell Moses leading the kicking game has seen Parramatta make more kicks, and kick for more metres than any other side this year, with Moses forcing plenty of drop outs and the team assisting a stack of tries through that side of the game.
That doesn't always work against the top sides, but if you can ensure they are always working it out of the corner or under pressure from a strong chase, then games, especially in today's fast-paced era of league, can switch around very quickly.
Why they can't win the premiership
This is pretty straightforward - the Eels are flat-track bullies. They love playing at home, and not so much away from home. And they fall away in big games.
We have seen it in the last two years when they were trounced each time in the second weekend of the finals.
But we have also seen it throughout the course of the season. Take away the Round 24 win over the Storm and they have lost seven out of nine games against teams in the top six this year.
More worryingly, that is all of their last seven, and a run of six straight between a Round 9 win over the Roosters and the Round 24 victory.
They can't beat the best sides consistently, and it gets worse in big games. That is not a recipe for a premiership.
Why they can win the premiership
Kalyn Ponga. The guy is a gamebreaker. He hasn't shown it a great deal this season in what is the competition's worst attack, but he did in State of Origin Game 3.
The Port Hedland-born Western Australian proved exactly what Queensland were missing on that stage, albeit a dead rubber.
The question now is whether he can do it for Newcastle. Once you're in the finals, it doesn't matter what the regular season record is or whether "you deserve to be there."
It's about how you can string four of the best games you've ever played together. If Ponga does that, especially in combination with Mitchell Pearce and Jake Clifford, the Knights will be a chance.
Why they can't win the premiership
Their attack. I know we just talked about Ponga, but a strategy of "throw the ball to Ponga and see what happens," doesn't work.
The only way Ponga becomes that game-breaker is if he isn't used in every single set of six and is allowed to be patient in trying to make things happen.
The Knights have the second-worst attack in the competition and have struggled to put points on some of the worst defensive outfits in recent weeks.
It's a mystery how they have done enough to qualify for the finals based on the numbers alone, but they have, and unless Adam O'Brien's side can find rapid improvement, they can forget about a push any further.
Why they can win the premiership
The Titans are an incredibly dangerous second-phase team. They sit fifth in the competition for offloads, but second out of all those teams who have made the top eight.
With over 250 offloads for the season, it puts them at over ten per game, and while they will come up against better defences, if they can get that part of their own game right and play the risky style of footy which saw them flog the Warriors 44-0 last Sunday, then it's not off the cards Justin Holbrook's men could cause an upset.
They have some of the best in the game at doing it - players like David Fifita who bafflingly continues to be used off the bench and Jarrod Wallace. Fifita is fifth in the competition, while Wallace sits 12th with 33 of his own.
It's a big if, but second-phase play is the Titans' only real chance of making something happening. It'll look horrendous if it doesn't come off, but it's where they have to go.
Why they can't win the premiership
The Titans inability to beat top-six teams is alarming. While they have ran up 30 points time and time again against those teams outside the top six, it's a different story against the competition's top teams.
In nine attempts, they are yet to beat any of the six sides who ran away in the top half of the ladder.
It gets worse still, with their defence the major issue. They let in more than 36 points per game against those sides who they will come up against in the finals.
It's an embarrassing stat, one which puts them in the same defensive class as the Cowboys and Bulldogs, and they are next to no chance of winning finals games while it exists.