Currently, 12 clubs still have a mathematical chance of securing a spot in the top eight after Round 27, as the Premiership battle of 2024 comes down to the wire.

Thus far, the Storm and Panthers have secured their postseason positions, while the Roosters and Sharks are highly likely to reach the finals.

The Bulldogs are also strong contenders to participate in the post-season, along with the Cowboys and Sea Eagles, who've each surpassed the 30-point mark. However, there is a six-point difference between the third and eighth positions and another six-point differential between eighth and 12th.ย 

It isn't over until it's over, and with that said, let's take a closer look at the NRL playoff candidates and the most expected team to win the NRL Grand Final 2024.ย 

The Biggest NRL Grand Final Favorites

According to most top sportsbooks, three teams are highly favored for participation in this year's Grand Final. Remarkably, all three clubs have achieved this triumph at least once over the last seven years.

The Storm and the Panthers are currently inseparable regarding the odds of winning the Grand Final. They sit atop the table with 40 and 36 points, respectively. Both teams have the same odds of 3.25 to win the Grand Final, with the Roosters coming slightly under them with odds of 3.75.

The distance separating them from the pursuing teams is significant, with the Roosters and Sharks valued at 11.00 and 13.00, respectively. However, this doesn't reflect the current leaderboard, as both the Sharks and the Bulldogs hold a respected 34- and 32-point tally.ย 

When looking at historic outcomes, the teams ranked at the bottom of the eight or those just outside the finals have a minimal probability of winning. This is unsurprising, considering the last time a team outside the top four won the championship was in 1995.

Melbourne Storm

Every NRL player and spectator is well aware of the relentless nature of Craig Bellamy's team, and the iconic purple shirt has appeared in nine out of the previous 20 grand finals. The Storm now hold the top position on the table and show no signs of losing momentum as they enter the finals stage. This is further reinforced by the return of Cameron Munster and Ryan Papenhuyzen, who have fully recovered from their mid-season injuries.

Preventing the storm from winning the 2024 NRL Grand Final will prove difficult, as suggested by the best online betting sites, but if one team can, the Panthers are a strong candidate.ย 

NRL โ€“ Grand Final Winner 2024 Odds:ย 

    • Melbourne Storm @ $3.50
    • Penrith Panthers @ $3.50
    • Sydney Roosters @ $3.75
    • Canterbury Bulldogs @ $10.00
    • Cronulla Sharks @ $12.00
    • Manly Sea Eagles @ $19.00
    • North Queensland Cowboys @ $26.00ย 
    • St George/Illa Dragons @ $101.00
    • Dolphins @ $176.00
    • Brisbane Broncos @ $226.00ย 
    • Newcastle Knights @ $326.00
    • Canberra Raiders @ $501.00

Penrith Panthersย 

The Panthers are regarded as the most formidable club in the league, having reached the grand finals in the past four seasons. There is no evidence to indicate that Ivan Cleary's relentless team is unable or unwilling to achieve this feat again.

One red flag is waving in front of Penrith's cup glory hopes, and that's injuries!

The Panthers want their key players to be in good health, and Nathan Cleary has been dealing with a hamstring ailment this season, causing him to be out of action for a significant stretch. As a result, the talented halfback has only been able to participate in eight games.ย 

Any further misfortune with injuries may potentially weaken Penrith's position in September.

History Tells Us to Back the Top Four

Historical data strongly suggests that the two teams who make it to the Grand Final will likely finish in the top four. Since the finals system was modified in 2012, there have only been two occasions where teams outside of the top four have made it to the Grand Final.

The Bulldogs (seventh in 2014) and the Cowboys (eighth in 2017) were defeated decisively in the underdog position.ย 

Although it has been 29 years since a team outside the top four has won a championship, simply securing a top-four position does not ensure victory in the Grand Final.

Historically, winning in week one has significantly predicted which team would ultimately win the Provan Summons Trophy. Since 2012, just one team that lost in week one has gone on to win the Grand Final.ย 

Who Will Reach the 2024 NRL Grand Final?

With just three rounds remaining, the composition of the finals is still uncertain. However, considering the current rankings, it is quite likely that Melbourne and Penrith will compete against one other in the Grand Final in a replay of the 2020 decider.

Both teams have had challenges due to injuries to important players but consistently outperformed other teams. Additionally, they have experienced players and coaching staff with a proven success track record.

NRL Grand Final Winner: The Biggest Underdog Threat

Among the teams not in the top four, the Bulldogs appear to be the most probable to disrupt the established order. This is due to their exceptional performance in the second half of the season. They have confidence in their ability to compete against teams like Sydney or Cronulla, as they have already defeated both during the regular season. Additionally, they have the highly acclaimed player Stephen Crichton, who is currently in excellent condition.

Cameron Ciraldo's defensive strategy has been prominently showcased this season, leading to the Bulldogs conceding the second-fewest points, surpassed only by the Panthers. Canterbury-Bankstown has a resilient and tenacious quality that has been absent in previous years, rendering them competitive in every match they participate in, thanks to Stephen Crichton's exceptional leadership at the center position.