New South Wales have been predicted to take out a narrow victory in Game 1 of the State of Origin series, according to Stats Insider.

Australia's leader in sports predictive analytics, Stats Insider's Damian Souness told Zero Tackle TV that Game 1 in Adelaide should be a close-run affair after 10,000 simulations of the series opener could only split the sides by a single point.

"We are expecting a really close game for Game 1," Souness said.

"Neutral territory makes it interesting, but we do have New South Wales as the favourites. Based on our model, we run 10,000 simulations per game and for the first game we have New South Wales as a 57 per cent chance of winning the game.

"Our predicted score [New South Wales winning by 19 points to 18] is based on the average of each team's score over 10,000 simulations, so that's where we get the one-point difference. 19-18 is not a common score, but when you average out all those results, that's what we end up with," Souness said.

"It's all data-driven, hundreds of different inputs go into it, and what we are looking to do is determine the most likely outcomes. Then what we use with those results is to match them against the bookmaker odds and try to find value in the market.

"For New South Wales, they are a 57 per cent chance of winning Game 1, they have essentially won 5,700 simulations."

The bookmakers see it the same way heading into the opening game of the series, with the Blues a narrow favourite to turn the tide following last year's disastrous State of Origin result.

In what will be Billy Slater's second Origin series in charge of the Maroons, both sides have made surprising selections, with the Blues calling up Tevita Pangai Junior, and the Maroons opting to axe a number of experienced veterans.

The Blues have been rocked in the lead-up to the game with an injury to Latrell Mitchell, who suffered a calf strain, while Nathan Cleary is battling an infected tooth, but is expected to play.

While Souness said that Mitchell's absence had an immediate impact on the probability of the Blues winning, it didn't turn the tide in favour of Queensland.

"Mitchell's absence in particular had an immediate impact on our probability. We saw that equate to about a point's difference when you look at the two teams, so it's pretty significant with him coming out," Souness said.

"You can't forget New South Wales are stacked with star power. You have [Tom] Trbojevic, [James] Tedesco and then [Nathan] Cleary - who is under an injury cloud, but at the moment we are assuming that he will play - if he was to come out then the model would re-run and we'd have a different outcome.

"Even without Latrell Mitchell, we still have New South Wales as the more likely winner."

Mitchell's absence having an impact carries little in the way of surprise, with he and Tom Trbojevic being the Blues' best on ground during their last Origin series played in 2021. Both missed 2022 through injury.

Stats Insider have also predicted the probability of try-scorers for each state, with Josh Addo-Carr and Selwyn Cobbo coming in as the top options, but a healthy amount of value in the other options presented.

"The wingers, centres and fullbacks are more likely to score a try, and what we have come to is no surprise. We have two wingers as the most likely try-scorers on Wednesday night. Josh Addo-Carr is our most likely any-time try-scorer and first try-scorer with a 46.5 per cent chance of him scoring anytime, and 9.5 per cent of first try. For Queensland, Selwyn Cobbo is 38.5 per cent chance of an any-time try and 7.9 per cent chance of the first try," Souness said on the top try-scoring chances for Game 1.

Game 1 kicks off at 8:05pm (AEST) - 7:35pm (local) on Wednesday evening at the Adelaide Oval.

For a full rundown of State of Origin and NRL predictions, check out Stats Insider and watch the full interview with Zero Tackle TV in the video player above.

Follow State of Origin Game 1 statistics LIVE on ZeroTackle.com during the game.