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Two-week warning: The best and worst possible finishing position for every NRL team

The finals are approaching! Here is where your team can finish.

Published by
Scott Pryde

The NRL finals are only a fortnight away, but there are still plenty of battles up and down the ladder for final positioning.

Here is the best and worst case scenario for your team with two weeks to run.

1. Melbourne Storm

Current position: 1st (42 points, + 499)
Run home: Parramatta Eels, Cronulla Sharks
Best case finish: 1st
Worst case finish: 3rd

Realistically, the Melbourne Storm aren't going to be overthrown at the top of the NRL ladder. This is a side who have won 19 straight matches and more or less seem to be on cruise control.

Even in the worst possible case, to finish third, the Rabbitohs would need to win both of those contests, Melbourne would need to lose both of theirs, and the for and against turnaround would need to be a staggering 223 points. In short, it's not going to happen.

Penrith winning both would elevate them to first though, should the Storm lose to both the Eels and Sharks in the final two weeks.

TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA - JULY 23: Brandon Smith of the Storm warms up before the start of the round 19 NRL match between the North Queensland Cowboys and the Melbourne Storm at QCB Stadium, on July 23, 2021, in Townsville, Australia. (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)

Predicted finish: 1st

2. Penrith Panthers

Current position: 2nd (40 points, +342)
Run home: Wests Tigers, Parramatta Eels
Best case finish: 1st
Worst case finish: 3rd

Penrith's win over the Rabbitohs on Friday evening should mean they will hold onto second, although the last-round match against the Eels could still serve as a banana skin.

Catching Melbourne will be an extremely difficult one though, given Melbourne just don't look like losing. The for and against turn around is simply too large unless the Storm drop both of their games.

Predicted finish: 2nd

3. South Sydney Rabbitohs

Current position: 3rd (38 points, +276)
Run home: Sydney Roosters, St George Illawarra Dragons
Best case finish: 1st
Worst case finish: 3rd

The Rabbitohs have an outside chance of finishing second, but they would probably need to win both of their games by cricket scores, and have the Panthers slip up heavily at least once. Technically they can get to first, but realistically, it won't happen.

They can't be caught from behind though, given the Roosters and Sea Eagles are still six and eight points off the pace.

Their clash against the Roosters could tell us plenty however, with that shaping as game of the week in Round 24.

Predicted finish: 3rd

4. Sydney Roosters

Current position: 4th (32 points, +159)
Run home: South Sydney Rabbitohs, Canberra Raiders
Best case finish: 4th
Worst case finish: 6th

The tri-colours certainly don't have an easy run home, and their mounting injury crisis is only getting worse following Sunday's win over the Dragons. Nat Butcher was unable to finish the game with a leg injury, while Adam Keighran lasted just minutes after a HIA.

Beating the Dragons is one thing, but the Rabbitohs and desperate Raiders will be another. Hard to see them winning both games to the finish line.

Predicted finish: 5th

TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA - JULY 09: James Tedesco of the Roosters runs the ball during the round nine NRL match between the North Queensland Cowboys and the Sydney Roosters at QCB Stadium on July 09, 2020 in Townsville, Australia. (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)

5. Manly Sea Eagles

Current position: 5th (30 points, +206)
Run home: Canterbury Bulldogs, North Queensland Cowboys
Best case finish: 4th
Worst case finish: 6th

The Roosters being set to lose one is the Sea Eagles' gain. They play the Bulldogs and Cowboys, two games they should win whether Tom Trbojevic is there or not.

That means they are going to jump to 34 points, and with a for and against already superior to the Roosters, provided the tri-colours drop at least one as expected, Manly will have the valuable double chance - although how valuable that is when it's a qualifying final against the Storm is up for debate.

Predicted finish: 4th

6. Parramatta Eels

Current position: 6th (30 points, +131)
Run home: Melbourne Storm, Penrith Panthers
Best case finish: 4th
Worst case finish: 6th

The Eels have the hardest run home in the competition, playing both the Storm and Panthers in the final two weeks. That said, their form hasn't been good enough to go close to competing with either of those sides as they push for the minor premiership and more.

Brad Arthur's side are likely to enter the finals on the back of two straight losses. Luckily, even having snapped a four-game losing streak this weekend against the Cowboys, they can't be caught by the seventh-placed Knights.

Predicted finish: 6th

7. Newcastle Knights

Current position: 7th (24 points, -131)
Run home: Gold Coast Titans, Brisbane Broncos
Best case finish: 7th
Worst case finish: 10th

It would take an absolute calamity for the Knights to miss the finals, but their for and against is such that they'll still need a win to ensure themselves of a spot. The only way they miss out on the eight is if they lose both games, the Titans win both, and one of Cronulla beating the Storm or the Raiders beating the Roosters occurs.

The Titans are certainly not a certainty, but even with their incredibly poor attack, one would expect them to get the better of the Broncos in the final round.

Cannon fodder in the finals though? Likely.

Predicted finish: 7th

TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA - JUNE 27: Kalyn Ponga and Mitchell Pearce of the Knights looks on during the round seven NRL match between the North Queensland Cowboys and the Newcastle Knights at QCB Stadium on June 27, 2020 in Townsville, Australia. (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)

8. Cronulla Sharks

Current position: 8th (20 points, -32)
Run home: Brisbane Broncos, Melbourne Storm
Best case finish: 7th
Worst case finish: 13th

The best case scenario for the Sharks is that they win both games against the Broncos and Storm, have the Knights lose at least one of their games and leapfrog to seventh.

However, it could still yet get very messy for Josh Hannay's side. Should the Titans beat the Knights, the Warriors beat both the Raiders and the Titans, the Raiders beat the Roosters and the Dragons and Tigers win both of their games by heavy, heavy margins, as well as Cronulla losing both of theirs by heavy margins, the Sharks could still end up as low as 13th (mathematically - the chance of the Tigers overhauling their for and against differential is just about nil.)

What's more likely though is a win against the Broncos and a loss to the Storm. That would leave them sweating on the Warriors beating both the Raiders and Titans due to the for and against difference, with the Raiders and Titans also losing to the Roosters and Knights respectively, meaning the Sharks and Warriors would both be on 22, and the Titans and Raiders on 20.

Predicted finish: 9th

9. Gold Coast Titans

Current position: 9th (20 points, -46)
Run home: Newcastle Knights, New Zealand Warriors
Best case finish: 8th
Worst case finish: 13th

Worst case, like the Sharks above them, the Titans could drop all the way to 13th spot with two losses and the Warriors, Raiders, Dragons and Tigers all recording a couple of big wins.

Two wins should push them into the top eight though, and that's what I'll tip. Even one win might be enough if the for and against turnaround to Cronulla (who could get blown out in the final round against the Storm) is good enough, and provided The Raiders or Warriors don't win both games, although it would still then come down to for and against.

Predicted finish: 8th

10. Canberra Raiders

Current position: 10th (20 points, -85)
Run home: New Zealand Warriors, Sydney Roosters
Best case finish: 8th
Worst case finish: 13th

The Raiders need two big wins so squeeze into the finals. If they finish on 24 points and the Titans and Sharks don't, they will go into the top eight. Otherwise, it may come down to for and against, should the Titans and Sharks manage to win two from two - unfortunately their for and against is well behind that of the Titans and Sharks, so one win is unlikely to do the job.

At the other end of the line, should the Warriors win both of their games, and the Dragons and Tigers do the same, the Raiders could fall all the way to 13th.

They might beat the Warriors, but that is unlikely to be enough to rise from their current spot.

Predicted finish: 10th

WAGGA WAGGA, AUSTRALIA - MAY 08: Sebastian Kris of the Raiders runs with the ball during the round nine NRL match between the Canberra Raiders and the Newcastle Knights at , on May 08, 2021, in Wagga Wagga, Australia. (Photo by Kelly Defina/Getty Images)

11. New Zealand Warriors

Current position: 11th (18 points, -115)
Run home: Canberra Raiders, Gold Coast Titans
Best case finish: 8th
Worst case finish: 15th

Two wins from two could help the Warriors into the finals, but they'd need everything to go right. The Raiders would have to lose to the Roosters, the Titans must lose to the Knights, and the Sharks would have to lose both of their games.

It'd be a finals qualification for the ages.

They could face a trip to as low as 15th though with two heavy losses, although for and against differentials make that unlikely, with the Dragons and Tigers able to go past with a single win, but the Broncos and Cowboys both needing two very heavy wins to make it as high as 11th.

I can't see the Warriors winning either game, but they should stay out of the bottom four.

Predicted finish: 12th

12. St George Illawarra Dragons

Current position: 12th (18 points, -126)
Run home: North Queensland Cowboys, South Sydney Rabbitohs
Best case finish: 8th
Worst case finish: 15th

We are getting into the realms of impossibility now. For the Dragons to make the top eight, they'd need the Warriors to win both games, and the Titans, Raiders and Sharks to all lose both games. Then they'd need to win both of their own and have a for and against differential turnaround with the Warriors, with both of those ending up on 22 competition points.

At the other end, the Tigers could win one of their games and jump the Dragons, while the Broncos and Cowboys are only four points behind, so two from two by big margins could see the Dragons fall to 15th.

I can see the Dragons beating the Cowboys though, so they should sneak up a spot.

Predicted finish: 11th

13. Wests Tigers

Current position: 13th (18 points, -162)
Run home: Penrith Panthers, Canterbury Bulldogs
Best case finish: 8th
Worst case finish: 15th

Here is the maths of the Tigers making the top eight. It is bordering on the ridiculous. They need all of what the Dragons need (i.e. the Warriors winning both games against the Raiders and Titans, and the Titans, Raiders and Sharks to all lose both games), as well as the Dragons losing at least one game.

They would then need a for and against turnaround of 48 on the Warriors, who, let me remind you, would have just won both games. So, let's say the Warriors win both games by a single point, the Tigers would then need to average out at 25-point victories against both the Panthers and Bulldogs.

Anyway, back from fantasy land, the Tigers can still finish as low as 15th. Their for and against is better than the Broncos and Cowboys, but even then both of those sides would need to win both games. Even one of them winning both to send the Tigers down to 14th seems slim.

Predicted finish: 13th

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - JULY 04: Luke Brooks of the Tigers looks on after a Rabbitohs try during the round 16 NRL match between the Wests Tigers and the South Sydney Rabbitohs at Leichhardt Oval on July 04, 2021, in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

14. Brisbane Broncos

Current position: 14th (14 points, -254)
Run home: Cronulla Sharks, Newcastle Knights
Best case finish: 11th
Worst case finish: 15th

The Broncos and Cowboys will fight it out for 14th and 15th. The Broncos could technically go up to 11th, but there is virtually no chance unless the Warriors, Dragons and Tigers all lose both games by big margins.

They should hang onto 14th though even without another win. It's hard to see them losing by bigger margins to the Sharks and Knights than the Cowboys will to the Dragons and Sea Eagles.

Predicted finish: 14th

15. North Queensland Cowboys

Current position: 15th (14 points -272)
Run home: St George Illawarra Dragons, Manly Sea Eagles
Best case finish: 11th
Worst case finish: 15th

As just mentioned, the Cowboys, like the Broncos, can still get to 11th, but they are more likely to stay exactly where they are. If they can force an upset win and the Broncos don't pick up a win, then the Cowboys could go to 14th.

Predicted finish: 15th

16. Canterbury Bulldogs

Current position: 16th (6 points, -390)
Run home: Manly Sea Eagles, Wests Tigers
Best case finish: 16th
Worst case finish: 16th

It's been a dismal season for the Bulldogs, of that there can be no two ways around.

Canterbury face the Sea Eagles and Tigers in their final two weeks, but can't escape the wooden spoon even with two wins and all results going their way.

They will look ahead of 2022 when six signatures arrive at Belmore.

Predicted finish: 16th

Published by
Scott Pryde