The NRL season is down to just a fortnight ago, and the race for final spots on the ladder is still on with a series of big games to determine who will make the knockout rounds.
Here is how the final two rounds will play out, with every team's best and worst-case scenarios.
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For the following calculations, we have used a maximum of a 40-point for and against differential per game played.
1. Melbourne Storm
Current position: 1st, 18 wins, 4 losses, 42 points, +213
Run home: North Queensland Cowboys (away), Brisbane Broncos (away)
The Storm have locked up the minor premiership with two weeks to go and are resting a majority of their best 17 for this week's game against the Cowboys.
They could well do the same against Brisbane in Round 27, with both of those teams desperate for wins to improve their standing.
Best-case finish: 1st
Worst case finish: 1st
Likely finish: 1st
2. Sydney Roosters
Current position: 2nd, 15 wins, 7 losses, 36 points, +269
Run home: Canberra Raiders (home), South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
The Roosters are still an outside chance of finishing as low as fifth, although they'd need things to blow up spectacularly.
Games against the Raiders and Rabbitohs, though, should allow them to cling onto second spot. We have them winning both and hosting a qualifying final.
Best-case finish: 2nd
Worst case finish: 5th
Likely finish: 2nd
3. Cronulla Sharks
Current position: 3rd, 15 wins, 7 losses, 36 points, +204
Run home: New Zealand Warriors (home), Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Two big games to finish the season for the Sharks, who, at their best, look a premiership contender. Whether they can find that, particularly against traditional bogey team the Sea Eagles in Round 27, remains to be seen.
We have them remaining in the top four on for and against, even with a loss in that game.
Best-case finish: 2nd
Worst case finish: 5th
Likely finish: 4th
4. Penrith Panthers
Current position: 4th, 15 wins, 7 losses, 36 points, +158
Run home: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home), Gold Coast Titans (home)
The Panthers, coming off a shock loss against the Raiders, have a fairly simple run home but could still drop out of the top four if they can't turn things around.
They have the worst for and against of the teams they are equal with ahead, but we expect them to finish third with a pair of wins and the Sharks falling short against Manly.
Best-case finish: 2nd
Worst case finish: 5th
Likely finish: 3rd
5. Canterbury Bulldogs
Current position: 5th, 14 wins, 8 losses, 34 points, +146
Run home: Manly Sea Eagles (away), North Queensland Cowboys (home)
The last two weeks of the season couldn't get any bigger for the Bulldogs as they clash with the two teams directly behind them.
Losses could ultimately see them hit the road for Week 1 of the finals, but we are tipping they will pull a pair of wins out of the fire to hang onto fifth spot.
Best-case finish: 2nd
Worst case finish: 7th
Likely finish: 5th
6. North Queensland Cowboys
Current position: 6th, 13 wins, 9 losses, 32 points, +43
Run home: Melbourne Storm (home), Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
The Cowboys have a difficult run home. The Storm might be resting most of their side this weekend, but we are still tipping them to pick up the win against a Cowboys side who have been inconsistent at best. A fired-up Bulldogs on the road in the final round should be too much to handle.
That leaves the Cowboys dropping to seventh and facing a road game in Week 1 of the finals - a disappointing result for Todd Payten's side, who seemed a shout for the top four not all that long ago with two byes and six of their final eight games at home up their sleeve.
Best-case finish: 4th
Worst case finish: 7th
Likely finish: 7th
7. Manly Sea Eagles
Current position: 7th, 12 wins, 9 losses, 1 draw, 31 points, +121
Run home: Canterbury Bulldogs (home), Cronulla Sharks (home)
The Sea Eagles are another club with a tricky run to the finish line. We have them beating the Sharks in Round 27 but falling short against Canterbury this weekend.
Two wins could push them as high as fifth, while they can no longer miss the eight in the worst case.
Best-case finish: 5th
Worst case finish: 8th
Likely finish: 6th
8. St George Illawarra Dragons
Current position: 8th, 11 wins, 11 losses, 28 points, -120
Run home: Parramatta Eels (away), Canberra Raiders (home)
On paper, the Dragons look like a criminally undeserving finals team with a for and against of negative 120. Once you realise all of that came in two games against the Roosters, though, it's not so bad.
Inconsistent as they have been, they have the inside running on a finals spot. Two wins would guarantee it, and one win would require the Broncos, Dolphins and Knights behind them (but with a better for and against) to, at best, split their results over the final weeks.
Still, we are backing the Dragons to break their six-year run without finals footy.
Best-case finish: 7th
Worst case finish: 12th
Likely finish: 8th
9. Brisbane Broncos
Current position: 9th, 10 wins, 12 losses, 26 points, +2
Run home: The Dolphins (home), Melbourne Storm (home)
Despite Kevin Walters emphatically declaring there was no doubt his side would play finals after their win over Parramatta last weekend, they do need the Dragons to slip up at least once ahead of them.
Then there is the added problem of playing Melbourne in the final round of the season. They have a horror record against the Storm, and with that all combined, it's hard to see the Broncos sneaking in.
Either way, this week's game against the Dolphins is the biggest so far between the two clubs.
Best-case finish: 8th
Worst case finish: 13th
Likely finish: 9th
10. The Dolphins
Current position: 10th, 10 wins, 12 losses, 26 points, -27
Run home: Brisbane Broncos (away), Newcastle Knights (away)
The Dolphins' season will all but end unless they can beat the Broncos this weekend. Unfortunately for them, we can't see a way over the line, although if they do, they play the struggling Knights in the final round.
They would be relying on the Dragons slipping up, but this week's game is the biggest in club history.
Best-case finish: 8th
Worst case finish: 13th
Likely finish: 10th
11. Newcastle Knights
Current position: 11th, 10 wins, 12 losses, 26 points, -70
Run home: Gold Coast Titans (home), The Dolphins (home)
The Knights need to win both of their games on the run-in because, while they have a for and against that's better than the Dragons, they are well short of the Broncos and Dolphins.
Two wins, and plenty of results going their way - that is, one win for the Dragons, Broncos and Dolphins at the most - is the only way they can qualify.
Best-case finish: 8th
Worst case finish: 13th
Likely finish: 11th
12. Canberra Raiders
Current position: 12th, 10 wins, 12 losses, 26 points, -131
Run home: Sydney Roosters (away), St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
The Raiders can still mathematically make the finals, but that's all it is. They have the worst for and against of all the teams in contention for eighth spot, so they will likely need the Dragons to drop both of their games and for the Broncos, Knights and Dolphins to drop both of theirs.
Given fixtures, that would mean the Broncos need to beat the Dolphins and lose to the Storm, the Dolphins need to beat the Knights after losing to the Broncos, and the Knights would need to beat the Titans before losing to the Dolphins. There are other possibilities, but it's in the same probability level.
Make sense? Good.
Best-case finish: 8th
Worst case finish: 13th
Likely finish: 12th
13. Gold Coast Titans
Current position: 13th, 8 wins, 14 losses, 22 points, -140
Run home: Newcastle Knights (away), Penrith Panthers (away)
A very disappointing campaign for the Titans means they are the first team here out of finals contention. Hard to see them winning either of their games on the run in either. AJ Brimson is out, and there is nothing to play for.
We have them dropping into the bottom four.
Best-case finish: 11th
Worst case finish: 15th
Likely finish: 14th
14. New Zealand Warriors
Current position: 14th, 8 wins, 14 losses, 1 draw, 21 points, -64
Run home: Cronulla Sharks (away), bye
The Warriors should be up and about for this week's game, the last for Shaun Johnson, but it's hard to see them getting the job done against a desperate Shire outfit.
The last-round bye should enable them to escape the bottom four.
Best-case finish: 13th
Worst case finish: 15th
Likely finish: 13th
15. South Sydney Rabbitohs
Current position: 15th, 7 wins, 15 losses, 20 points, -158
Run home: Penrith Panthers (away), Sydney Roosters (home)
A supremely difficult season for the Rabbitohs comes to an end with two games against top-four opposition.
Fair to say they should have the doors blown off in both games with a pair of losses, but they will hold onto 15th spot. Their for and against will ensure it.
Best-case finish: 13th
Worst case finish: 17th
Likely finish: 15th
16. Parramatta Eels
Current position: 16th, 5 wins, 17 losses, 16 points, -193
Run home: St George Illawarra Dragons (home), Wests Tigers (away)
On for and against, the Eels only need to win their last round game against the Wests Tigers to ensure they avoid the wooden spoon. A win against the Dragons in Round 26 would help their cause, though.
Best-case finish: 15th
Worst case finish: 17th
Likely finish: 17th
17. Wests Tigers
Current position: 17th, 6 wins, 17 losses, 16 points, -253
Run home: Bye, Parramatta Eels (home)
As mentioned above, the Tigers losing to the Eels in the last round will ensure they wind up with the wooden spoon. They have the bye this weekend and could move two points ahead pending the Eels' result against the Dragons, but have a terrible for and against.
Spoon Bowl in Round 27. Lock it in.
Best-case finish: 15th
Worst case finish: 17th
Likely finish: 16th
Likely final ladder
1. Melbourne Storm (46)
2. Sydney Roosters (40)
3. Penrith Panthers (40)
4. Cronulla Sharks (38)
5. Canterbury Bulldogs (38)
6. Manly Sea Eagles (33)
7. North Queensland Cowboys (32)
8. St George Illawarra Dragons (32)
9. Brisbane Broncos (28)
10. The Dolphins (28)
11. Newcastle Knights (28)
12. Canberra Raiders (26)
13. New Zealand Warriors (23)
14. Gold Coast Titans (22)
15. South Sydney Rabbitohs (20)
16. Wests Tigers (20)
17. Parramatta Eels (16)
Likely Week 1 finals
Qualifying final 1: Melbourne Storm (1) vs Cronulla Sharks (4) at AAMI Park
Qualifying final 2: Sydney Roosters (2) vs Penrith Panthers (3) at Allianz Stadium
Elimination final 1: Canterbury Bulldogs (5) vs St George Illawarra Dragons (8) at ANZ Stadium
Elimination final 2: Manly Sea Eagles (6) vs North Queensland Cowboys (7) at 4 Pines Park
