Three rounds to go: What each contender needs to make finals, full scenarios update, likely final ladder

There are just three rounds remaining in the 2023 NRL season, and only three teams are mathematically locked into the top eight.

While more teams have realistically punched their spot into the finals, there are still plenty of questions to be answered in the final three weeks.

As it stands, only five teams are out of mathematical contention.

Here is all the latest on the NRL's run home.

1. Penrith Panthers

Current position: 1st, 38 points (16 wins) + 289
Remaining games: Gold Coast Titans (away), Parramatta Eels (away), North Queensland Cowboys (home)
What they need to do
The Panthers are now officially locked into the top four after their Round 24 win over the Manly Sea Eagles.

A single win will be enough to book a home qualifying final too with a four-point gap in place to the third-placed New Zealand Warriors combined with a for and against advantage of 160.

Best case finish: 1st
Worst case finish: 4th
Likely finish: 1st

2. Brisbane Broncos

Current position: 2nd, 38 points (17 wins) + 213
Remaining games: Bye, Canberra Raiders (away), Melbourne Storm (home)
What they need to do

The Broncos have a guaranteed two points this weekend, and with a for and against advantage of almost 100 to the third-placed Warriors, that, even if they lost both of their remaining games, should be enough to book a home qualifying final, although they can still technically finish third.

While Melbourne can technically catch the Panthers, they can't catch the Broncos because of the bye.

They would need Penrith to slip up to earn the minor premiership.

Best case finish: 1st
Worst case finish: 3rd
Likely finish: 2nd

3. New Zealand Warriors

Current position: 3rd, 34 points (14 wins) + 129
Remaining games: Manly Sea Eagles (home), St George Illawarra Dragons (home), The Dolphins (away)
What they need to do

The Warriors are now booked into the top eight even if they were to lose all three games. While all of the teams below them to ninth spot coul overtake them, the Knights play the Rabbitohs this weekend, meaning that only one of those sides could pass or draw level with the Warriors.

The Auckland-based side look primed to win all three of their games though so should hold onto third spot.

Best case finish: 1st
Worst case finish: 8th
Likely finish: 3rd

4. Melbourne Storm

Current position: 4th, 32 points (13 wins) + 127
Remaining games: St George Illawarra Dragons (away), Gold Coast Titans (home), Brisbane Broncos (away)
What they need to do

The Storm are the highest-ranked team who can still miss the finals, but it would require a miracle. To miss the finals, they would need to lose all three games, have the Sharks win at least one with a for and against turnaround of 18, have the Raiders win at least two, have the Knights win at least two but lose to the Rabbitohs, have the Rabbitohs win all three and then have the Cowboys win all three games.

If one of those fails, then the Eels beating the Roosters and the Panthers could leave the Storm vulnerable, but it would require a 108-point for and against turnaround. Realistically, the Storm are locked into the finals.

Best case finish: 2nd
Worst case finish: 10th
Likely finish: 4th

5. Cronulla Sharks

Current position: 5th, 30 points (12 wins), + 110
Remaining games: North Queensland Cowboys (away), Newcastle Knights (away), Canberra Raiders (home)
What they need to do

The Sharks moved a step closer to securing their spot in the top eight during Round 24 with a big win over the Titans.

It has improved their for and against and handed them a vital two points. They certainly aren't there yet though, and we've got them needing to beat the Raiders on the final day of the season to sneak in, factoring in that they won't beat the Knights or Cowboys in the next fortnight.

That said, 32 points is shaping up as the mark, so a win anywhere in the final three weeks, given they have the best for and against of all the contenders, should be enough.

Best case finish: 3rd
Worst case finish: 12th
Likely finish: 7th

6. Canberra Raiders

Current position: 6th, 30 points (12 wins) - 110
Remaining games: Canterbury Bulldogs (home), Brisbane Broncos (home), Cronulla Sharks (away)
What they need to do

Win games of rugby league. The Raiders were, by Ricky Stuart's own admission, "embarrassing" on Sunday against the Storm, and their for and against now reads -110. It means they won't be getting to the finals on 32 points.

They likely need to win two of their final three on a difficult run home, and we just can't see it happening with the Broncos and Sharks away on the menu.

It's likely shaping up though that the Sharks-Raiders game could be knockout footy come early, so a wonderful way to close out the season regardless... Although nerve-wracking for fans of the two clubs.

If the Raiders win three from three, they could still get to third on the table.

Best case finish: 3rd
Worst case finish: 12th
Likely finish: 9th

7. Newcastle Knights

Current position: 7th, 29 points (11 wins) + 110
Remaining games: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home), Cronulla Sharks (home), St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
What they need to do

The Knights just keep on winning, and their form is so good that we now have them hosting an elimination final in the first week of the finals.

That will require them to win at least one of their next two, though, and hold up their end of the bargain against the Dragons when they hit the road to close the season. The loss of Jackson Hastings could be catastrophic.

Three losses would still be terminal for the Knights, and even one win out of their last three won't be enough to make the finals. Based on our predictions, if they do drop that extra game and finish on 31 behind a gaggle of teams on 32, the Raiders will earn a reprieve.

Best case finish: 3rd
Worst case finish: 12th
Likely finish: 6th

8. South Sydney Rabbitohs

Current position: 8th, 28 points (12 wins), + 92
Remaining games: Newcastle Knights (away), bye, Sydney Roosters (home)
What they need to do

Because of their bye that still remains, the Rabbitohs can drop no lower than 11th spot on the table, and one win out of their last two would be enough to see them into the top eight more than likely.

We have them winning both of their games, though and hosting an elimination final as a result.

Best case finish: 4th
Worst case finish: 11th
Likely finish: 5th

9. North Queensland Cowboys

Current position: 9th, 28 points (11 wins) + 32
Remaining games: Cronulla Sharks (home), The Dolphins (away), Penrith Panthers (away)
What they need to do

The Cowboys' Round 24 bye has them on the edge of the top eight, and we have them sneaking in on for and against, knocking the Raiders out.

They will certainly need the Raiders to win no more than one of their last three (or other teams immediately above them to lose their way), but if the Cowboys can beat the Sharks and Dolphins in the next fortnight, they will probably play finals football from eighth spot.

Best case finish: 4th
Worst case finish: 12th
Likely finish: 8th

10. Parramatta Eels

Current position: 10th, 26 points + 21
Remaining games: Sydney Roosters (home), Penrith Panthers (away), bye
What they need to do

The Eels season is likely over with the loss of Mitchell Moses to a facial injury. They can still certainly make the finals, but beating the Panthers without Moses seems as unlikely as it gets with 32 points likely to be the mark.

To make the finals, they need to win both games and then hope the mark doesn't miraculously move up to 34, as unlikely as that seems.

Best case finish: 5th
Worst case finish: 14th
Likely finish: 12th

11. Sydney Roosters

Current position: 11th, 26 points (10 wins) - 84
Remaining games: Parramatta Eels (away), Wests Tigers (home), South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
What they need to do

The Roosters kept their finals hopes alive with another win over the weekend, and their run home means they can't be written off. Their for and against will work against them, but it's still better than where the Raiders currently sit.

Simply put, the Roosters must win all three games, and win them well. If they do that, then they are hoping the at least two of the Cowboys, Rabbitohs, Knights, Raiders or Sharks slip up in a big way. Their best hope is likely that the Cowboys and Rabbitohs lose big.

Best case finish: 5th
Worst case finish: 14th
Likely finish: 10th

12. Manly Sea Eagles

Current position: 12th, 25 points (9 wins) - 47
Remaining games: New Zealand Warriors (away), Canterbury Bulldogs (away), Wests Tigers (home)
What they need to do

The Sea Eagles can still make the finals, but they'd need a lot to go right, including winning all three of their remaining games.

They would then need to have the Raiders lose all three, the Knights lose all three, the Rabbitohs to lose both of their games, the Cowboys to lose all three, the Eels to lose at least one, and the Roosters to lose at least two.

In short, it's not happening.

Best case finish: 6th
Worst case finish: 15th
Likely finish: 11th

13. Gold Coast Titans

Current position: 13th, 22 points (8 wins) - 83
Remaining games: Penrith Panthers (home), Melbourne Storm (away), Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
What they need to do

The Titans are the first team out of mathematical finals contention - they can get to 28 points, but given the Rabbitohs currently sit there with a bye to come, that is impossible to be the mark now.

It means the Gold Coast are playing for pride and to see if they can get themselves up to tenth spot on the table. Games against the Panthers and Storm could get ugly though.

Best case finish: 10th
Worst case finish: 16th
Likely finish: 13th

14. The Dolphins

Current position: 14th, 22 points (8 wins) - 110
Remaining games: Wests Tigers (away), North Queensland Cowboys (home), New Zealand Warriors (home)
What they need to do

Like the Titans, the Dolphins are now also out of mathematical contention. It has been a brave inaugural season for the club though and they will look to finish on a high note.

Best case finish: 10th
Worst case finish: 16th
Likely finish: 14th

15. Canterbury Bulldogs

Current position: 15th, 20 points (7 wins), - 297
Remaining games: Canberra Raiders (away), Manly Sea Eagles (home), Gold Coast Titans (away)
What they need to do

The Bulldogs are just about locked into 15th spot on the table. To go up positions, they'll need two wins given their for and against, and to go down, they'd need the Dragons to win two. None of that looks overly likely.

At least they have now officially avoided the wooden spoon.

Best case finish: 12th
Worst case finish: 16th
Likely finish: 15th

16. St George Illawarra Dragons

Current position: 16th, 16 points (5 wins) - 157
Remaining games: Melbourne Storm (home), New Zealand Warriors (away), Newcastle Knights (home)
What they need to do

Given their run home, the Dragons will be unlikely to win another game this season. It probably won't matter and they will avoid the spoon even doing that.

Best case finish: 13th
Worst case finish: 17th
Likely finish: 16th

17. Wests Tigers

Current position: 17th, 12 points (3 wins) - 225
Remaining games: The Dolphins (home), Sydney Roosters (away), Manly Sea Eagles (away)
What they need to do

The Tigers will be out to grab a win this weekend to at least have something to write home about in the final weeks of the season. They are unlikely to win either of their last two and are all but destined to pick up the spoon. To avoid it, they'd probably need to win all three given for and against.

Best case finish: 16th
Worst case finish: 17th
Likely finish: 17th