Heading into round 20 this weekend, the battle at the bottom of the table, i.e. to avoid finishing last, is almost as heated as the battle for the minor premiership.
Unlike last year, where the Sharks ‘led’ the race to the spoon from almost start to finish, this season’s ‘race’ is wide open, but it looks like the dreaded spoon might be headed west … or maybe north.
Unfortunately for fans of the western Sydney sides, the Tigers, Panthers and Eels, it looks like a three-way battle to avoid finishing last.
The only ‘competition’ may come from north of Sydney, in the form of the Newcastle Knights and the Gold Coast Titans.
The Eagles and Raiders are there, points-wise, but I’m willing to say right now they’ll produce enough wins in the run home to avoid the spoon. The Raiders have genuine aims of finishing in the top eight, although the Eagles probably look shot following their loss to the Cowboys.
This leaves five sides; Tigers, Eels, Panthers, Titans, Knights.
Now whenever discussing things of a negative nature, fans of those teams mentioned often react negatively. I want to make sure everyone knows that I am not having a ‘go’ at any side, but someone has to finish last.
Below is a look at each team’s run home. We would love to hear who you think will finish last, and why.
Due to the closeness of the competition, almost all of the below sides remain a chance at making the eight, although reality probably suggests there won’t be too many of the below around come September.
Eels (18 points) – Cowboys (a), Titans (a), Panthers (h), Roosters (a), Sea Eagles (a), Sharks (h), Raiders (h)
Although the Eels are four points clear of the current bottom side, the Tigers, they are in all sorts. They will be without arguably their best player this season in Corey Norman for anything from two weeks to the rest of the season, and will be without Chris Sandow for at least two weeks also.
Anthony Watmough and Will Hopoate have not produced anything like the performances they were expected to, leaving the likes of Nathan Peats and Tim Mannah to produce a miracle of sorts.
Games against the Titans, Panthers and Sharks are probably the most winnable games of those remaining, and you’d think two wins from the remaining six should see them avoid the spoon.
Verdict: Will avoid the spoon, fairly comfortably, but fans are already looking toward 2016 and the arrival of Kieran Foran and Beau Scott. 2015 has been an up and down season to say the least.
Panthers (18 points) – Raiders (h), Rabbits (a), Eels (a), Warriors (h), Dragons (a), Raiders (a), Knights (h)
The Panthers, much like the Eels, sit four points above the Tigers, which gives them a huge head start. Also like the Eels, a huge injury toll at the foot of the mountains has meant that the Panthers have never really got going this season.
With the likes of DWZ, Moylan, Idris and co. out for the remainder, or close to it, of the season, it’s hard to see the Panthers making any sort of run to the finals. That said, they have a series of games they can win coming up.
The Raiders, Eels, Dragons, Raiders and Knights are winnable games, and the Panthers should bank enough points to avoid the spoon.
Verdict: Injuries have destroyed the Panthers season. They haven’t had their 1, 6, 7 and 9 together nearly enough to form any sort of combination. They will avoid being dragged into the wooden spoon battle, however following the efforts of last season, 2015 has been a tough one for Panthers fans.
Knights (16 points) – Rabbits (a), Dragons (a), Roosters (h), Tigers (a), Storm (a), Bulldogs (h), Panthers (a)
At the conclusion of round four, there wouldn’t have been too many willing to say the Knights would be well and truly in the battle to avoid finishing last. They Like many on this list, the Knights have had a tough run with injuries, however they’re in pretty decent shape with seven rounds remaining.
Games against the Dragons, Tigers and Panthers shape as almost must win contests for the Knights. They only have two home games between now and the end of their season. I’m willing to say they will not be hosting a home final in 2015.
I have no idea why the Knights have gone backwards so quickly. Gidley, Uate, Gagai, Mata’utia, McManus is not the worst backline in the competition, and in the Sims brothers and Beau Scott, they have plenty up front. This just isn’t Newcastle’s season.
Verdict: Newcastle are in a real fight to avoid collecting the spoon. If they cannot beat the Tigers, and cause an upset somewhere else, they may finish last. Huge questions need to be asked about their lack of performance after round five, as their roster has more than enough talent to push for finals footy.
Titans (16 points) – Broncos (a), Eels (h), Storm (a), Bulldogs (a), Raiders (h), Dragons (h), Cowboys (a)
Prior to round one, the Titans were almost unbackable favourites to finish last. They endured an off-season from hell, and their roster, although talented, lacked the genuine class of the likes of the Roosters, Broncos and Cowboys.
A home game against the Eels is a must-win contest, as the Titans have a difficult run home. The Dragons and Raiders are their most likely source of points, and I wouldn’t be confident in tipping them to beat either.
Titan’s fans can be forgiven for looking forward to 2016 after a tough season, but having missed out on securing a marquee signing next season, I’m not sure how bright the outlook is. David Shillington is a good signing, and the re-signings of Elgey and Roberts are huge, but they need to get busy on the recruitment front and sign some diamonds from the rough.
Verdict: The Titans fought bravely for sections of the season, but run a very real risk of finishing last. Josh Hoffman, Aidan Sezer and co. are going to have to catch fire and produce Jarryd Hayne-like performances if they’re to make any impact for the rest of the season. Avoiding the wooden spoon may be a win from here.
Tigers (14 points) – Roosters (h), Storm (h), Raiders (a), Knights (h), Sharks (a), Warriors (h), Dragons (a)
The Tigers MUST find at least two wins from their remaining fixtures if they’re to avoid finishing last. Going on current form, it’s hard to see where they will come from, but the game against the Knights is a game they have to win.
As per every other side on this list, they have had huge troubles with injuries, but I believe the side has struggled to adapt to Jason Taylor’s game-plan. Players like Moses and Brookes need to be let off the leash per say.
Let’s be honest though, this side has not been assembled to win the title in 2015, they’re a side with views to the future. That said, 2015 has surely been a huge disappointment for everyone at the club.
Verdict: The Tigers have a tough run in, and despite the obvious talent of the likes of Tedesco, Farah and Woods, I can’t see them winning too many games. On their day they could stun the likes of the Sharks or Dragons, but it’s hard to predict which Tigers side will turn up. Will be in a shootout with the Titans and Knights to avoid the spoon.
Side Comment
Injuries obviously have a HUGE impact on performance and results. It’s very VERY difficult to win a competition without the large majority of your top choice talent available. All the sides mentioned above have had huge injury lists, much like the Sharks last season. No wonder teams spend so much time and money on preventing and rebahing injuries.
