The NRL 2024 run home: Every teams fixtures, finals chances

There are just ten rounds to go in the 2024 NRL season, and the race to the finals is well and truly on with the State of Origin period also only three weeks away from being in the rear-view mirror.

A log jam on the NRL ladder sees only four points seperate 4th spot and 12th spot, with seemingly only one teams guaranteed of playing finals this far out, and only a few more able to claim they are realistically not going to miss out.

Zero Tackle have run the rule over every team's current position and their run home to determine who is playing finals football, and who is looking ahead to 2025.

On the run home, you can follow our LIVE LADDER, updated with every score over the final ten weeks of the season.

1. Melbourne Storm

Current record and position: 1st, 13 wins, 3 losses, 28 points, + 113
Byes remaining: 1 (Round 19)
Remaining fixtures: Wests Tigers (away), Sydney Roosters (home), Parramatta Eels (away), St George Illawarra Dragons (home), South Sydney Rabbitohs (away), Penrith Panthers (away), The Dolphins (home), North Queensland Cowboys (away), Brisbane Broncos (away)

The Storm have quietly pushed themselves to the top of the table with 13 wins to date. When you consider the injury toll they have played through - and will continue to play through - it's quite the effort.

They are four points clear, and with games against the Tigers, Eels, Dragons and Rabbitohs, as well as a home game against the Dolphins, and last round clash against a team they have often turned into cannon fodder over the years in the Brisbane Broncos, they should do more than enough to take the minor premiership.

The big game, of course, will be against the Penrith Panthers.

Likely finish: 1st

2. Penrith Panthers

Current record and position: 2nd, 10 wins, 5 losses, 24 points, + 108
Byes remaining: 1 (Round 19)
Remaining fixtures: Brisbane Broncos (away), the Dolphins (home), St George Illawarra Dragons (away), Newcastle Knights (home), Parramatta Eels (away), Melbourne Storm (home), Canberra Raiders (away), South Sydney Rabbitohs (home), Gold Coast Titans (home)

If the Panthers weren't already four points behind, you'd likely back them to take out the minor premiership, but it's difficult to see the Storm slipping up that much.

Penrith's run home is a mixed one, but games in the final three weeks against the Raiders, Rabbitohs and Titans should see them go into the finals on the back of three wins.

Their tests on the way home come against the Broncos and Storm, with a potential difficulty against the Dolphins as well, while the Eels always seem to be up and about for the Western Sydney derby.

Likely finish: 2nd

3. Cronulla Sharks

Current record and position: 3rd, 10 wins, 5 losses, 24 points, + 77
Byes remaining: 1 (Round 20)
Remaining fixtures: Gold Coast Titans (home), Wests Tigers (home), bye, North Queensland Cowboys (away), South Sydney Rabbitohs (home), Gold Coast Titans (away), Newcastle Knights (home), St George Illawarra Dragons (away), New Zealand Warriors (home), Manly Sea Eagles (away)

The Sharks have really hit the skids in recent weeks. After leading the competition at one point, they have now lost four of their last five and, without a turnaround, are at real risk of tumbling out of the top eight.

The good news is they have the games to do it. The Titans and Tigers in back-to-back weeks before a bye, then a number of winnable games on the run in against the Rabbitohs, Titans (again), Knights and Dragons, as well as the Warriors at home and Sea Eagles away.

It's not the way to get prepared for a finals series, but it's the sort of run where if Cronulla don't make the top eight, particularly from the position they are in, then serious questions will need to be asked of Craig Fitzgibbon.

Likely finish: 5th

4. Sydney Roosters

Current record and position: 4th, 10 wins, 6 losses, 22 points, + 195
Byes remaining: 2 (Round 19, Round 23)
Remaining fixtures: St George Illawarra Dragons (home), bye Melbourne Storm (away), Manly Sea Eagles (home), The Dolphins (away), bye, Parramatta Eels (home), Gold Coast Titans (away), Canberra Raiders (home)

The Roosters are in the top four - not by a great margin, mind you - but have the advantage of two byes remaining and a run home, which features enough winnable games.

The Dragons, Eels, Titans and Raiders are teams you'd expect the tri-colours to beat, although, for the time being, they have major injury problems in their backline.

That said, they should have enough to secure a top four finish with those byes and the returning cavalary, before three straight wins on the final run to the finals.

Likely finish: 3rd

5. Canterbury Bulldogs

Current record and position: 5th, 8 wins, 7 losses, 20 points, + 64
Byes remaining: 1 (Round 19)
Remaining fixtures: New Zealand Warriors (home), bye, North Queensland Cowboys (away), Brisbane Broncos (away), Canberra Raiders (home), St George Illawarra Dragons (away), The Dolphins (home - Bundaberg), New Zealand Warriors (away), Manly Sea Eagles (home), North Queensland Cowboys (home)

The Bulldogs have been the real surprise packet this season, currently sitting in fifth spot on the table with only one by in play.

If they make the finals though they are going to seriously earn it. Despite their strong for and against, their run in is difficult. Trips away to play the Cowboys, Broncos and Warriors, will challenge Cameron Ciraldo's outfit.

We are going to find out whether they are the real deal or not.

Likely finish: 7th

6. The Dolphins

Current record and position: 6th, 8 wins, 7 losses, 20 points, + 40
Byes remaining: 1 (Round 18)
Remaining fixtures: Bye, South Sydney Rabbitohs (home), Penrith Panthers (away), Gold Coast Titans (home), Sydney Roosters (home), New Zealand Warriors (home), Canterbury Bulldogs (away - Bundaberg), Melbourne Storm (away), Brisbane Broncos (home), Newcastle Knights (away)

Before the injury to Jeremy Marshall-King, the Dolphins were looking like the possibly most likely side from outside the top four to sneak in at the end of the season.

They still could do so, though. A bye this weekend gives them a chance to set up for the run home, which features tricky games with the Panthers, Roosters and Storm, as well as the Queensland derby against the Broncos.

Three straight homes against the Titans, Roosters and Warriors gives them a chance to build momentum though and they could still wind up there.

Likely finish: 6th

7. North Queensland Cowboys

Current record and position: 7th, 9 wins, 7 losses, 20 points, + 2
Byes remaining: 2 (Round 19, Round 25)
Remaining fixtures: Manly Sea Eagles (home), bye, Canterbury Bulldogs (home), Cronulla Sharks (home), Wests Tigers (away), Brisbane Broncos (home), Canberra Raiders (home), bye, Melbourne Storm (home), Canterbury Bulldogs (away)

The Cowboys have an exceptionally soft run home. We all know they are a very difficult team to beat in Townsville, and they barely leave North Queensland between now and the end of the season, with six of their last eight to be played there.

The only times they leave Townsville are to play the Tigers and Bulldogs, and while they have a few difficult encounters against the likes of the Sharks, Broncos and Storm, if they are good enough, then they will make the top four from their current position, particularly given they are one of only a few sides with two byes still in play.

Likely finish: 4th

8. St George Illawarra Dragons

Current record and position: 8th, 8 wins, 7 losses, 20 points, - 30
Byes remaining: 1 (Round 20)
Remaining fixtures: Sydney Roosters (away), Brisbane Broncos (away), bye, Penrith Panthers (home), Melbourne Storm (away), Canterbury Bulldogs (home), Gold Coast Titans (home), Cronulla Sharks (home), Parramatta Eels (away), Canberra Raiders (home)

The Dragons face an exceptionally difficult run to the finish line. They play all of the current top four, as well as last year's grand finalists the Brisbane Broncos, who will be desperate for results to go their way in a push to the finals.

It's a very realistic situation that Shane Flanagan's side - who have been incredibly inconsistent throughout 2024 - miss the finals by a considerable margin.

Likely finish: 12th

9. Manly Sea Eagles

Current record and position: 9th, 7 wins, 1 draw, 7 losses, 19 points, + 28
Byes remaining: 1 (Round 22)
Remaining fixtures: North Queensland Cowboys (away), Newcastle Knights (home), Gold Coast Titans (home), Sydney Roosters (away), bye, Canberra Raiders (away), New Zealand Warriors (home), Wests Tigers (away), Canterbury Bulldogs (away), Cronulla Sharks (home)

It would be fair to say the Sea Eagles have had a mixed season to date. They are going to need a lot to go right over the run home to make the finals as well, although they do avoid the big guns from here to end.

Tom Trbojevic's return might help them as well, but it's difficult to see Anthony Seibold's side qualifying for the finals, although the point from a draw earlier in the season could help.

Likely finish: 9th

10. Brisbane Broncos

Current record and position: 10th, 7 wins, 8 losses, 18 points, + 21
Byes remaining: 1 (Round 24)
Remaining fixtures: Penrith Panthers (home), St George Illawarra Dragons (home), Newcastle Knights (away), Canterbury Bulldogs (home), Gold Coast Titans (away), North Queensland Cowboys (away), bye, Parramatta Eels (home), the Dolphins (away), Melbourne Storm (home)

You'd be lying if you said the Broncos had been anywhere near their best this year, or even the level they showed last year on their run to the grand final.

Granted, they have been hampered by injuries, but even Adam Reynolds' return - set for either Round 22 or Round 23 - has no guarantee that it'll be the magic turnaround point for the club.

Despite that, they have a comfortable run in, despite games against the Panthers, Cowboys, Dolphins and Storm. They should win enough in their current form to jump up and snag the final spot in the eight, although it could just as easily go badly wrong. A positive for and against will also do wonders compared to the teams around them.

Likely finish: 8th

11. Newcastle Knights

Current record and position: 11th, 7 wins, 8 losses, 18 points, - 47
Byes remaining: 1 (Round 21)
Remaining fixtures: Canberra Raiders (away), Manly Sea Eagles (away), Brisbane Broncos (home), bye, Penrith Panthers (away), Wests Tigers (home), Cronulla Sharks (away), South Sydney Rabbitohs (away), Gold Coast Titans (home), The Dolphins (home)

The Knights' form has been pretty terrible for much of the season, and yet, they somehow find themselves in the mix for the finals with Kalyn Ponga set to return this weekend.

They have some winnable games on the run in too, but there are just too many uphill battles, with the Broncos, Panthers, Sharks and Dolphins on the menu, as well as the Raiders and Sea Eagles away which are absolutely not guarantees.

Granted, nothing is a guarantee for the way Newcastle have played. They will win some games, lose some games, and ultimately miss the top eight.

Likely finish:

12. Canberra Raiders

Current record and position: 12th, 7 wins, 8 losses, 18 points, - 89
Byes remaining: 1 (Round 19)
Remaining fixtures: Newcastle Knights (home), bye, New Zealand Warriors (home), South Sydney Rabbitohs (home), Canterbury Bulldogs (away), Manly Sea Eagles (home), North Queensland Cowboys (away), Penrith Panthers (home), Sydney Roosters (away), St George Illawarra Dragons (away)

The Raiders, like the Knights, are in the mix for the finals, but haven't at all had the form to suggest they are a good chance of making them. They have an easier run in than the Knights, but have bottled winnable games in recent weeks.

Ricky Stuart has made some key changes to his team this weekend, and there is little doubt he will be demanding a change from his team, but they will fall short of the top eight.

Likely finish:

13. New Zealand Warriors

Current record and position: 13th, 7 wins, 1 draw, 8 losses, 17 points, - 31
Byes remaining: 2
Remaining fixtures: Canterbury Bulldogs (away), bye, Canberra Raiders (away), Wests Tigers (home), Parramatta Eels (home), The Dolphins (away), Manly Sea Eagles (away), Canterbury Bulldogs (home), Cronulla Sharks (away), bye

The Warriors do have one of the easier lists of fixtures to end the season, although back-to-back away games against the Dolphins and Sea Eagles, one against the Bulldogs and another against the Sharks will make for tough enough work.

Two byes up their sleeve helps, but Andrew Webster's side have struggled for form like a number of other teams at this end of the ladder.

They could well end up on the same points as Manly.

Likely finish: 10th

14. South Sydney Rabbitohs

Current record and position: 14th, 5 wins, 9 losses, 16 points, - 113
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining fixtures: Parramatta Eels (away), the Dolphins (away), Wests Tigers (home), Canberra Raiders (away), Cronulla Sharks (away), Melbourne Storm (home), Wests Tigers (away), Newcastle Knights (home), Penrith Panthers (away), Sydney Roosters (home)

The Rabbitohs, to make the finals, will likely need to win seven of their final ten games, and maybe even eight. That appears to be all but out of the question given their tough fixture list, but a turnaround in form has them primed for at the very least a shot at finals footy.

It could come down to those final two weeks in truth, where they may not have enough in the tank to get the job done, particularly with all three of their byes already used.

Likely finish: 11th

15. Gold Coast Titans

Current record and position: 15th, 4 wins, 10 losses, 14 points, - 71
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining fixtures: Cronulla Sharks (away), Parramatta Eels (home), Manly Sea Eagles (away), the Dolphins (away), Brisbane Broncos (home), Cronulla Sharks (home), St George Illawarra Dragons (away), Sydney Roosters (home), Newcastle Knights (away), Penrith Panthers (away)

The Titans might have two points on the Eels and Tigers behind them, but they are not out of the woods when it comes to the wooden spoon race.

They have used all their byes, and have some tough games on the run in, with two against the Sharks, the Roosters, Panthers, Dolphins and Broncos all on their fixture list.

That is going to mean that they need to play some very good rugby league to avoid the dreaded spoon.

Likely finish: 16th

16. Parramatta Eels

Current record and position: 16th, 4 wins, 11 losses, 12 points, - 129
Byes remaining: 1 (Round 20)
Remaining fixtures: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home), Gold Coast Titans (away), bye, Melbourne Storm (home), New Zealand Warriors (away), Penrith Panthers (home), Sydney Roosters (away), Brisbane Broncos (away), St George Illawarra Dragons (home), Wests Tigers (away)

The Eels have been one of the major disappointments this year, but will be looking to finish the season on a high.

They have an exceptionally tough run after their bye - up until the final two weeks anyway - though. Still, they could pick up three or four wins from here to the end of the season, which should be enough to keep them off the wooden spoon.

Likely finish: 15th

17. Wests Tigers

Current record and position: 17th, 4 wins, 11 losses, 12 points, - 139
Byes remaining: 1 (Round 26)
Remaining fixtures: Melbourne Storm (home), Cronulla Sharks (away), South Sydney Rabbitohs (away - Gosford), New Zealand Warriors (away), North Queensland Cowboys (home), Newcastle Knights (away), South Sydney Rabbitohs (home), Manly Sea Eagles (home), bye, Parramatta Eels (home)

The Tigers are currently on the bottom of the NRL ladder despite showing signs of a turnaround in recent weeks - that is until they had the doors blown off against the Roosters on the weekend.

The problem is, they have already shown similar signs way back in Round 3 and 4. A tough run in won't help them either with a trip to Auckland adding to games against the Sharks and Storm. There are enough winnable games, but it's hard to see them avoiding the spoon.

Likely finish: 17th