There are just four weeks remaining in the NRL season, and the race for the top eight is proving to be one of the closest in recent memory.
As we head into the final month of the season, 14 teams remain a mathematical chance of playing finals football, and you could argue 12 teams remain a realistic chance.
At the top of the table, the minor premiership appears to be down to a race between two, while plenty of teams could still sneak their way into the top four to alter the course of this year's finals series.
Down the bottom, the Canterbury Bulldogs have avoided the wooden spoon, and the Wests Tigers are firming as the favourites to take out the NRL's dreaded bogey prize for a second year in a row.
Here is every team's run home.
1. Penrith Panthers
Current position: 1st, 36 points (15 wins), + 277
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: vs Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 25: vs Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 26: vs Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 27: vs North Queensland Cowboys (home)
The Panthers have kept winning since our last update on the run home, beating the Bulldogs, Sharks and Storm over the last three weeks.
Their run doesn't get a whole lot tougher in the coming weeks, and while they might rest players in the last fortnight, they are still in the drivers seat for a home qualifying final in the first week of the finals.
The only thing we are changing from our prediction made three weeks ago is that Penrith simply won't lose a game on the run in - they look unbeatable.
Best case scenario: 1st
Worst case scenario: 5th
Likely finish: 1st
2. Brisbane Broncos
Current position:/strong> 2nd, 36 points (16 wins), + 169
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 24: vs Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 25: Bye
Round 26: vs Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 27: vs Melbourne Storm (home)
The Broncos have handled the toughest part of their run home excellently, picking up wins over the Rabbitohs, Roosters and Cowboys over the last three weeks.
Whether they can win the minor premiership or not is realistically going to come down to whether Penrith slip up, and whether they can beat the Storm in the final week of the season.
We are going to say they fall short in that endeavour, but Brisbane may avoid playing the Storm in Week 1 of the finals in doing so.
Best case scenario: 1st
Worst case scenario: 5th
Likely finish: 2nd
3. New Zealand Warriors
Current position: 3rd, 32 points (13 wins), + 121
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: vs Wests Tigers (away - Hamilton)
Round 25: vs Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 26: vs St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 27: vs The Dolphins (away)
The Warriors are charging towards the end of the season, and the Auckland-based club's run doesn't get a whole lot tougher. The Tigers, Sea Eagles, Dragons and Dolphins doesn't scream difficult.
They also play three of those games - in a row it should be added - in New Zealand.
Taking they gain six points in those games, then even slipping up against the Dolphins would be unlikely to cost them third spot on the ladder given they have a 40-point advantage over the fourth-placed Storm for and against wise.
Best case scenario: 1st
Worst case scenario: 9th
Likely finish: 3rd
4. Melbourne Storm
Current position: 4th, 30 points (12 wins), + 81
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: vs Canberra Raiders (home)
Round 25: vs St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 26: vs Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 27: vs Brisbane Broncos (away)
The Storm have dropped the ball in the last three weeks, losing to the Knights and the Panthers, while managing to get a win over the Eels.
They have a bogey side in the Raiders coming up this week too, but then play the Dragons and Titas before travelling to a happy hunting ground for a clash against the Broncos.
We've got them winning all four on the run in to rescue their form slide and save a place in the qualifying finals.
Best case scenario: 1st
Worst case scenario: 9th
Likely finish: 4th
5. Canberra Raiders
Current position: 5th, 30 points (12 wins), - 74
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: vs Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 25: vs Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 26: vs Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 27: vs Cronulla Sharks (away)
The Raiders negative for and against speaks volumes about the way this team have performed this year, often scrapping over the line in close games.
That will serve them solidly during a difficult run to the finish line, but it's tough to see them doing anything more than beating the Bulldogs at home. That last day of the season against the Sharks, pending results, could be as big as a regular season game gets.
Despite their single win between now and the finish line, 32 poins and 13 wins will be enough to scrape them into the finals after results in previous weeks, although that could yet be in danger if the Eels catch fire.
Best case scenario: 1st
Worst case scenario: 11th
Likely finish: 8th
6. Cronulla Sharks
Current position: 6th, 28 points (11 wins), + 80
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: vs Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 25: vs North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 26: vs Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 27: vs Canberra Raiders (home)
Whether the Sharks host an elimination final, travel for an elimination final or are kicked out of the finals will likely hinge on their final two weeks of the season.
They should beat the Titans this weekend and lose to the Knights the following weekend. We then have them losing to the in-form Knights before winning against the Raiders at home.
Lose to the Raiders and it could be curtains, but beat the Knights and they may well finish fifth.
Best case scenario: 3rd
Worst case scenario: 12th
Likely finish: 7th
7. Newcastle Knights
Current position: 7th, 27 points (10 wins, 1 draw), + 74
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: vs Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 25: vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 26: vs Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 27: vs St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
The Knights have caught fire in recent weeks, and five straight wins have catapaulted the club into contention for finals football.
Their spot is anything but secure, but if they can beat the Bulldogs and one of the Rabbitohs or Sharks at home, as well as the Dragons in the final round, they will be there without having to worry about for and against on the back of their draw point.
Lose both of those home games though and they will almost certainly miss out.
Best case scenario: 3rd
Worst case scenario: 13th
Likely finish: 6th
8. South Sydney Rabbitohs
Current position: 8th, 26 points (11 wins), + 80
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 24: vs St George Illawarra Dragons (home - Cairns)
Round 25: vs Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 26: Bye
Round 27: vs Sydney Roosters (home)
The Rabbitohs are guaranteed at least another two points thanks to their bye, and could still finish on as many as 34 points which could technically take them as high as third spot on the table if every result went their way.
We do have them claiming all eight points on the run in too - it's a fairly straightforward run, although you can never guarantee what might happen in the derby against the Roosters.
If they claim all eight points, we have them winding up fifth.
Best case scenario: 3rd
Worst case scenario: 15th
Likely finish: 5th
9. Parramatta Eels
Current position: 9th, 26 points (11 wins), + 65
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games 1
Round 24: vs Brisbane Broncos (away - The Gabba)
Round 25: vs Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 26: vs Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 27: Bye
Like the Rabbitohs, the Eels having a bye means they could still go as high as third spot on the table, but they would need to be perfect - and that they have not been in recent weeks.
They escaped with a chance to save their season on Sunday against the Dragons, but we only have them picking up four points to the end of the season against the Roosters and the bye, so that will leave them short of the top eight.
Best case scenario: 3rd
Worst case scenario: 15th
Likely finish: 10th
10. North Queensland Cowboys
Current position: 10th, 26 points (11 wins), + 32
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 24: Bye
Round 25: vs Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 26: vs The Dolphins (away)
Round 27: vs Penrith Panthers (away)
The Cowboys are in the same boat as the Eels and probably need to win three from three after their bye to make the finals. We have them picking up wins over the Sharks and Dolphins, but it's likely the game against the Panthers, or other results, which will determine whether they make the eight.
Ultimately, we have them coming up short, but if things go perfectly and other results spin their way, they, like the Eels above them, could wind up third in what has been a chaotic season.
Best case scenario: 3rd
Worst case scenario: 15th
Likely finish: 9th
11. Manly Sea Eagles
Current position: 11th, 25 points (9 wins, 1 draw), - 35
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: vs Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 25: vs New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 26: vs Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
Round 27: vs Wests Tigers (home)
The Sea Eagles, in their current position, are starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel in terms of realism to qualify for the finals, although other results in recent weeks have kept them alive.
That bye point, if they can go on a run, will keep them alive too, but more likely, their hopes will be extinguished over the next fortnight with games against the Panthers and Warriors.
Best case scenario: 4th
Worst case scenario: 15th
Likely finish: 11th
12. Sydney Roosters
Current position: 12th, 24 points (9 wins), - 100
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games 0
Round 24: vs The Dolphins (home)
Round 25: vs Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 26: vs Wests Tigers (home)
Round 27: vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
It has been a difficult campaign to say the least for the tri-colours, and their loss in Round 22 to the Broncos all but ended their finals hopes.
They still have a breath left in them though, and finishing on 32 points might be enough if they can beat the Eels and Rabbitohs, although even then it would likely come down to for and against with a logjam of teams in the queue.
They will probably pick up a pair of wins at least over the Dolphins and Tigers to avoid falling back towards the bottom four.
Best case scenario: 5th
Worst case scenario: 15th
Likely finish: 12th
13. Gold Coast Titans
Current position: 13th, 22 points (8 wins), - 53
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: vs Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 25: vs Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 26: vs Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 27: vs Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
The Titans can still make the top eight, but their run home suggests otherwise, with the Sharks, Panthers and Storm on the menu over the next three weeks before they finish their season against the Bulldogs.
To make the top eight, they'd need to finish on 30 points with four straight wins. They would then need the Knights, Rabbitohs, Eels and Cowboys to lose all of their remaining games (apart from when the Knights play the Rabbitohs) and the Sea Eagles and Roosters to win two and three games or less respectively.
Ultimately, it's not going to happen for the Titans in 2023.
Best case scenario: 7th
Worst case scenario: 16th
Likely finish: 13th
14. The Dolphins
Current position: 14th, 22 points (8 wins), - 94
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: vs Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 25: vs Wests Tigers (away)
Round 26: vs North Queensland Cowboys (home)
Round 27: vs New Zealand Warriors (home)
Best case scenario: 7th
Worst case scenario: 16th
Likely finish: 14th
The Dolphins are the final team who can make the finals, but like the Titans, will need the same results to go their way while winning all four of their remaining games.
That seems unlikely at best, and while they will probably beat the Tigers, the Dolphins may not avoid the bottom four.
15. Canterbury Bulldogs
Current position: 15th, 20 points (7 wins), - 261
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: vs Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 25: vs Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 26: vs Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 27: vs Gold Coast Titans (away)
The Bulldogs are the first team out of mathematical consideration for the finals. Because the Eels and Cowboys both have a bye remaining, and the Rabbitohs play the Knights, at least three teams will finish on 28 or more points at the bottom of the top eight.
The Bulldogs can reach 28 points, but their for and against rules them out of contention.
What's more likely is that the Bulldogs will steal two points from the Sea Eagles and lock in a 15th-placed finish.
Best case scenario: 10th
Worst case scenario: 16th
Likely finish: 15th
16. St George Illawarra Dragons
Current position: 16th, 16 points (5 wins), - 145
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (away - Cairns)
Round 25: vs Melbourne Storm (home)
Round 26: vs New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 27: vs Newcastle Knights (home)
We are now into the bottom echelon of the table. The Dragons are unlikely to win another game on the run home, but they won't need to in an effort to avoid the wooden spoon with a four-point jump now to the Tigers.
Best case scenario: 13th
Worst case scenario: 17th
Likely finish: 16th
17. Wests Tigers
Current position: 17th, 12 points (3 wins) - 217
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: vs New Zealand Warriors (home - Hamilton)
Round 25: vs The Dolphins (home)
Round 26: vs Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 27: vs Manly Sea Eagles (away)
The Tigers are all but locked in for the wooden spoon. Given the for and against issue of them against the Dragons ahead, they'd need to win three games out of their remaining four even if the Dragons did lose all four.
In short, that's not going to happen, and the joint-venture will pick up their second wooden spoon in a row.
Best case scenario: 15th
Worst case scenario: 17th
Likely finish: 17th
Updated final ladder prediction
1. Penrith Panthers - 44 points
2. Brisbane Broncos - 42
3. New Zealand Warriors - 40
4. Melbourne Storm - 38
5. South Sydney Rabbitohs - 34
6. Newcastle Knights - 33
7. Cronulla Sharks - 32
8. Canberra Raiders - 32
9. North Queensland Cowboys - 32
10. Parramatta Eels - 30
11. Manly Sea Eagles - 29
12. Sydney Roosters - 28
13. Gold Coast Titans - 24
14. The Dolphins - 24
15. Canterbury Bulldogs - 20
16. St George Illawarra Dragons - 16
17. Wests Tigers - 12
Qualifying final 1: Penrith Panthers vs Melbourne Storm
Qualifying final 2: Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors
Elimination final 1: South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Canberra Raiders
Elimination final 2: Newcastle Knights vs Cronulla Sharks
