There is no doubt that Round 15 NRL action will be headlined by the Friday night clash between the Roosters and the Storm at Adelaide Oval. Rightfully so.
The Storm head the ladder, with just two losses for the season and a for and against record of +188. After a wonky month, the Roosters dealt with the Bulldogs at the SCG in Round 14 and with troops returning, will be looking to return to winning ways after losses to the Panthers, Knights and Broncos leading up to their bye.
If this instalment of the rivalry between two of the powerhouses of the competition goes within cooee of the Roosters’ 21-20 victory at AAMI Park in Round 6, NRL fans could be in for something special.
As exciting as that sounds, there are two other matches with potentially more significance in terms of the number of clubs that will remain in semi-final contention after Round 15.
Just hours before the Chooks and Storm do battle in the city of churches, WIN Stadium will host the vital clash between the Dragons and the Cowboys, a match likely seal the fate of the loser.
The Dragon’s season requires context. Two wins against the hapless Bulldogs makes their 5-8 record and 12 competition points read far less appealingly than it may at first glance.
Early season wins against the Sea Eagles, Knights and Broncos were achieved by a margin of two points or less and having already enjoyed their bye, they stand to slip further down the ladder should the Cowboys take the points on the road. Along with Penrith, Paul Green’s men will enjoy an upcoming bye in Round 16 and both may have gapped the Dragons by that stage.
If unable to wrestle the two competition points from the Cowboys on Friday night, it will be done and dusted for Paul McGregor’s men and the uncomfortable questions around the coach’s tenure will continue to fester and demand attention at some stage in the near future.
North Queensland have scrapped their way to a 6-8 record and sit level with the Dragons on 12 points. Recent close losses to the Tigers and Sea Eagles have stifled the momentum built after consecutive and at the time, season saving wins against the Eels, Raiders and Titans.
After their upcoming bye in Round 16, the Roosters, Rabbitohs and Sharks await, making a victory over the Dragons paramount. St George-Illawarra also have a tough road to hoe, with the Storm, Raiders and the rejuvenated Panthers on the agenda in the coming weeks.
Both club’s pending draws make their Friday night meeting the clichéd ‘must win’ encounter. In a classic tipping dilemma of home ground advantage versus slightly better form the outcome is as unpredictable as any match over the course of the weekend.
In an equally important clash, the Warriors and the Panthers meet on Sunday afternoon at Mount Smart Stadium; facing a season ending fate should they walk away defeated.
Both sit in the logjam of clubs on 12 points, alongside the Dragons and the Cowboys, with a fifth club, Brisbane, facing a challenge of their own against the Knights in the Hunter on Saturday night.
The Warriors have somehow managed to hang on to the coat tails of the eight despite being, well, themselves really. A consistent New Zealand based NRL team will no doubt raise the trophy one day, yet this version is as inconsistent and unpredictable as most that have come before it.
A scrappy win against the Titans in Round 14 was their first since the 17th of May and frankly, it is difficult to see them making a serious impact in the finals should they indeed manage to scramble into the eight.
However, a win at home against an improving Panthers side will keep them in the hunt for such a prize.
The Penrith Panthers have potentially the most upside of all the teams on 12 competition points. Off the back on consecutive victories against the Bunnies and the Roosters, hope has returned to the foot of the mountains after an abysmal start to the season.
James Maloney’s form offers encouragement, yet the news of Nathan Cleary’s ankle issue and his pending time on the sideline moderates some of that hope. With a Round 16 bye and manageable matches against the Titans and Dragons looming, a win against the Warriors could see the Panthers mighty close to the top eight in the short term.
Alternatively, a New Zealand triumph sets them up well for the Knights and the Broncos in the next fortnight.
However things play out, I will be sticking a fork in the losers of these two Round 15 matches. Following that loss, the victories required in eight or nine of their last ten matches will be a bridge too far for both.
Now it is just a matter of waiting to see which two sides join the Bulldogs and Titans on the scrapheap for 2019.