The argument against expansion is very real

Are we closing in on NRL expansion?

Published by
Dan Nichols

Has it been six months already? That seems to be how long the cool down period seems to be between the expansion or relocation discussion starting up again.

This time it is on the back of comments made by NRL CEO Todd Greenberg that again indicate that expansion is on the agenda.

I've long been a big supporter of expansion. There simply has to be a team in Perth, with a second Brisbane or New Zealand team just edging out a central coast or central NSW club.

If they were to announce expansion tomorrow with two sides coming into the competition in 2021 or 2022 I'd be over the moon.

More teams equal more fans, especially in AFL towns like Perth. The time slot alone that Perth would allow broadcasters makes the game more valuable overall.

That said, there is one HUGE argument that seems to be red hot right now as to why the NRL can't expand.

There simply aren't enough quality players going around to form two more NRL worthy squads.

I'm very much against relocation and I believe the NRL are also. For all the talk of no bailing out clubs, the NRL can't afford to lose or relocate a side.

The huge majority of any team relocated's fans will walk away. That's fans lost to the game.

Not to mention the fact that any future NRL TV deal will be worth more with an extra fixture per week, especially with that plum WA time-slot every second week.

The NRL wouldn't want to risk massive fan backlash and losing a big increase on TV deal by shifting a side.

Whichever side (or sides) moved would drag it through the courts and it would be a black eye for a code that is already far from a media darling.

So the clubs would have to be start up sides, much like the Titans were back in 2007.

Any expansion would be two teams rather than one given the reluctance to bring back those horrid bye rounds, and as mentioned provide an extra fixture each week.

That's 60 more NRL contracts available to be filled from outside the current NRL crop of talent.

I hate to single out an NRL club but right now the Bulldogs are about as far from a NRL squad as we've seen since the ASADA affected Sharks in 2014.

With the greatest of respects to the Dogs players and fans, the gulf in talent between their squad and the more favoured sides is massive.

They'll come out and win five straight now that I've said that, but it's hard to believe their side is worth as much as the Bunnies, Roosters or even the Panthers.

Where do the 60 players come from?

Of course not all 60 will play NRL, they're just the squads, but we need at least 26 run on NRL players and a further eight off the bench, so we'll work off 34 players being needed.

Any new club would look to sign two or three big name stars much like the Titans did upon their reintroduction into the NRL.

Curtis Rona, a product of the WA junior system would be a target. The current Wallaby would be a huge name and a local player with plenty of League experience.

So we need to find 33 players.

There is some freakish talent coming through the junior grades, but as seen with the AFL's introduction of the Giants, it could take years for those young players to realise their potential and become competitive.

There are plenty of bench players for current NRL sides who would move for full time roles. Those players would have to be replaced but it's easier to replace bench players than starters.

Again both the NSW and QLD Cup have plenty of talent who could make the step up.

That said though, there have been more than a few cases of NSW Cup stars moving up only to be sent back to NSW Cup.

Brad Abbey is too good for NSW Cup. Way too good. Absolute star. He was recently overlooked for a rookie for a vacant wing spot.

He'd surely be a target but with all due respect, unless the new sides can land six or seven big name players, they face being easy beats for at least the first season or two.

The gulf between the top sides and the bottom sides right now is massive. This would widen it and also bring other clubs down.

Ultimately it is inevitable that there will be teams added. There certainly should be, but only when the NRL talent pool is deep enough.

There's a quick fix of bringing across Super League stars and signing hot properties from the junior grades and hoping, but with a limited salary cap it's going to be hard to drag mass numbers of the ESL's elite across in one hit.

NRL user @RugbyLeagueGod put together two sides made up of NSW/QLD Cup players and added some ESL talent. Take a look below.

Fair to say I can't see either of those sides winning too many games. Throw in two mega stars for each side and you're still a long way off a side capable of playing finals footy.

I hate to argue against something I would like to see so much, but right now the player pool is just not deep enough to justify two more sides being added.

Published by
Dan Nichols