A changed New South Wales Blues side will make the trek to the Melbourne Cricket Ground in an attempt to keep the 2024 State of Origin series alive against the Queensland Maroons.
Game 1 of the series might have seen the Queensland side run away with a 38-10 victory, but in the grand scheme of things, it was exceptionally difficult to get a read on where the two sides actually sit.
That, of course, is down to the fact the Blues played 72 minutes of the game with 12 men after Joseph Suaalii was sent off for a devastating high shot which left Reece Walsh also out of the remainder of the game.
Billy Slater's strategy of picking a back in Selwyn Cobbo on the bench came to fruition as a smart play, and the Maroons, despite struggling to dominate the first hour of the game, put on a number of late tries to kick clear with victory.
Fatigue was always going to get the Blues though, and their effort to hang tough with a Queensland side gunning for a third straight Origin series was commended.
That said, they will need to be better as the sides make the trip to the Victorian capital for a clash at a likely sold out Melbourne Cricket Ground. It's a ground the Blues have had success at previously, but now it's do-or-die with the chance of forcing a decider at Suncorp Stadium on the line.
The changes must work for the Blues, and there is a strong chance they will with returns from injury and a new-look spine. The Blues clearly have to be better at fifth tackle options with it being one of their main issues in the series opener, and it's an issue coach Michael Maguire has moved to address in his team selection.
Queensland were also sloppy in patches though, and, without major changes, will rely on the same group of 17 to do the job again, with the likes of Harry Grant needing improved performances for the Maroons to repeat the result they managed in Sydney - a place they have often struggled to win in, even during their enormous run of success over the years.
Queensland would obviously love nothing more than a dead rubber back at home, but there is little doubt they will be up against it during Game 2 against a fired up Blues side looking to make ammends for Game 1, and capitalise on a similar effort level with an even playing field.
The teams
New South Wales Blues
1. Dylan Edwards 2. Brian To'o 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Latrell Mitchell 5. Zac Lomax 6. Jarome Luai 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Jake Trbojevic 9. Reece Robson 10. Payne Haas 11. Liam Martin 12. Angus Crichton 13. Cameron Murray
Interchange: 14. Connor Watson 15. Isaah Yeo 16. Haumole Olakau'atu 17. Spencer Leniu
Reserves: 18. Mitchell Barnett 19. Cameron McInnes
The Blues have made five changes for Game 2 of the series.
The first - and compulsory one of those - was to replace Joseph Suaalii. He is out suspended for the hit on Walsh, with superstar and possible X-Factor Latrell Mitchell coming back into the side for his first match in a sky blue jersey since 2021.
Elsewhere, Dylan Edwards is back into the side for James Tedesco after being replaced during the camp for Game 1 with injury, while Nicho Hynes has also been axed from the spine. Mitchell Moses comes into the team for him with a mandate of improving the kicking game.
Cameron Murray is also back from injury to replace Cameron McInnes, while Hudson Young is the unlucky forward to miss out on the bench which has been rebalanced. In his place, utility Connor Watson comes into the side with the ability to play hooker or across the backline positions.
Queensland Maroons
1. Reece Walsh 2. Xavier Coates 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Reuben Cotter 9. Ben Hunt 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Jaydn Su'a 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Patrick Carrigan
Interchange: 14. Harry Grant 15. Moeaki Fotuaika 16. Felise Kaufusi 17. Kurt Capewell
Reserves: 18. Dane Gagai 20. Trent Loiero
Queensland, on the other hand, have only made two changes for Game 2, one forced and the other semi-forced.
The big call from Billy Slater was to drop Selwyn Cobbo. The coach explaind after his squad selection that Cobbo's axing was a mix of form and fitness, but it's understood he would have been fit to play by Wednesday evening if selected.
In his place is Kurt Capewell who himself has only just come back from injury and has struggled for form at the Warriors, but he has never let Queensland down before.
Felise Kaufusi is the other man into the side to replace J'maine Hopgood, with the middle forward to miss out with a back injury after making his Origin debut in Game 1.
The history
The last two decades - give or take - may have seen the Maroons take a large lead in the overall series and head-to-head battle, but the one thing they haven't been able to do is stop the Blues at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
The largest venue in Australia has hosted five Origin matches, with the Blues taking out four of them including the two most recent, which came in the form of a 22-12 win in 2018, and a 26-18 win in 2015.
Queensland's only win was in 1995, while the Blues also won in 1994 and 1997.
Keys to the game
Do Queensland's middle third have enough depth?
The loss of J'maine Hopgood, only to be replaced directly by a second-rower, could leave the Maroons in a difficult spot for Game 2.
The Maroons only have one middle forward on the bench in Moeaki Fotuaika, while Reuben Cotter, Lindsay Collins and Patrick Carrigan are the starting middle rotation.
Cotter and Carrigan will likely play close to, if not the whole 80 minutes, while Collins and Fotuaika could split the game between them.
The issue is if that doesn't go to plan, and there is an injury or HIA, Queensland will need to turn to Kaufusi or Capewell to play in the middle.
That is not an ideal situation in anyone's book, and the Maroons already had issues through the middle in Game 1. Weakening it - as much as it's not their own fault at the selectiont able given the enormous number of injuries - is a cause for concern.
Can Mitchell Moses replace Nicho Hynes?
Nicho Hynes' axing for Game 2 came as an expected consequence of a horrendous Game 1 performance for many pundits.
Ultimately, Hynes was never the first-choice halfback for Maguire - that much has been made clear since the team was announced for Game 2.
It's hard to suggest Moses was the first-choice either, but with Nathan Cleary out, he is the next best option and had to be brought into the halves for the clash in Melbourne alongside Jarome Luai
Moses' form has been average for the Eels since returning for the Eels from injury, but he has experience and runs on the board.
His performance will be critical if the Blues are going to find a way to pick up a victory.
Will Queensland get their attack right?
We have already discussed some of the issues around Queensland's middle third, both in Game 1 and what could be the case moving into Game 2, but that will have direct impacts on their spine and attacking quality.
The big surprise really from Game 1 was that the Maroons were unable to run away with the contest far sooner than they did, despite having a man advantage on the park for 72 minutes.
Ben Hunt was ultimately the game-breaker for them, while Daly Cherry-Evans was able to keep things controlled despite the Maroons' attacking being clunky at best for large portions of the contest.
There is little doubt the Maroons will need to improve their attack during Game 2 if they are to succeed. Cameron Munster's absence is a big blow and can't be understated, but you'd also expect more out of Tom Dearden and Daly Cherry-Evans as they prepare for their second game in a partnership.
Harry Grant is also a player who needs to be better than he was in the series-opener for the good of the Maroons' attack, but again, lots of it could well come down to the middle third.
Is Connor Watson the right option?
The big change for the Blues heading into Game 2 is Connor Watson coming into the side as the bench utility.
Many had called for his selection ahead of the series-opener, but Watson was withdrawn from any chance of selection the day before the team was announced through injury.
A bench utility was clearly lacking for New South Wales in the series-opener, and would have made even more sense after Joseph Suaalii was sent off.
Watson has been in excellent form for the Roosters, and being able to play plenty of positions, he serves as the real X-Factor for the Blues, able to balance the bench and cover for emergencies while also playing a strong 20 minutes at dummy half if emergencies don't require him into other positions.
That will only go to improve the performance of Reece Robson, whose defence in the middle and attack are both so important to anything the Blues do throughout the contest.
Prediction
The Blues are in a must-win position, and while the scoreboard suggests they were hammered in Game 1, nothing could be further from the truth.
The Maroons had issues in the opener, their attack at times looking clunky despite having an extra man on the field.
They may be better than that this time, but the Blues had attitude, energy and effort. That will be a starting point to winning this game, while Mitchell Moses should be an upgrade at halfback in controlling the attack.
If Dylan Edwards and the back five dominate, and Latrell Mitchell has a big game, the Blues should get up, but this will be tight either way.
Blues by 4.
Key game information: 2023 State of Origin Game 2, New South Wales Blues vs Queensland Maroons
Kick-off: Wednesday, June 26, 8:05pm (AEST)
Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
TV: Live, Channel 9
Online: Live, 9Now
Overall record: Played 130, Queensland 70, New South Wales 58, Drawn 2
Record at MCG: Played 5, New South Wales 4, Queensland 1
Series head-to-head record: Played 42, Queensland 26, New South Wales 16
Referee: Ashley Klein
Zero Tackle will have the second game of the 2024 Origin series covered from all angles, including a live blog in our match centre which will also have live scores and stats.
