Seven weeks to go: Every NRL run home and likely final ladder

The State of Origin period is fading into the rear-view mirror, and the proper final race to the finals is about to begin.

With seven rounds to play, the only thing that is relatively certain is that the St George Illawarra Dragons and Wests Tigers can't make the finals.

You can add the Canterbury Bulldogs to that list too. Their for and against is woeful, and even if they win every game to the end of the season (which they are unlikely to do), they will only wind up with 12 wins.

The most the Dragons can get is 11, while the Tigers can only get to 10.

The remaining 14 teams are all within four points of the top eight though and has a chance of cracking the finals.

That said, for some of those teams, time is running out to make a serious run at September action.

Here is how the run home shapes up for each team:

Seven weeks to go: Every NRL team's run home and likely final ladder

Penrith Panthers

Current position: 1st place, 30 points, (12 wins), +203
Byes remaining: 0
Run home
Round 21: vs Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 22: vs Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 23: vs Melbourne Storm (home)
Round 24: vs Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 25: vs Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 26: vs Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 27: vs North Queensland Cowboys (home)

It's hard to see the Panthers dropping many games on the run home. Ivan Cleary's side have some tough games, but they are all at home. In fact, the men from the foot of the mountains only travel away twice, with one to the Northern Beaches and another to the Gold Coast - both games they would expect to win.

The tough games at their home fortress come against the Melbourne Storm, Parramatta Eels and North Queensland Cowboys.

Question marks will hover over the final game against the Cowboys given the way Cleary rested his team last year for a road trip to play the same side, but the minor premiership may not be wrapped up quite as early this time around.

We've actually got them falling short the week prior against the Parramatta Eels, but even then, another minor premiership awaits.

Likely finish: 1st

Brisbane Broncos

Current position: 2nd place, 30 points, (13 wins), +115
Byes remaining: 1
Run home
Round 21: vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (away - Sunshine Coast)
Round 22: vs Sydney Roosters (home - The Gabba)
Round 23: vs North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 24: vs Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 25: Bye
Round 26: vs Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 27: vs Melbourne Storm (home)

The Broncos have performed strongly all season, but will need to keep things rolling across a difficult finish to the season with tough games all the way to the finish line.

They do have a bye whcih will help, but they need to make a statement over the next fortnight against the Rabbitohs and Roosters before travelling to Townsville.

We've ultimately got them winning four of their last six with losses to the Cowboys and Storm to record a second-placed finish. An extra win would leave them tied with the Panthers but behind on for and against. Six from six could get the men from Red Hill a minor premiership.

Likely finish: 2nd

Melbourne Storm

Current position: 3rd place, 30 points, (11 wins), +79
Byes remaining: 0
Run home
Round 21: vs Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 22: vs Parramatta Eels (home - Marvel Stadium)
Round 23: vs Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 24: vs Canberra Raiders (home)
Round 25: vs St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 26: vs Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 27: vs Brisbane Broncos (away)

The Storm have seemingly been below their best throughout the 2023 season, and yet sit third spot on the table. The NRL's picture of consistency for the best part of two decades will feature in yet another finals series.

Their run home is a real mixed bag, but with the exception of the trip away to Penrith, they all look like games they should be winning, or at the very least competitive.

We have the Storm winning six of seven through to the end of the season and winding up on 40 points alongside the Broncos - for and against will stop them from hosting though, and they will likely play two games on the trot at Suncorp in Round 27, and Week 1 of the finals.

Likely finish: 3rd

Canberra Raiders

Current position: 4th place, 28 points, (11 wins), -55
Byes remaining: 0
Run home
Round 21: vs New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 22: vs Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 23: vs Wests Tigers (home)
Round 24: vs Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 25: vs Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 26: vs Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 27: vs Cronulla Sharks (away)

The Raiders have been the first of the real surprise packets this season, winning plenty of games they weren't expected to.

It's a tough run home though, kicked off by a trip to Auckland, and featuring games against the Storm, Broncos and Sharks.

They will certainly do enough to qualify for the finals though with wins over the Knights, Tigers and Bulldogs. If they can snag two wins against the other sides, then they will challenge for a spot in the top four. We've got them finishing seventh though.

Likely finish: 7th

New Zealand Warriors

Current position: 5th place, 26 points, (11 wins), +110
Byes remaining: 1
Run home
Round 21: vs Canberra Raiders (home)
Round 22: Bye
Round 23: vs Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 24: vs Wests Tigers (away - Hamilton)
Round 25: vs Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 26: vs St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 27: vs The Dolphins (away)

The Warriors have one of the easier runs home, including a bye on the trip to the final week of the regular season.

While consistency has been an issue in previous seasons for the Auckland-based side, they have made that a non-event this year.

It's tough to see them dropping a game on the way in. Canberra will be their toughest test, but assuming they account for that, we think there could be a slip up against the Dolphins in the final week of the year as they push to finish on a high note in their inaugural season.

Win all seven and they could host in Week 1 of the finals, but we have them fourth after a spectacular season.

Likely finish: 4th

Cronulla Sharks

Current position: 6th place, 26 points, (10 wins), +102
Byes remaining: 0
Run home
Round 21: vs Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 22: vs Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 23: vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (away - Perth)
Round 24: vs Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 25: vs North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 26: vs Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 27: vs Canberra Raiders (home)

The Sharks have used all their byes and were handed a rude reality check by the Warriors in Round 20, but still should be a strong chance of making the finals.

While they have tough away trips to play the Panthers and Cowboys, the remainder of their games look winnable. The toughest of the rest is the Rabbitohs in Perth, but given South Sydney's monster road trip, we will take the Sharks in that one.

Five wins on the way home should put the Sharks in fifth, but it's hard seeing them finishing any higher than that.

Likely finish: 5th

Parramatta Eels

Current position: 7th place, 24 points, (10 wins), +97
Byes remaining:
Run home
Round 21: vs North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 22: vs Melbourne Storm (away - Marvel Stadium)
Round 23: vs St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 24: vs Brisbane Broncos (away - The Gabba)
Round 25: vs Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 26: vs Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 27: Bye

The Eels have a very difficult run to the finish line. Their clash with the North Queensland Cowboys in Townsville this weekend could prove pivotal.

While they have the bye in the final round, our predictor says they need to win at least four of their last six to qualify for the top eight, and while we have the beating the Dragons, Roosters and Panthers in the battle of the west, their three away games are all going to be tough.

If they were to lose to the Panthers, they need to win two of those games on the road. Finals look a long, long way away for last year's grand finalists.

Likely finish: 9th

South Sydney Rabbitohs

Current position: 8th place, 24 points, (10 wins), +92
Byes remaining: 1
Run home
Round 21: vs Brisbane Broncos (home - Sunshine Coast)
Round 22: vs Wests Tigers (away - Tamworth)
Round 23: vs Cronulla Sharks (home - Perth)
Round 24: vs St George Illawarra Dragons (home - Cairns)
Round 25: vs Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 26: Bye
Round 27: vs Sydney Roosters (home)

The run home for the Rabbitohs doesn't look as tough as some until you consider the magnitude of the road trip they are about to undertake.

Sunshine Coast, Tamworth, Perth, Cairns and Newcastle in back-to-back weeks. That's tough by any stretch of the imagination.

While they should be good enough to beat the Tigers, Dragons and Knights, there are question marks about the rest of their games. We have given them the win over the Roosters though and that will be enough to sneak into the finals.

Likely finish: 8th.

North Queensland Cowboys

Current position: 9th place, 24 points, (10 wins), +49
Byes remaining: 1
Run home
Round 21: vs Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 22: vs Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 23: vs Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 24: Bye
Round 25: vs Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 26: vs The Dolphins (away)
Round 27: vs Penrith Panthers (away)

The biggest advantage for the red-hot Cowboys heading into the final seven weeks of the season is that they play three of their four really tough games at home.

That, combined with wins over the Titans and Dolphins, should hand Todd Payten's side ten competition points over the final seven weeks of the season.

Their form has been excellent and they are not a team to be taken lightly in September, which they will qualify for.

Likely finish: 6th

Newcastle Knights

Current position: 10th place, 21 points, (7 wins), +42
Byes remaining: 0
Run home
Round 21: vs Melbourne Storm (home)
Round 22: vs Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 23: vs The Dolphins (away)
Round 24: vs Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 25: vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 26: vs Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 27: vs St George Illawarra Dragons (away)

Once you get past the Cowboys on the table, things drop away, with a three-point gap to the Knights, who don't have any byes left.

They would need to win 6 games at a minimum to make the eight, and then have things go their way.

Unfortunately, it's nigh-on impossible to see that happening for the men from the Hunter with games against the Storm, Rabbitohs and Sharks, as well as a trip to play the Raiders. We've got themm beating the Dolphins, Bulldogs and Dragons, but that won't be enough.

Likely finish: 11th

Manly Sea Eagles

Current position: 11th place, 21 points, (7 wins), -35
Byes remaining: 0
Run home
Round 21: vs Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 22: vs St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 23: vs Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 24: vs Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 25: vs New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 26: vs Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
Round 27: vs Wests Tigers (home)

Like the Knights, the Sea Eagles need to win at least six of their final seven to qualify for the finals. If Tom Trbojevic was playing, you might say they have a chance.

Even then though, a lot would need to go right when you consider they play the Sharks, Roosters and Panthers, as well as the Warriors across the ditch.

We have them winning their other three games, but they will fall short.

Likely finish: 12th

Gold Coast Titans

Current position: 12th place, 20 points, (7 wins), -34
Byes remaining: 0
Run home
Round 21: vs Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 22: vs North Queensland Cowboys (home)
Round 23: vs New Zealand Warriors (home)
Round 24: vs Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 25: vs Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 26: vs Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 27: vs Canterbury Bulldogs (home)

The Titans have had a real mixed bag this year. They showed signs of life at various points, but have let themselves down regularly. Needing to win six games in the final seven weeks, that challenge has gotten a whole lot harder with the news Tino Fa'asuamaleaui is set to be suspended for a shoulder charge.

Ultimately, Jim Lenihan's side would need to pull a rabbit out of the hat to play finals footy. It can be done, but the run they'd need to go on against tough oppoosition is unlikely.

We've only got the Titans winning one of their last seven and falling into the bottom four.

Likely finish: 14th

The Dolphins

Current position: 13th place, 20 points, (7 wins), -91
Byes remaining: 1
Run home
Round 21: Bye
Round 22: vs Canterbury Bulldogs (away - Bundaberg)
Round 23: vs Newcastle Knights (home - Perth)
Round 24: vs Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 25: vs Wests Tigers (away)
Round 26: vs North Queensland Cowboys (home)
Round 27: vs New Zealand Warriors (home)

The Dolphins were competitive for a long time this year, but the bubble seems to have well and truly burst.

They aren't out of finals contention, but need mathematics to justify a run at September and all six wins in the meantime.

They do one of the more simple runs home with the Bulldogs, Knights and Tigers on the radar, but beating all of the Roosters, Cowboys and Warriors seems unlikely.

Likely finish: 13th

Sydney Roosters

Current position: 14th place, 20 points, (7 wins), -106
Byes remaining: 0
Run home
Round 21: vs Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 22: vs Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 23: vs Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 24: vs The Dolphins (home)
Round 25: vs Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 26: vs Wests Tigers (home)
Round 27: vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)

The last of the realistic chances to make the finals. The Roosters' run home is among the simplest in the competition, and seven wins from seven isn't out of the question - although the way they have been playing, they are as good as out of the mix.

Having the Broncos, Eels and Rabbitohs on their run home should be enough to put a fork in Trent Robinson's side for the season, but they will improve up the ladder with a handful of wins.

Plenty of questions to be asked for the club who were at one time favourites for the premiership this year.

Likely finish: 10th

Canterbury Bulldogs

Current position: 15th place, 16 points, (6 wins), -236
Byes remaining: 1
Run home
Round 21: vs Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 22: vs The Dolphins (home - Bundaberg)
Round 23: Bye
Round 24: vs Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 25: vs Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 26: vs Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 27: vs Gold Coast Titans (away)

The Bulldogs are out of finals contention, but may still need a win to avoid the wooden spoon.

They should be in the mix against the Dolphins, Knights and Titans during their final six games, and while odds are they will snag a win somewhere, their form has been horrendous, so we haven't given them one.

That said, the two teams below them aren't winning much either, so they will avoid the spoon with their bye points alone.

Likely finish: 15th

St George Illawarra Dragons

Current position: 16th place, 14 points, (4 wins), -137
Byes remaining: 0
Run home
Round 21: vs Wests Tigers (home)
Round 22: vs Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 23: vs Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 24: vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (away - Cairns)
Round 25: vs Melbourne Storm (home)
Round 26: vs New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 27: vs Newcastle Knights (home)

Spoon Bowl this Thursday could well decide the NRL's most dreaded prize. The Dragons are at home, so we have given them that game based on that and nothing else.

Their run home after that could see the Red V lucky if their for and against doesn't fall below the Tigers, so they will be sweating on the other joint venture not picking up more than a single win.

Likely finish: 16th

Wests Tigers

Current position: place, points, ( wins),
Byes remaining: 0
Run home
Round 21: vs St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 22: vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 23: vs Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 24: vs New Zealand Warriors (home - Hamilton)
Round 25: vs The Dolphins (home)
Round 26: vs Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 27: vs Manly Sea Eagles (away)

The Tigers have a difficult run home, but a couple of winnable games. They will be desperate to beat the Dragons on Thursday, but could also consider themselves a chance against the Dolphins and Sea Eagles.

We have given the joint venture the game over the Dolphins, but that's still not enough to get the wooden spoon out of their grasp.

A win over the Dragons this week would change all of that though.

Likely finish: 17th