If the NRL season ended after 20 regular season rounds, Brisbane would've gone into the finals sitting in the top four.
Instead, Brisbane did their best impersonation of the Australian cricket side's batting order, and completely collapsed.
It's hard to come back quickly from a wooden spoon, collecting the only one in the club's 35 year history in 2020, so a return to dominance shouldn't be expected so quickly.
On the other hand, they're the Brisbane Broncos. They've missed the finals more times in the last three seasons than they had in their club history before 2020. A publicly listed business on the stock exchange, this team demands better.
Blessed with a stellar young forward pack and key experience in Adam Reynolds, their recruitment drive has focused on quality over quantity, and a return to mid-September football is well within their grasp.
Recruitment impact
Ins: Logan Bayliss-Brow (2023), Jock Madden (Wests Tigers, 2024), Ethan Quai-Ward (2023), Tyson Smoothy (Melbourne Storm, 2023), Martin Taupau (Manly Sea Eagles, 2023), Reece Walsh (New Zealand Warriors, 2025)
Outs: Tyson Gamble (Newcastle Knights), Zac Hosking (Penrith Panthers), Jamayne Isaako (The Dolphins), Ryan James (retired), Rhys Kennedy (Hull Kingston Rovers), Brenko Lee (The Dolphins), Te Maire Martin (New Zealand Warriors), David Mead (retired), Tesi Niu (The Dolphins), Jake Turpin (Sydney Roosters)
Recruitment Impact
Let's be honest, the Broncos have cut a lot of the deadweight from their side. Under performers, fringe-first graders and ageing former stars, their biggest loss is Tesi Niu, but if you have a choice between him and rising star Reece Walsh, you take the latter every time.
There's some handy hooking depth in Tyson Smoothy, who impressed during the trials, as does Jock Madden in the halves, but the big fish is Martin Taupau out of those three. He adds real starch and experience to their bench.
Walsh is the only star they've signed, but he partners Adam Reynolds' poise so well, and is exactly what the club needed. More creativity, more spark, more points.
Key talking points
Adam Reynolds' fitness
The former Rabbitohs halfback comes under fire heavily for missing games, however Reynolds missed just four games in the entire 2022 season, and Brisbane won three of them.
However, the Broncos simply can't be without their captain and playmaker this season, he's the only player in their spine with more than 50 NRL games experience, and one of just two premiership-winners in the team.
So, can Kevvieย actually coach?
If you listened to certain podcasts, you might have doubts, but how much of Brisbane's 2022 collapse comes down to Walters?
They were without Patrick Carrigan from Round 21 to 24 while Selwyn Cobbo asked to sit out a game due to burnout despite what's at stake, you can't pin that stretch solely on Kevin. They sat in the top four with half a dozen games left, he can coach.
3. Whoย plays hooker?
There's a four-horse race for the No. 9 jersey, and with only minor gaps between them, it comes down to who is going to compliment the spine best.
Billy Walters is the favourite after a strong season, while Cory Paix has just re-signed, Tyson Smoothy has just joined the club, and highly-touted rookie Blake Mozer ready to breakout.
Star player: Adam Reynolds
Adam Reynolds delivers exactly what Brisbane definitely lacked prior to 2022 - big game experience. Captaining the club from his very first game, Reynolds is an out and out leader, and the poise to guide the Broncos around the park.
A premiership-winner with South Sydney, Reynolds' ability to slow things down while young stars like Ezra Mam and Reece Walsh run around like a bull out of a gate is his greatest asset, and they need it on the field.
Player under pressure: Payne Haas
Payne has had a complicated 12 months, missing a game over the Albert Kelly incident, requesting an immediate release as well as his off-field family issues, his mind hasn't been fully focused on the field.
However after being donned as the first 'new era prop', expectations for Haas continue to grow, but can he meet them? He's not in any danger of being dropped, but another season or two without standing up could land Haas in the 'he had potential' category fast.
Breakout star: Blake Mozer
The young hooker won't be rushed into the NRL side to make his debut, but once he's there, good luck getting him out. This kid is a bona fide star in the making, and alongside Walsh and Mam, will likely be in the Broncos' spine for the next decade.
A local product, this crafty rake is still a tad undersized, however Kevvie Walters still has Billy Walters and Cory Paix to fill the void while Mozer continues to grow. Expect this young gun to debut mid-year, similar to Mam in 2022, and make an immediate impact.
2023 Draw impact
Once again, the Broncos will play Magic Round at Suncorp Stadium - as an away game.
It hands the club an extra match at the venue, however the club will be required to relocate for three games midyear to the Gabba as the women's FIFA World Cup steals the stadium.
Despite the Magic Round clash, they travel the fifth-most of any side, playing the Eels in Darwin and the Warriors in Napier, though play just three games in New South Wales.
Fixtures to watch
Round 4 vs The Dolphins, Suncorp Stadium, 8:05pm AEDT, Friday March 24
The first ever 'Battle for Brisbane', this game is shaping as a certain sellout at Suncorp Stadium as Wayne Bennett once again faces Brisbane, this time at helm of the Dolphins.
The NRL's newest club has pinched a number of Broncos from Red Hill for their maiden side, and with the Dolphins already facing the Cowboys and Titans in the trial, this is their final test. Absolute belter in the making.
Round 23 vs North Queensland Cowboys, Queensland Country Bank Stadium, 3:00pm AEST, Saturday August 5
Now, for the real Queensland derby. Despite these club's varying fortunes in the last five years, these clashes have remained tight despite a gap between the two side's ladder positions.
A rare day game between the two, the Cowboys will be teetering on the edge of the top four while Brisbane are right on the cusp of a return to finals, meaning this match could have massive ramifications a month out from the finals.
Round 27 vs Melbourne Storm, Suncorp Stadium, 7:50pm AEST, Thursday August 31
Another game with big finals implications, these two teams have had some massive battles in recent years, and with Melbourne set to finally show a softer underbelly, this could well be the game that propels Brisbane into the eight.
Cameron Munster and Harry Grant know how to turn it on at Suncorp, though they'll be tasked with Payne Haas and Patrick Carrigan, who will ask more questions of the Storm than any other player in the Broncos side.
Prediction
Jack Blyth
Following a collapse to end all collapses, the Brisbane Broncos will be licking their wounds still, and eyes solely on mid-September.
They've added a key piece in Reece Walsh, and while some will argue he's too old, Martin Taupau's addition really strengthens up their middle third, and takes pressure off Payne Haas and Patrick Carrigan.
Hooker is a concern still, with four hookers fighting it out for a spot, while Ezra Mam at five-eighth will have to dodge the dreaded second-year syndrome.
Provided Adam Reynolds can play at least 75% of the regular season, and the squad stay away from the podcast mic's, they should return to the finals.
8th.
Dan Nichols
Brisbane should have played finals footy in 2022. Only a historic form drop saw them miss out. I think they avoid such a repeat in 2023 and will right the wrong.
Reece Walsh's return is a great story and is probably the difference between the 2022 and 2023 squad. Ezra Mam has been anointed the first choice number six, which I love.
Adam Reynolds will obviously have a huge say on how this season ends up. If he can stay fit, then the Broncs will have enough to return to finals footy.
9th.
Scott Pryde
The rather dramatic fadeout of the Broncos last year was drastic and unprecedented. From Round 19, they looked a shell of the team who were at one point sitting in the top four.
Fitness questions aside, not much has changed from the side that did sit in the top four, and for mine, it's difficult to see them missing the finals.
Think they will just scrape in.
8th.
Zero Tackle calculator: 8th
Zero Tackle's calculated prediction is the average tip of all three tipsters, with the lowest average the minor premiers, and the highest average the wooden spooners.
