By now, Canberra should know better than to undervalue experience in the halves.
But unless the Raiders act swiftly, Jamal Fogarty, the steady hand who's been steering their attack since 2022, could walk out the door with barely a backwards glance from club officials.
And worse still, he could walk straight into the spine of a rival.
The Raiders have until round six to activate a clause in Fogarty's contract or lose exclusive rights to him beyond 2025. If they stall much longer, he'll hit the open market, and in a competition crying out for mature, tactical No.7s, there'll be no shortage of suitors.
Manly have already made their interest known.
With Daly Cherry-Evans approaching 36 and no guarantee he'll play beyond next year, the Sea Eagles are actively recruiting for stability, leadership and big-game poise.
Fogarty ticks every box.
And while teenage prodigy Joey Walsh is being groomed at Brookvale, even Anthony Seibold concedes the young half is โa couple of years awayโ from being NRL-ready.
They need a bridge and Fogarty could be it.
The bigger question, however, is why Canberra haven't already locked him in.
Let's be clear: Fogarty isn't a flash-in-the-pan talent.
He's a late bloomer, debuting for the Titans in 2017 before briefly dropping back to the Queensland Cup, only to fight his way back into first grade.
But across 79 NRL appearances, he's kicked 113 goals, slotted 4 field goals and quietly built a reputation as one of the most organised halves in the game.
He's not the biggest name in lights, but for a team that's made defence and grind its identity, he's exactly the kind of general you want wearing the No.7.
Born in Beaudesert, raised in the Gold Coast rugby league heartland and of Indigenous Australian and Torres Strait Islander descent, Fogarty came through the Titans' system before earning his stripes at Burleigh.
His journey has always been about graft, not hype and it's that blue-collar mentality that endeared him to Raiders fans when he arrived in the capital two seasons ago.
Since then, he's been Canberra's on-field metronome.
While the Raiders have swung between semi-final push and structural reset, Fogarty's been a constant.
When Joe Tapine was sidelined, it was Fogarty who took the captain's armband. When their young spine wobbled, it was Fogarty who brought the shape.
His kicking game is intelligent. His communication is loud. And he's been healthy, too: 22 games in 2023, 20 the year prior.
And still, we're here.
According to reports, Ricky Stuart had been unwilling to engage directly with Fogarty's agent, Tas Bartlett. But the coach has since clarified that talks are ongoing and that a decision will come โat the right timeโ.
โI'll sit down with them,โ Stuart said this week, speaking with AAP.
โWe're constantly having discussions with the guys that are off contract and we'll get to an end point at some stage.โ
What's telling is Stuart's honesty with Fogarty himself. The coach has made no attempt to hold his playmaker to ransom. Instead, he's encouraged him to consider his family's future first.
โIf you have got a big deal out there mate that's going to be the best thing for Kahlia and the girls, you take that, but I want you at the club,โ Stuart told him.
It's admirable loyalty. But loyalty alone doesn't win retention battles. And sentiment won't keep Manly from swooping if they smell hesitation.
It's also a risk. Canberra's next generation of halves, Ethan Strange and Ethan Sanders, are promising, but raw. Neither is yet ready to guide a team over 25 rounds.
And with Jack Wighton gone and the squad still finding its identity in attack, now is hardly the time to hand the keys to rookies.
The market knows this. That's why Fogarty, who turns 31 later this year, is a more valuable commodity now than ever before.
He might not sell jerseys like a Nathan Cleary or generate headlines like a Jarome Luai, but ask any coach how rare it is to find a half who can execute a plan, manage a tempo and keep a backline on script under fatigue.
Fogarty does that in his sleep.
So what are Canberra waiting for?
If the clause isn't activated by round six, it won't be long before other offers start stacking up. And with Fogarty's form solid and his injury record sound, they'll come fast.
If Manly miss out, expect the Bulldogs to monitor the situation. The Cowboys could use depth at 7. Even clubs like the Dragons or Tigers should their own experiments falter, may come knocking.
There's also the question of optics. The Raiders have built a reputation as a club that looks after its veterans.
They extended Jack Wighton until he walked, they stuck with Josh Papalii and Jordan Rapana through form dips and injury.
Letting Fogarty slip through especially without a replacement ready risks undermining that culture.
Then there's the symbolic loss: a captain, a mentor, a guy who fought for every jersey he's worn. If that's not worth one more season on a modest extension, what is?
Fogarty isn't asking to be the franchise face. He's just doing what he's always done - show up, run the side, leave the drama to someone else. If the Raiders can't see the value in that, someone else will.
The deadline is round six.
