The Canberra Raiders performed a back-end miracle in 2022 to scrape into the finals, and while they were assisted by the capitulation of the Brisbane Broncos, they will now look to 2023 as a year where they can control their own destiny.
The confidence of that run into the finals will have given Ricky Stuart's side wings heading into the new season.
But that doesn't mean this is just a simple march to the top eight for the Raiders.
Like in 2022, they will be relying on a handful of key players remaining on the park throughout the course of the campaign - it's something they didn't have last year, and why they had to play so much catch up football.
That recruitment call to bring in Jamal Fogarty ahead of 2022, as well as the general improvement of their forwards, is something they will need to have continue if they want to maintain pace with the top eight this year though, as the battle for finals spots gets set to go up another gear.
Recruitment report
Ins: Danny Levi (Huddersfield Giants, 2024), Ata Mariota (2024), Pasami Saulo (Newcastle Knights, 2024)
Outs: Adam Elliott (Newcastle Knights), Josh Hodgson (Parramatta Eels), Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (New Zealand Warriors), Harry Rushton (Huddersfield Giants), Ryan Sutton (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs), Sam Williams (released)
Recruitment impact
The Raiders have been fairly quiet in the recruitment and retention space this year, but you can't mount the argument that they have improved the overall quality of the roster with the moves they have ultimately made.
Danny Levi joins the club and will effectively take the departing Josh Hodgson's spot on the roster. Given Hodgson didn't play for most of last year though, and the club in the meantime promoted the efficient Zac Woolford, the move to add Levi to the squad doesn't make a great deal of sense.
While the battle for the number nine jumper will be a talking point, their only other signing from outside the club is Pasami Saulo out of the Knights.
The promotion of Ata Mariota to the top 30 could ultimately prove to be their best call, with the gun forward set to debut at some point this season.
Adam Elliott and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad are both disappointing losses for the club, with Elliott in particular impressing last year at lock, hooker and on the edge after being handed a lifeline by coach Ricky Stuart. Hudson Young left mid-year to return to England, while another forward also departs in Ryan Sutton, who is bound for the Bulldogs.
Key talking points
Can Jamal Fogarty and Jack Wighton go to the next level?
One of the bright spots for the Raiders as they made their march to the finals was the way in which recruit Jamal Fogarty combined with Jack Wighton.
Wighton struggled immensely during the first half of the season, with the green machine sitting well outside the top eight before Fogarty's return from the injury he picked up just weeks out from the start of the season.
Fogarty was always going to have a calming influence on Wighton though - it was the same role he had played around a young spine on the Gold Coast during 2021 as the club made the finals.
The Titans, without Fogarty, finished in the bottom four last year.
Sometimes, a halfback doesn't need to be particularly flashy if he joined by a player like Wighton, and in this case, Fogarty complements his Origin representative halves partner perfectly.
But the duo need to go to the next level this year to keep the green machine in finals contention.
As a direct aside to this point, there are also large questions about their depth in the halves, with those utilised while Fogarty was out last year unable to inspire the Raiders to anything in particular.
What to do with Jarrod Croker?
The Raiders have a very real question to ask in their outside backs. With Jordan Rapana, Nick Cotric, Sebastian Kris and Matt Timoko all seemingly guaranteed spots, it leaves very little room for Jarrod Croker to slot in as the club captain returns from injury and chases a 300th appearance in the NRL.
Croker has had a horror run with injury in recent times, but more concerningly for the green machine and coach Stuart, he hasn't looked up to NRL level in the games he has played.
The problem, of course, is that with young guns in the centres, and Croker having spent so long out of the game, the argument for the veteran to be picked simply doesn't stack up.
The names mentioned are also followed in the queue by the likes of Harley Smith-Shields, who missed 2022 with injury, and Semi Valemei.
Both players will fight with Croker for minutes, although there is expected to be a spot open in the early rounds with Xavier Savage injured to start the campaign.
Who plays dummy half?
Tom Starling, Zac Woolford and Danny Levi are in a three-way race to play in the number nine jumper this year for the Raiders, with one of the trio to also come off the bench.
Based on the positivity of it working last year, you'd have to assume Starling will be off the bench, and even if he isn't, he will instead start. The explosive rake is simply too good to be left out of the 17 each week.
That, in essence, means Samoan representative Levi will go up against Woolford for the spot.
Levi has impressed in the pre-season, and was strong at the World Cup, but then, Woolford was so rock solid as the Raiders rebounded to the finals last year.
A genuine conundrum for Ricky Stuart that I'm not sure there is a correct answer to at the time of publication.
Star player: Joseph Tapine
There are so many options to take this mantle at the Raiders, with Jack Wighton, Joseph Tapine and Hudson Young all amongst the best in the competition in their chosen position.
That said, it's hard to go past Tapine.
The forward pack leader, who has so clearly taken over the role from Queensland representative Josh Papali'i in recent times, was a weapon for the Raiders late last year.
He played 60 minutes regularly and cruised to the top five in Zero Tackle's NRL MVP with more man of the match performances than any other Raider.
He was a menace in the middle third, and it's form that needs to continue in 2023.
Player under pressure: Jamal Fogarty
It's difficult to identify a player under pressure for the Raiders, but Fogarty is probably it.
For all the raps he got earlier in this preview, and the fact he helped the Raiders past the Melbourne Storm in a major boilover during last year's elimination final, there is no more important player to Stuart's team.
If he performs, then so do the Raiders. If he doesn't, then it could be curtains. He is the player who sets everything in attack, and the Raiders desperately need their attack to fire on all cylinders on a consistent basis to make the finals.
Breakout star: Ata Mariota
Mariota is one of the game's best young props and will inevitably make his (starting 17) debut at some point this season after playing as a concussion replacement in Round 21 last year.
He had an enormous year in the NSW Cup last year, bashing opposition packs and banging on the door of a debut.
The 21-year-old averaged 121 metres per game, but also made 25 offloads throughout the course of the campaign for the reserve grade green machine, and could be in line for a Round 1 appearance.
2023 Draw impact
The Raiders get two of their long-range trips out of the way straight off the bat, taking on the North Queensland Cowboys in Townsville, and the Dolphins in Redcliffe to start the year.
Their tough start to the year doesn't get any easier with the Sharks heading to the nation's capital in Round 3, before games against the Knights, Panthers and Broncos will prove exactly where they sit.
Their travel schedule may be tough to start, but between Round 7 and Round 20, they don't go further than Sydney, while games against the Warriors, Knights, Tigers and Bulldogs in the final seven weeks of the season should give them every chance of making the top eight.
Fixtures to watch
Round 1 vs North Queensland Cowboys at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Saturday, March 4, 5:30pm AEDT
The season-opener for the Raiders will be a true test of their ability straight away, with Townsville once again starting to become one of the toughest road trips in the NRL.
The Cowboys held a fortress in Townsville during their golden era, and are starting to do the same again, with the Raiders traditionally struggling on the road.
Nonetheless, they will need to be competitive in this one to get their season underway.
Round 5 vs Penrith Panthers at GIO Stadium, Friday, March 21, 6pm AEDT
The Raiders second home game of the year comes in Round 5 as they host the back-to-back defending premiers Penrith.
The Panthers and Raiders always seem to put on good matches, with the rivalry dating back decades between the two sides.
Two all-star forward packs squaring off, led by the battle between Josh Papalii and Joseph Tapine up against James Fisher-Harris and Moses Leota, creates a mouth-watering contest here.
Round 24 vs Melbourne Storm at AAMI Park, Sunday, August 13, 2pm AEDT
The Raiders went to Melbourne in last year's qualifying finals and miraculously emerged with the win after a thrilling 80 minutes.
Funnily enough, the Raiders love playing the Storm, and they love playing in Melbourne. They haven't always got the chocolates, but they are always in the fight, and will need to be so again here if they have visions of qualifying for September.
Prediction
Scott Pryde
The Raiders are in the mix for a spot in the top eight once again. For mine, the battle for eighth spot is a three-way race between the Broncos, Raiders and Bulldogs.
I tend to think the Raiders will just miss out, but it'll be a slim margin, and they will make some top teams swear throughout the course of the season.
10th.
Jack Blyth
One of the hardest sides to read in the competition, the Raiders can knock off the best teams in the comp, and lose to the worst of them.
They snuck into the finals on the back of Brisbane's collapse and a soft draw, and with another relatively easy season ahead in terms of their opponents, remaining in finals footy is definitely possible.
They lack quality service at hooker, and a steady hand in the halves. Both Jack Wighton and Jamal Fogarty are running halves and play a high tempo style, it's a question of whether they can combine consistently.
So close, yet so far.
10th.
Dan Nichols
This Canberra side has everything it needs to play Finals Football. One of the best packs in the game, a world class five-eighth and attacking weapons across the backline.
Truthfully they probably lack the class to compete with the very elite sides but they'll beat plenty of contenders in 2023 in one-off games.
Ultimately I can't see them pushing past facing an elimination final in Week 1 but I'd be absolutely shocked if they aren't contending for finals at a minimum.
8th.
Zero Tackle calculator: 9th.
Zero Tackle's calculated prediction is the average tip of all three tipsters, with the lowest average the minor premiers, and the highest average the wooden spooners.
