The Penrith Panthers will kick off their quest for a fourth straight premiership with a home qualifying final that wasn't secure until the final weekend of the season when they clash with the injury-ravaged Sydney Roosters at the foot of the mountains on Friday evening.
The match to kick off the finals will no doubt see the Panthers come in as favourites.
This is a side who have won nine straight finals matches, three straight grand finals, and despite falling short of the same minor premiership exploits they managed last year, there is still little doubt around exactly how strong this side are.
The return of Nathan Cleary will only aid in that process for Penrith.
If it's not for their own reasons though, the Roosters would come into this match as outsiders against just about anyone in the top eight.
Their season, which was moving along swimmingly on the back of an attacking force which refused to slow down at any point, was destroyed in Round 26. Star halfback Sam Walker, hooker Brandon Smith, and crucial forward Victor Radley all suffered season-ending injuries. In the case of Walker and Smith, they will both miss a sizeable chunk of 2025.
That, simply put, is - or at least should - knock their premiership chances for six, with the pressure now being transferred over to young replacement halfback Sandon Smith, and experienced duo Luke Keary at five-eighth and James Tedesco at fullback, with the duo needing to pick up a lot of the slack.
That - and we will touch on this later - brings with it some other problems for the Roosters, particularly in attack, but the cards they have been dealt are going to need to be played over the coming weeks.
It's common knowledge that doing things the hard way - losing this week and not having a week off - makes life exceptionally difficult for the teams who do make it through to the preliminary final, so even with a second chance, this is as good as sudden death.
Whether the Roosters are anywhere near ready for that with only a single game played since their slew of key injuries is anyone's guess, but it's a fair bet Penrith are ready given what they have managed to do over the last three years.
Team news
Penrith Panthers
1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Paul Alamoti 5. Brian To'o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo
Interchange: 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Liam Henry 17. Luke Garner 18. Matt Eisenhuth
Reserves:19. Brad Schneider 20. Casey McLean
The big one here is the return of Nathan Cleary. He slots straight back into the number seven, with Jarome Luai moving back to the six and Brad Shcneider dropping out, but back to the reserves.
Trent Toelau was originally named as the bench utility, but drops off the bench. As it stands, Penrith have four forwards named on the bench, but don't be shocked if there is a late change which will see Schneider win his spot back.
Sydney Roosters
1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii 4. Joseph Manu 5. Dominic Young 6. Luke Keary 7. Sandon Smith 8. Spencer Leniu 9. Connor Watson 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Angus Crichton 12. Sitili Tupouniua 13. Nat Butcher
Interchange: 14. Zach Dockar-Clay 15. Naufahu Whyte 16. Siua Wong 17. Terrell May
Reserves: 18. Michael Jennings 19. Blake Steep
As mentioned, most of the Roosters' big team changes already happened last weekend. There is no Sam Walker, Victor Radley or Brandon Smith for the remainder of the campaign, however long that may be for the tri-colours.
That said, Trent Robinson rested a host of players last weekend, and all of Dominic Young, Daniel Tupou, Lindsay Collins and Nat Butcher (HIA) are back this weekend, with Junior Pauga and Mark Nawaqanitawase, as well as De La Salle Va'a, dropping out.
History
Overall record: Played 100, Roosters 56, Panthers 43, drawn 1
Last ten matches: Panthers 9, Roosters 1
Record at venue: Played 50, Roosters 26, Panthers 24
Record in finals: Played 4, Panthers 3, Roosters 1
In more recent history, the team only had a single meeting this year, coming all the way back in Round 4.
In what was looking like a one-way traffic game early in the season, the Panthers had two tries in the first 14 minutes through Sunia Turuva and Dylan Edwards.
The Roosters hit back on the stroke of halftime, but fell behind further after the break as Turuva completed a hat-trick. The 22-6 scoreline became 22-16 with late tries for Brandon Smith and Daniel Tupou, but it was all too little, too late.
2023, Round 4: Sydney Roosters 16 defeated by Penrith Panthers 22 at Allianz Stadium.
Keys to the game
Can the Roosters breakdown Penrith's defence despite injuries?
One of the more scary stats is that you must be in the top four defensively speaking to be a chance of winning the competition.
No team with a defensive record outside the top four has won the competition for two decades.
Penrith finished the regular season again at the top of the pile, and while they come up against the competition's top attack here, it has never stressed them previously.
It doesn't seem to matter who they play. The men from the foot of the mountains are relentless at that end of the park, and three more games of it will have them in good stead for a fourth straight premiership.
Whether the Roosters can break that down is anyone's guess, but they need to be patient, apply pressure and make the most of any and all opportunities presented if they are going to.
Is James Tedesco going to take over?
And on that note... James Tedesco.
You could end this point there, so important is he to the Roosters' cause. If they are going to win... No, wait, scratch that, if they are even going to be competitive, he will be probably close to, if not man of the match.
But this could go one of two ways.
When Tedesco is at his best, he doesn't take over completely. One of the more pleasing things in Tedesco's game over the final six weeks of last season, and much of this season, has been his ability to sit back and interject at the right moments, rather than all of them.
The form of Walker and Smith has had a major hand in that.
It may not work so much with those two out, and the fear for Roosters' fans is that Tedesco will add 10 to 15 touches on his average into his game, become predictable, and actually make the Roosters' attack worse.
He needs to be at his best, but that means picking the right moments, and uplifting the likes of Luke Keary, Sandon Smith and Connor Watson in their own performances.
Is Nathan Cleary ready to go?
Sticking with an attacking theme, and there will be plenty of questions around Nathan Cleary.
You only need to look back as far as last year's grand final to know and understand what he means to this Penrith side. They were down, out, buried. Cleary put this side on his back and carried them to the premiership.
What we do know is that Cleary will be fresh. He has spent more time sidelined than he has on the park this year, and missed all of the State of Origin series.
But that shoulder injury he is battling is troublesome. It is one that re-injures easily without surgery, and if it does, it could be Penrith's campaign up in smoke.
More than that though, if he isn't confident in the issue, it could be a hinderance to Penrith's performance on Friday evening.
That's not to say we have any information to suggest Cleary isn't ready, and Penrith likely would have gone the conservative approach if there was any doubt, but it'll be intriguing to see how he returns after a couple of weeks off.
Will Penrith's back five just keep rolling?
Penrith have developed a style of rugby league that just works. There is no debate either around how they do things.
They use their back five as battering rams to get forwards back onside as quickly as possible and advance as far down the park as possible.
It really is relentless, and they rarely miss their mark.
Finals do bring out a different monster though, and it's what we saw in the first half against Brisbane in last year's grand final.
Penrith have shown signs of cracking - a side maybe down on their energy in recent weeks. That isn't exactly a major surprise given they are lining up with a shot at their fifth straight grand final, but they need to find it in a hurry, and it all starts from the back.
Watch for Brian To'o, Sunia Turuva and Dylan Edwards to all be up around the 200-metre mark if they get up.
Prediction
I don't think this will be a blowout by any stretch. I'd tip it'll be close for the best part of an hour before the Panthers go through the gears and put the Roosters away.
It'll be a case of the Roosters simply having too many out to overcome, and Trent Robinson's side will be backing up for a semi-final against either the Bulldogs or Sea Eagles next weekend with an extra 48 hours up their sleeve recovery-wise.
Panthers by 14.
Key game information: Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters, NRL qualifying final
Kick-off: Friday, September 13, 7:50pm (AEST)
Venue: BlueBet Stadium, Penrith
TV: Live, Fox League 502 and Channel 9
Online: Live, Kayo Sports, Foxtel App, 9Now
Betting: Panthers $1.40, Roosters $3
Referee: Ashley Klein
Touch judges: Liam Kennedy and Chris Sutton
Bunker official: Grant Atkins
