The New South Wales Blues put it all on the line in Perth this evening following a Queensland Maroons masterclass on the road during the series opener.
Game 2 wasn’t supposed to be the do or die occasion for the Blues given the opener was played in Sydney, but that is the exact situation they face.
While the prospect of a decider at the cauldron in Brisbane will be on the back of every New South Wales player’s mind, that won’t even come into consideration unless they can find a way to get over the men from north of the Tweed on Sunday evening.
And to get back on the front foot ahead of that side wearing Maroon, they are going to need to make enormous changes to the way they played from Game 1, where they were simply beaten at every turn.
But things have taken a dramatic turn for the Maroons with two key injuries forcing changes in their squad, and it could upset the almost perfect balance rookie coach Billy Slater had in his side a few weeks ago at Homebush.
While Xavier Coates was injured during the series-opener and is out for the remainder of the series, he is somewhat easily replaceable with North Queensland Cowboys Murray Taulagi joining the team for the contest.
On the other hand, Reuben Cotter’s injury was a freak occurrence during the warm-up for a Cowboys’ contest in the weeks that followed Origin 1. A late withdrawal couldn’t stop the Cowboys, but after playing 80 minutes of hard football in the middle third for Slater in Game 1, his absence will dramatically shake up the way the Maroons go about their business.
Cotter is what Origin is all about. Hard-working with silky skills to boot, his 80 minutes saw him tackle himself to a standstill.
That’s not to say Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, who has moved to lock, and Lindsay Collins, who will start in the front row, can’t fill the void, but the number of minutes they play, and the intensity and energy which Cotter brought, simply won’t be matched. The Cowboys’ star has taken all of one game to make himself virtually irreplaceable in the Maroons’ squad.
Jai Arrow’s addition to the bench will bring experience and resolve to the side, but it’s difficult to see the Maroons being quite as good as they were in Game 1.
The ace up their sleeve though is the coaching staff - Billy Slater, Cameron Smith and Johnathan Thurston. Three legends of Origin who understand what being a Queenslander is about. Three Queensland legends who would strike fear into the hearts of their opposition regardless of the team on paper listed to go up against them.
New South Wales, on the other hand, have made a stack of changes, some of them not making the greatest deal of sense. While you’d prefer to imagine they haven’t panicked, it’s hard to draw any other conclusion from some of the changes which coach Brad Fittler has made, just 12 months removed from taking the opening two games of the 2021 series by a record margin.
The biggest problem New South Wales have faced is undeniably the injuries to Tom Trbojevic and Latrell Mitchell, and yet, it’s impossible to keep talking about them given the series could be gone by the time either of them gets to don a blue jersey in this year’s campaign.
Regardless, the replacements for Game 1 won't be there. Jack Wighton would have been if not for his shockingly-timed positive COVID test, but the dropping of Kotoni Staggs is a head-scratcher.
The Brisbane Broncos' star was solid in Game 1 before going off with a shoulder injury, but has been replaced for Game 2 by Stephen Crichton, who was quite poor off the bench in the series opener.
The other centre is Matt Burton, who was in the Dally M Team of the Year last year as a centre, but has been playing halves at the Canterbury Bulldogs this year.
Other changes have also surprised, with Jake Trbojevic recalled.
The one change which could make all the difference is the move to bring Apisai Koroisau into the side. His move into the starting side with Damien Cook coming off the bench could be called a surprise, but it's the move which will determine the result of this game.
Koroisau has been outstanding for the Penrith Panthers, and the Blues were belted in the ruck and in the middle third during the first Origin contest.
A lot of that was down to the dynamic hooking duo for Queensland, with Harry Grant and Ben Hunt splitting the game between them, again made easier on the interchange front by the fact Cotter played so many minutes, and the fact Patrick Carrigan did the same from the bench.
Queensland will still be able to do similar given Josh Papalii will pick up more minutes after only playing 20 in the opener, but it won't fix the 80 minutes they lose from Cotter.
That said, Hunt and Grant will play a similar role, but given the enormous edge the duo gave them in Game 1, as well as the off night experienced by Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai, it's not clear whether Queensland would realistically be able to have the same level of sway over the game.
There is, however, little doubt that this game will be on a similar level intensity wise to what was a fantastic, fast-paced series-opener.
Prediction
The Blues simply must turn this around. Game 1 was close enough to suggest they can, although their changes have made little sense. Fittler’s time in charge of NSW could well live and die by the changes he has made, and it’s fair to say the response out of his players - many of whom were off in Game 1 - will be enormous.
Playing two hookers is something Fittler has got right though, and without 80 minutes from Cotter, it could make life quite difficult for the Maroons, who will be up against a side simply desperate to get the job done.
In an impossible game to tip, a decider in Brisbane a couple of weeks from now looms as the most likely result.
Blues by 2.
Be sure to keep it locked into Zero Tackle throughout the day, game and after the game for all the best analysis, opinion and news from the Origin arena as the Blues desperately look to keep the series alive.
Key game information
Kick-off: 7:50pm (AEST), 7:50pm (AWST)
Venue: Optus Stadium, Perth
TV: Live, Channel 9
Online: Live, 9Now
Betting: Blues $1.65, Maroons $2.25
Match officials
Referee: Ashley Klein
Touch judges: Phil Henderson & David Munro
Bunker official: Grant Atkins
Standby referee: Gerard Sutton
Standby touch judge: Drew Oultram
Teams
New South Wales Blues
1. James Tedesco 2. Brian To'o 3. Matt Burton 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Daniel Tupou 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Payne Haas 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. Jake Trbojevic 11. Cameron Murray 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo
Interchange: 14. Damien Cook 15. Angus Crichton 16. Junior Paulo 17. Siosifa Talakai 18. Nicho Hynes 20. Jordan McLean
Queensland Maroons
1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Dane Gagai 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Cameron Munster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Lindsay Collins 9. Ben Hunt 10. Josh Papali'i 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Felise Kaufusi 13. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui
Interchange: 14. Harry Grant 15. Jai Arrow 16. Patrick Carrigan 17. Jeremiah Nanai 18. Thomas Dearden 19. Thomas Flegler
