Round 8 was edge-of-the-seat stuff, with multiple highlights including The Dolphins' 28-26 comeback from 26-0 down, the Rabbitohs scoring in the 79th minute to hand the Panthers yet another loss with a margin of 2 points or less, as well as a cracking one-point win for the Roosters over the Dragons on ANZAC Day.
Each of the eight games featured pre-match ceremonies marking the commemoration of the men and women (and their families) who have served in Australia's armed forces, and an acknowledgement of those who continue to do so. Presentations were sombre and met with exemplary levels of respect from those in attendance.
Round 9: Tips and SuperCoach Notes
Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys
Thursday 27th April 7:50pm | Pointsbet Stadium, Sydney
Why the Sharks will win: The Cowboys may have taken the W in Round 8, but as their 2023 form continues to show, they are anything but convincing. The Sharks have one of the most consistently gelling spines right now in Kennedy, Moylan, Hynes and Brailey. On a cool evening in front of a rabid home crowd in Cronulla, the Sharks will have too much on their side to lose.
Why the Cowboys will win: Last round's win will have given the Cowboys a lot of confidence, even if it was only by 2, and it may be the boost to propel them back into the form that saw them finish in the top 4 in 2022. While on paper, the Sharks will go into the match as favourites, the Cowboys do offer considerable strike across the park with Scott Drinkwater and a host of Queensland origin incumbents through the backs and in the forwards.
Fansided tip: Sharks by 10
SuperCoach notes: Still owned by a third of all NRLSC players, Valentine Holmes finally provided a reason to hold, busting out a 105 and running strongly. Scott Drinkwater has a high ceiling but can pump out low scores, but is a POD option for those thinking of replacing Tom Trbojevic. With plenty of 2RFs failing to deliver, Briton Nikora is only owned by 3.8% of teams and has a 5-round average of 80.8. Sitting below the likes of Munster, Walker, Brown and co., Matthew Moylan is relatively good value at $508K with a 3-round average of just under 60 and owned by only 1.3% of teams.
Parramatta Eels vs Newcastle Knights
Friday 28th April 6:00pm | Commbank Stadium, Sydney
Why the Eels will win: Statistically, the Eels win three out of every four matches played at Commbank, and after a third of the 2023 season, their key players are standing up. Mitchell Moses, Dylan Brown and Clint Gutherson are all benefiting playing off the back of a forward pack that boasts Junior Paulo, Shaun Lane, Ryan Matterson, J'Maine Hopgood and Reagan Campbell-Gillard, admittedly with the latter missing this week. Commbank is an incredible home venue, and one that most teams would love to call their own. Eels to use the home crowd advantage to get home in a close one.
Why the Knights will win: The Knights will be pleased that Kalyn Ponga made it through last match's game against the Cowboys, and he has been selected to start at five-eighth. The Knights are not setting the world on fire but only have a points differential of -5 which goes to show that they are competitive in every game. Lachlan Miller has been a revelation at the back, while their outside backs are formidable. Ponga is the key to unlocking more attacking stats there, and they will favour their chances against two pairs of somewhat defensively flimsy backs at the Eels. Reagan Campbell-Gillard is a massive loss for Parramatta.
Fansided tip: Eels by 7
SuperCoach notes: After dropping $140K and with bye coverage for Round 13, Dylan Brown should be high on many punters' priority list. His ownership is less than expected at 14.5%, and despite having a run of pretty quiet performances is still averaging 64. For those who held Hopgood, the good news for you is that he looks to get back into an 80 minute role for as long as Campbell-Gillard is out injured. Brendan Hands is getting an average of 44 minutes, increasing slightly each week subbing for Josh Hodgson, and he's averaging 34.2 at $260K. For the Knights, Lachlan Fitzgibbon is showing good value at 2RF and $595K, averaging 64 and finding the try line semi-regularly. Ponga is extremely undervalued and owned by only 2.8% but many will be put off by the injury cloud and the potential upcoming Origin commitments.
Brisbane Broncos vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
Friday 28th April 8:00pm | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Why the Broncos will win: Across eight rounds, the Broncos have only played outside Queensland twice, and away from Suncorp Stadium three times. Further, every single one of their matches has been the last-posted night match on a Friday or Saturday, kicking off between 7:30pm - 8:00pm. That is an incredible run of consistent match conditions, offering them an opportunity to find rhythm very quickly in 2023. Once again, this match is scheduled at 8:00pm on a Friday night at Suncorp, and because of that, they have the edge in this extremely tight encounter.
Why the Rabbitohs will win: The Broncos will be without three of their biggest stars in Payne Haas, Corey Oates and Ezra Mam. They are replaced by players far inferior, albeit with a fair amount of NRL experience. Souths will have taken a lot of confidence from their final minute upset of the heavily favoured Penrith Panthers, and their key players in Latrell Mitchell, Cody Walker and Damien Cook are coming good in the lead up to a challenging Origin period.
Fansided tip: Souths by 4
SuperCoach notes: Reece Walsh has a challenging upcoming schedule and will likely struggle to maintain his 86.9 average. For the Rabbitohs, it might be time to take the plunge on Alex Johnston at $568K. His performance is always somewhat relative to how well Mitchell and Walker are traveling - and they're killing it right now. Michael Chee-Kam is putting out decent numbers and averaging 48.2 across an average of 73 minutes. Not bad for a dual 2RF/CTW at $406K.
Canberra Raiders vs The Dolphins
Saturday 29th April 3:00pm | McDonalds Park, Wagga Wagga
Why the Raiders will win: The Raiders are coming off the bye and welcome back Jordan Rapana. The inspirational Jarrod Croker is named again at centre as he makes his play towards the 300 first-grade matches milestone. Prior to the bye, the Raiders enjoyed wins over the Dragons and the first-placed Broncos. With much conjecture about the team's ability to win the premiership in 2023, Ricky Stuart will have had them working hard through the fortnight in preparation.
Why the Dolphins will win: The biggest NRL story this week has been the signing of Jack Wighton to Souths from 2024, which has certainly placed the spotlight on the club. Wighton has apparently made his intentions clear - to join a club with a hope of winning a premiership in the next four years. That will undoubtedly affect team morale and potentially cloud relationships with players in the team who approach every match with one goal in mind - to win the comp with the Canberra Raiders. The Dolphins on the other hand are riding high after a miraculous comeback victory and continuing to prove the pre-season doubters wrong. Wayne Bennett would have had them sweating bullets at training after their first half against the Titans and they will come out with significant resolve. The Raiders have taken their home game advantage to Wagga Wagga.
Fansided tip: Dolphins by 6
SuperCoach notes: With some underwhelming averages in the hooking position, Jeremy Marshall-King provides a viable POD play with a 3-round average of 76.3 and The Dolphins play in Rounds 13 and 14. After one of the most hilarious bombed tries of the year, punters shouldn't be too quick to write off Robert Jennings at $267K and a 2-game average of 50. It should be noted that Tesi Niu is expected back in the next 1-2 weeks however. The Raiders also feature in Rounds 13 and 14, and Joseph Tapine will not be involved in Origin, making him excellent dual position value at $640K averaging 62. Jarrod Croker looks to be an interesting proposition thanks to Nick Cotric's injury, and it's likely he holds his spot when Xavier Savage returns, seeing Albert Hopoate relegated.
Manly Sea Eagles vs Gold Coast Titans
Saturday 29th April 5:30pm | 4 Pines Park, Sydney
Why the Sea Eagles will win: The Titans are licking their wounds after a demoralising equal-largest choke in NRL history, giving up a 26-0 lead to go down to The Dolphins 28-26. The Titans have been playing better football but there's nothing worse than 'having the monkey on your back', and the Titans are earning a reputation for being a single-half-of-football team. Their resolve and focus will be tested in every game that starts to get close. No doubt the crowd at 4 Pines Park in Manly will be shouting reminders of Round 8 to the Titans players throughout the game.
Why the Titans will win: The Sea Eagles were pretty dismal against the last-placed Tigers in Round 8, and trailed on the scoreboard late in the match. Star full back Tommy Turbo looked hampered throughout the game, and that showed when he made a linebreak and was run down by a prop. He has been named to play, despite being taken from the field late with a groin complaint. Manly have also lost solid defending centre Brad Parker and five-eighth Josh Schuster.
Fansided tip: Manly by 6
SuperCoach notes: Clearly not 100%, Tom Trbojevic has not made owners as much coin as they would have liked, and he's sitting at $594K with injuries and a potential Origin campaign on the horizon. If you have other fires to put out, he's not an urgent sell, but he's close. Owned by only 0.8% of teams, AJ Brimson at $553K is looking more likely each week, and offers dual position FLB/5/8. Alofiana Khan-Pereira looks to have peaked after making $251K, and while he has a decent ceiling, it's likely that he offers scores under 25 more often than not.
Penrith Panthers vs Wests Tigers
Saturday 29th April 7:35pm | Carrington Park, Bathurst
Why the Panthers will win: The Panthers put 44 on the Sea Eagles and 53 on the Raiders before a shaky one point win over the Knights, followed by a grinding match against the formidable Rabbitohs where they led until the 79th minute. They are certainly below their best, but the Panthers on a bad day should still get the job done fairly comfortably over the Tigers on a good day.
Why the Tigers will win: With Izack Tago out through injury, and with Sunia Turuva potentially nursing a niggle, the Tigers could exploit this weaker side with noted tackle-breaking try-scorer David Nofoaluma. While nothing is yet confirmed, there are rumours that the Panthers could rest quite a few of their stars, including Nathan Cleary. Additionally in the Tigers' favour, this home match for Penrith has been taken to Bathurst. Wests will have absolutely nothing to lose in this one - nobody will give them a chance and they've been relentlessly slammed all week by sensationalist NRL commentariat, so the only way is up.
Fansided tip: Panthers by 10
SuperCoach notes: With injuries galore and the Storm with the bye, some punters could find themselves without 4 playing reserves this round. There are rumours that Nathan Cleary may be rested which would be dire for 53.4% of teams. Izack Tago is expected to miss 6 weeks, but don't expect Tyrone Peachey to maintain as a replacement for that length of time with young Jesse McLean and Thomas Jenkins also ready to have a crack in coming weeks. David Klemmer continues to pump out 1.1PPM and averages 52 minutes at $533K, while Apisai Koroisau looks to be finding his feet at the Tigers in the past few weeks and is only $545K. With Josh Schuster out once again, the alternative cheapies are Phoenix Crossland and Brandon Wakeham who at $274K should earn some slow cash.
New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters
Sunday 30th April 2:00pm | Mount Smart Stadium, Auckland
Why the Warriors will win: The Warriors looked sensational against the Storm at AAMI Park before crumbling and finding themselves with 0 players on the bench due to injuries late in the game. Despite that, they only trailed by 2 points until the 76th minute. This is a side not to be written-off. The Roosters looked leaky on the edge with Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii often looking pedestrian in defense, and partnered this week by similarly turnstile winger Corey Allan. The Warriors will lift at Mount Smart against a highly-favoured opposition, and they welcome back Wayde Egan at hooker.
Why the Roosters will win: Charnze Nikoll-Klokstad, Jazz Tevaga and Tohu Harris are all out for the New Zealand side this week, and that's massive. They may even be without backup five-eighth Dylan Walker if he falls at the judiciary. The Roosters have a far superior spine and bench, with Angus Crichton, Matt Lodge and Sitili Tupouniua ready to spell the forwards. While they only won by a point in Round 8, it was only through a lapse of 6 minutes that the Dragons were able to run in three tries, and coach Trent Robinson will have spoken about playing 80 minutes all week. The Roosters will want to wear the underdog tag this week so that they can rip in.
Fansided tip: Roosters by 8
SuperCoach notes: The time to buy Joseph Manu is now, and while the Roosters have the bye in Round 13, Manu will be one to take control of the team while their other origin stars are out. For those who dumped Brandon Smith early in the season, it should be noted that he is looking far more involved and has a 5-round average of 55, priced at $476K. For the Warriors, who play both Round 13 and 14, FRF Addin Fonua-Blake is a touch over $600K and boasts a 3-round average of 77.7. A number of Warriors players would have had inflated minutes last round due to injuries and so any higher than average scores should be taken with a grain of salt.
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
Sunday 30th April 4:05pm | Win Stadium, Wollongong
Why the Dragons will win: Neither side has won since the 2nd of April, but it has been the Dragons who have been more competitive in narrow losses. Last weekend's one point loss against the Roosters on ANZAC Day will have given them a lot of belief that they can be finals-bound, and will enjoy the home ground advantage at a wet and blustery WIN Stadium on a Sunday arvo.
Why the Bulldogs will win: The Bulldogs have made a bold move in dropping mainstay halfback Kyle Flanagan to NSW Cup after he contributed no try assists and only one line break assist in 8 rounds of footy. The Dogs will be hoping that the inspirational Josh Reynolds steps up to offer more creativity and more talk around the ruck, however don't be surprised if boom rookie Karl Oloapu gets a late call up. With players on the sideline including Josh Addo-Carr, Viliame Kikau, Jacob Kiraz and Luke Thompson, the blue and whites have still been playing with plenty of heart.
Fansided tip: Dragons by 10
SuperCoach notes: Undoubtedly a confidence player, Tyrell Sloan offers CTW/FLB coverage and has a 3-round average of 63.3 at $463K. He's in incredible form of late, and could run riot over a depleted Dogs outfit at WIN. Toby Couchman has made owners $98K in a short space of time, and looked filthy after dropping the ball in the dying seconds against the Roosters last week. Look for him to be heavily involved in his 40-50 minutes.
