Second-half blowouts aplenty in Round 7 saw the average winning margin blow out from the closer earlier round results, and the Newcastle Knights came agonisingly close to taking down the defending premiers.
We tipped 7 out of 8 last week here, thwarted only by a rejuvenated Sea Eagles outfit that disposed of the Melbourne Storm - no easy feat at all.
Round 8: Tips and SuperCoach Notes
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Penrith Panthers
Thursday 20th April 7:50pm | Accor Stadium, Sydney
Why the Rabbitohs will win: The Panthers were pretty awful last week against the Knights, not just by their own standards, but for any NRL team. With the exception of a handful, almost all players had a game to forget. The Dolphins proved that there is a relatively straight-forward way to beat the Rabbitohs, but when down to 12 men in the second half, were blitzed by a possession-dominance of 90% and three tries to South Sydney. The Rabbitohs will have taken a lot of confidence from that second half and the win against their old coach.
Why the Panthers will win: The best teams find a way. Penrith's only losses in 2023 (including the World Club Challenge) have all been by a solitary point. Based on this, you'd have to assume that they are no longer taking anything for granted, and becoming match-hardened. This is a dire prospect come finals time. In the big games, you'd have to start favouring the Panthers, based on the experience and character tests they're getting along the way.
Fansided tip: Panthers by 2
SuperCoach notes: Priced at $451K and with a 3-round average of 51.7, Moses Leota looks in a real bullying mood and last week belted out 1.4PPM and 46 minutes. For South Sydney, Latrell Mitchell and Campbell Graham are in a rich vein of form, averaging around 82 each. Alex Johnson ($546K) has hit what is likely to be his lowest price point and could be a pick up now, although Souths still have a tough run.
Parramatta Eels vs Brisbane Broncos
Friday 21st April 8:00pm | TIO Stadium, Darwin
Why the Eels will win: The Broncos have showed a chip in their armour over the past few rounds with their first loss in 2023 and then a scare against the Titans, trailing at half-time. No team gets examined more than the team sitting atop the ladder and teams are doing their homework. The Eels welcome back first-string hooker Josh Hodgson. The battle of the forwards will be fascinating: the Broncos have the youth, but the Eels have the big game experience and that will be the difference.
Why the Broncos will win: The Eels took a long time to get going against a severely depleted Bulldogs outfit that lost Jacob Kiraz in the opening quarter, and had Jake Averillo on one leg for most of the match. Last year's grand finalists are a long way from where they were. Further, this game is in Darwin and the Eels are used to cool nights at Commbank for their home matches. In big games like this, you look for the players that can split the game open, and the first thought that springs to mind is Reece Walsh. The Bronx to get this done in a tight one.
Fansided tip: Broncos by 6
SuperCoach notes: Averaging 76.3 across his four games, Ryan Matterson is passing the eye test, while holders of J'Maine Hopgood need to cut ties soon with him starting to look like a regular bench-starter and leaking cash. Dylan Brown has lost $138K and has a 3-round average of 58. He might be a good pick up around origin time, but then again, he may just be a lot less of a must-have gun in 2023. Brendan Hands is still a shout, considering he's $236K and averaging a tick under 35 in a side where Josh Hodgson is ageing and carrying some niggles.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs vs Cronulla Sharks
Saturday 22nd April 5:30pm | Accor Stadium, Sydney
Why the Bulldogs will win: Exciting youngsters Jeral Skelton and Karl Oloapu are named on an extended bench for the Bulldogs, and have not been named in NSW Cup. With so many injuries going into this game, the Bulldogs' big hopes will rest on playing unpredictably and by promoting some X-factor players. Whether or not these two get a run, keep in mind that despite missing so many regular first-graders, the Bulldogs still named an unchanged spine, and have shown a lot of heart over this challenging period.
Why the Sharks will win: After a week off in Round 6 and a muscle-flexing win over competition heavyweights the Roosters in Round 7, the Sharks are warming into the comp nicely. Nicho Hynes has come out recently saying he is hugely motivated to capture the Blues' five-eighth role, and he could come out and prove irresistible for selectors this week against a largely second-string Dogs outfit. The Sharks have far more proven try-scorers than the Bulldogs, so expect this one to blow-out.
Fansided tip: Sharks by 24
SuperCoach notes: Jake Averillo is named, but played most of last round with severe leg discomfort. This could herald the debut of $200K cheapie Jeral Skelton who has been carving it up in lower grades. For four years he played for the Australian Rugby Sevens team so you know he's got plenty of talent. Similarly, if Karl Oloapu ($200K)) gets the late call-up, it could signal a return to NSW Cup for Kyle Flanagan after again, failing to make this team his own. It was Teig Wilton who put his hand up last week to show he was the Sharks 2RF to gain from the losses of Toby Rudolf and Dale Finucane, and he loves to score a try or two against the Bulldogs.
North Queensland Cowboys vs Newcastle Knights
Saturday 22nd April 7:35pm | Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
Why the Cowboys will win: The Cows at home will field almost the same side that threatened for the title and ran 3rd in 2022, and most punters are finding it hard to tip against them week after week because they know what the team is capable of. Sitting in 16th after a third of the comp has passed will not please the fickle fan-base, so expect this to be the match the Cowboys turn up and throw their hat into the ring. The Knights have been solid, but have hardly set the world on fire, and it will be hard to pick themselves up after their heart-breaking loss to the Panthers in golden point.
Why the Knights will win: A lot has been written about the resilience of this Knights side that has been without gun fullback-turned-five-eighth, Kalyn Ponga. It just so happens that he returns this week, along with Origin prop Jacob Saifiti. Could they have beaten the underwhelming Panthers last week with these two stars? Potentially, yes. Expect plenty of fire in the belly after that one, and expect lots of involvement from Ponga, who would not be out there unless club doctors thought him well and truly fit.
Fansided tip: Cowboys by 8
SuperCoach notes: There are a host of Cowboys players who have dropped significant value after a dismal start to 2023. If they start to hit their straps soon, there could be some guns to buy at bottomed-out prices. For the Knights, you'd be pretty cocky if you were one of the 2.2% of owners who have Kalyn Ponga, given his susceptibility to injury. But at $530K, and heavily involved in the halves, he's massively underpriced. You'd expect Newcastle to have a strategy to protect him in defence. Phoenix Crossland ($296K) will be looking to make the hooking role his own for the rest of the year after Jayden Brailey's devastating season-ending injury.
The Dolphins vs Gold Coast Titans
Sunday 23rd April 2:00pm | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Why The Dolphins will win: If not for a 10-minute sin-bin that saw competition heavyweights South Sydney put three tries on them, the NRL's newest side would have potentially claimed a massive scalp last round. Despite lacking depth, the Dolphins have had more heart than a lot of more established sides and a number of players have stood up all year. If not for the high-flying Broncos, the Dolphins would be Queensland's number one team. High completion, high-percentage plays and a good balance of young strike and experienced go-forward, The Dolphins are finals-contenders in 2023.
Why the Titans will win: They've got plenty of points in them and the experience of Kieran Foran who has taken them a step above where they were in 2022. AJ Brimson is named on the extended bench and could be a late inclusion which would bolster the pack. They can still concede tries, but have tightened up their effort at the back end of games. They will have taken a lot of confidence after last week's match against league-leaders the Broncos where they led at half time.
Fansided tip: Dolphins by 7
SuperCoach notes: Not a huge amount of NRLSC-relevant players at The Dolphins, and it's not recommended spending $200K on benchie Kurt Donoghoe as he could prove to be an AE nightmare, averaging just 10 points out of 20 minutes across five weeks. More than one out of every five punters own David Fifita, but he's gone to new heights of late. Averaging 76 and with a massive ceiling, the main downside is that he'll likely be missing during the Origin period. Alofiana Khan-Pereira is not an urgent sell, but is nearest his peak surely. He is probably a hold for this game as he scored four tries against this Dolphins outfit in the trials and this match could be a high-scoring affair.
Wests Tigers vs Manly Sea Eagles
Sunday 23rd April 4:05pm | Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney
Why the Tigers will win: If the Tigers are desperate, then they will lift. If they are any chance at winning, they need to be desperate, not desolate. There's a lot of Tigers DNA and experience in the coaching box with Tim Sheens, Benji Marshall and Robbie Farah and fans must stay strong and keep the faith with the vision. Campbelltown Stadium is oft-described as under-utilised by the club, as it is a wonderful suburban ground that fans love to flock to. If the Tigers entity can focus on uniting, regardless of the plethora of external opinions, commentary and general noise, they can win.
Why the Sea Eagles will win: For many observers, it's not a matter of whether or Manly will win, but by how many. They will be further strengthened by the return of Reuben Garrick, Josh Schuster and Sean Keppie. A far superior spine will get the job done.
Fansided tip: Sea Eagles by 16
SuperCoach notes: The devastating season-ending injury to Adam Doueihi delivers opportunity to livewire Brandon Wakeham at $267K. He will look to hold the number 6 for the rest of the year and while the Tigers are underwhelming, he could be a slow burning cash generating NPR. For many, the gamble on Josh Schuster is an intriguing one. He's lowly priced, brimming with talent and potential, but has missed most of the year through injury, despite the Sea Eagles trumpeting his pre-season fitness.
Sydney Roosters vs St George Illawarra Dragons
Tuesday 25th April 4:05pm | Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Why the Roosters will win: The Roosters welcome back guns Angus Crichton and Sitili Tupouniua and will be up for this one after a surprise defeat in Cronulla last round. Allianz Stadium is becoming somewhat of a fortress for the tri-colours and they have a superior spine, back row, forward pack and bench on paper coming into the match. The Dragons have lost one of their most consistent performers in Jaydn Su'a for this contest.
Why the Dragons will win: Roosters' coach Trent Robinson has dropped star halfback Sam Walker to NSW Cup and promoted Joseph Manu into the 6. While there's no doubt more ball for Manu will be dangerous for the Red V, that's certainly a departure of experience and game management from a pivotal position. Despite two close losses in the last two rounds, the Dragons have been highly competitive off the back of an intensely-physical forward pack.
Fansided tip: Roosters by 12
SuperCoach notes: Jack Bird provides dual position, provides good bye-coverage and is in good touch. Additionally, he averages 87.5 at Allianz Stadium and is on a 3-round average of 70. At 2% ownership, he's a solid POD buy. With a lot of CTW's failing to fire, Tyrell Sloan at $404K is averaging just under 56 over the past three rounds and is dual position. Joseph Manu is only owned by 3% of teams and is hot property, potentially set for some highly-involved weeks in the five-eighth position and massively under-priced at $623K.
Melbourne Storm vs New Zealand Warriors
Tuesday 25th April 7:00pm | AAMI Park, Melbourne
Why the Storm will win: The Storm welcome back hard-man Nelson Asofa-Solomona and in-form fullback Nick Meaney in their return to fortress AAMI Park. They will be fired up after a hiccup loss to the Sea Eagles last week, previously posting dominant wins over South Sydney and the Roosters. The spine of Meaney, Munster, Hughes and Grant will have far too much to throw at the Warriors.
Why the Warriors will win: Always up for the ANZAC Day clash, the Warriors have a near full-strength lineup, with the exception of five-eighth Te Maire Martin. Showing that no opposition or stadium has a whole lot of weight stacked against them, they will be out to continue showing the competition that they are a far more formidable side in 2023. Nothing less than a finals appearance will satisfy them this year, so don't expect them to be push-overs in any match-up.
Fansided tip: Storm by 8
SuperCoach notes: With dual position status, Tohu Harris provides immense value at just over $600K and averaging just under 64. Josh Curran has shown glimpses of previous sparkling form, with a 3-round average of 61 and priced at $512K. He's an uber-POD at 0.3% ownership. Eliesa Katoa is averaging 86 at AAMI Park in 2023.
