We are officially on the home stretch to the NRL finals, with State of Origin resolved for 2023.
It's an incredibly tight race and you can expect rugby league commentators to start referencing teams' 'mathematical chances'. Only the bottom three teams can realistically start planning their Mad Monday celebrations.
For SuperCoach players, every match matters, and every player is relevant right up until the final siren. That's the beauty of fantasy football.
Round 22: Tips and SuperCoach Notes
Brisbane Broncos vs Sydney Roosters
Thursday 27th July 7:50pm | The Gabba, Brisbane
Why the Broncos will win: There have been rumblings of the Roosters being back after their defeat of the Gold Coast Titans last week. But it's important to note that the Titans were without their inspirational go-forward captain and that the game was a tale of two halves: the second half for the Roosters was poor. Brisbane got the job done against a near full-strength Rabbitohs side and are laying everything on the line with a top-four finish in mind. Star fullback Reece Walsh returned after suspension and picked up where he had left off.
Why the Roosters will win: It's been said all year - the Roosters are brimming with representative talent, and for them to miss the finals would be a travesty. James Tedesco had a big game last week, and that needs to happen in every game to keep their hopes of 2023 alive.
Fansided tip: Broncos by 10
SuperCoach notes: Regular NRLSC coaches will be forgiven for revisiting a nagging desire to get Kotoni Staggs into their side. Traditionally hot and extremely cold, Staggs has a breakeven of -14 and, at just $462K, vaunts a 3-round average of 69. For the Roosters, Joseph Suaalii has made a solid return from suspension and, as he nears the end of his time in Bondi, has a 3-round average of 70.3.
Wests Tigers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
Friday 28th July 6:00pm | Scully Park, Tamworth
Why the Tigers will win: With his future in Manly providing clarity and with a large section of the NRL media off his back, Luke Brooks was playing with renewed vigour, and he returns this week. He won't want to finish the year with the wooden spoon again, and his combination with Api Koroisau over the final rounds will be pivotal.
Why the Rabbitohs will win: A huge shadow looms at the back of the park, making Tigers fans uneasy. Latrell Mitchell is named to make his return from an injury that saw him miss the entire State of Origin campaign, and he will bring a sense of desperation to focus on a Souths premiership after missing the chance to bring NSW glory in 2023.
Fansided tip: Rabbitohs by 12
SuperCoach notes: Scoring 136 in a low-scoring loss to the Dragons last week, Junior Tupou has emerged as a POD prospect for the run home, although his season average is around the 48 mark. The boat hasn't sailed yet, but it's leaving the dock on Cameron Murray. Priced in the mid $400Ks last week, he's jumped to $533K and has a BE of 13 this week. He's a proven gun and boasts a 3-round average of 72.7.
Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels
Friday 28th July 8:00pm | Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Why the Storm will win: The Storm haven't really impressed this year, yet they still sit in the top four and that says more about our expectations of the team than it does about their on-field performances. Suffering an unexpected loss to Newcastle last week after dominating early, they'll be up for a big one back in their hometown. The return of damaging ball-runner Eliesa Katoa will bolster them.
Why the Eels will win: Melbourne will be missing both of their first-choice centres in Justin Olam and Reimis Smith, and last week looked completely different when Nelson Asofa-Solomona was off the field - and he's out too. The Eels, who were grand-finalists last year, don't have the easiest of runs to finish the year and will therefore consider every match they play as 2023's grand final.
Fansided tip: Eels by 2
SuperCoach notes: There's not a huge amount of NRLSC relevance in this game; suffice to say that three of the top ten most-owned players will feature, in J'maine Hopgood (2nd), Harry Grant (4th) and Cameron Munster (10th).
Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights
Saturday 29th July 3:00pm | GIO Stadium, Canberra
Why the Raiders will win: The Raiders are the team that won't go down without a fight - which is unusual because leading up to this point, they'd started attracting the tag 'faders' - falling away at the back end of games. This game has the potential to be a tight contest and that should favour Canberra. The Green Machine can almost reach out and touch that elusive top four finish that gives so much advantage in the finals. They'll be on a mission to close out the season.
Why the Knights will win: Enjoying a training gallop over bottom-three sides the Bulldogs and Tigers, the Knights surprised many close followers of the NRL last week, defeating the third-placed Melbourne Storm after trailing early. This team has a lot of creativity with Ponga, Gamble, Hastings and Crossland, and the backline of Young, Gagai, Best and Marzhew has plenty of points to trouble any side.
Fansided tip: Raiders by 4
SuperCoach notes: Kalyn Ponga, Lachlan Fitzgibbon and Bradman Best all feature in the NRLSC top ten most-traded-in this week. Ponga, in particular is in stellar touch, boasting a 3-round average of 137.7. For the Raiders, Matthew Timoko has played like he's covered in spiders over the past few months, breaking tackles and the line at will.
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Manly Sea Eagles
Saturday 29th July 5:30pm | WIN Stadium, Wollongong
Why the Dragons will win: With finals football out of reach, Dragons players are now playing for a spot in Shane Flanagan's 2024 lineup. On one hand, it can be argued that once teams have little to play for, the white flag goes up. On the other hand, teams that are no longer under pressure can come out and produce their best football. At WIN Stadium on a cold and blustery afternoon, you'd be foolish to write the Red V off completely.
Why the Sea Eagles will win: It's a milestone game for one of the NRL's most decorated players, with Daly Cherry-Evans pulling on the number 7 jersey for the 300th time in first grade. This season has shown that milestone games don't always mean a win, but the Sea Eagles have looked dangerous in the latter stages of this season. Leading 30-0 against the Sharks in Cronulla last week, they will be filthy on themselves for letting the Sharks close the gap to just 4 by the end of the game. They'll be switched on for this one.
Fansided tip: Sea Eagles by 7
SuperCoach notes: Zac Lomax is awkwardly priced but in seasons past he's been a borderline keeper in the CTW. He's certainly showing his brilliance at the pointy end of the season now that the pressure of 2023 is all but relieved. Mikaele Ravalawa has been finding the try line somewhat regularly of late, and boasts a 3-round average of 77.7.
Penrith Panthers vs Cronulla Sharks
Saturday 29th July 7:35pm | BlueBet Stadium, Penrith
Why the Panthers will win: The Sharks are missing an element of leadership and defensive integrity, and the absence of Dale Finucane will be felt this week as the slide towards the bottom-nine continues. The Panthers are at near full-strength and at home, this juggernaut will continue rolling towards the minor, and perhaps major premiership.
Why the Sharks will win: After being cemented in the top four for much of the season, they will be keen to quickly arrest their shortcomings. What better way to quieten the headlines about their inability to beat the top sides and avoid missing the finals than to ambush the premiership favourites? They have the points in them and will need to be at their creative best to get the job done against the best defensive outfit in the NRL.
Fansided tip: Panthers by 14
SuperCoach notes: Loading up on Sharks outside backs might have been a good strategy in theory, but this could be a quiet game for them. Nicho Hynes had a relatively poor game last week, (for the standards of a reigning Dally M medalist), but still managed to rack up an 86. Dylan Edwards is a well-priced and highly-reliable solid-scoring fullback, while Nathan Cleary is practically a must-have for the run home.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs vs The Dolphins
Sunday 30th July 2:00pm | Salter Ovan, Bundaberg
Why the Bulldogs will win: The Doggies will take their home match to Bundaberg this week, and potentially field their strongest lineup this year. With Josh Addo-Carr, Toby Sexton, Viliame Kikau and Jacob Preston all returning from injury, the Blue and Whites could also hand a club-debut to Liam Knight after he departed the Rabbitohs mid-week. Far from his best after battling serious injuries, Knight has undeniable potential and would add to a forward pack which has been light-on for the majority of the year.
Why the Dolphins will win: Canterbury will likely have 2024 at the forefront of their thinking now that the finals are out of reach, and while they've tried hard all year, their last several rounds have showcased some serious defensive lapses in segments of the games which has blown the scorelines out to beyond where they should probably have been. The Dolphins have an abundance of strike-power and an experienced forward pack which will get them on the front-foot.
Fansided tip: Dolphins by 8
SuperCoach notes: Ready to line up against his 2024 club, Jake Averillo has undoubtedly looked his best at fullback throughout his time at the Bulldogs. At just $497K, he's a CTW/FLB dual position and offers a 3-round average of 77.7.
Gold Coast Titans vs North Queensland Cowboys
Sunday 30th July 4:05pm | Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
Why the Titans will win: Still a 'mathematical chance' as mentioned above, the Titans are on their last chance for the season. Every match from here on in is a must-win. This Queensland derby must be played like it's a grand final. The atmosphere at Cbus Super Stadium will be electric for the final match of the round, with plenty on the line.
Why the Cowboys will win: Since 66 points were put on them at Leichhardt Oval by the Tigers, the Cowboys have completely turned the corner. They've officially entered the top eight and are now challenging for the top four. They have the squad to challenge for the title, but as history has shown, those in the top four have a far better chance of taking the spoils. The Cowboys won't be slowing down any time soon. Expect them to be ruthless in this one.
Fansided tip: Cowboys by 20
SuperCoach notes: Semi Valemei looks a massive POD prospect at $572K. Averaging 71.5 for the season, he's at a 3-round average of 80.3 and the Cowboys have a delicious draw to finish the year. Meanwhile, Scott Drinkwater is now the most expensive player in NRLSC at $1,081,000. He has a 5-round average of 123.2 and along with Reece Walsh, is the most dynamic fullback in the game right now.
