As the season wears on, the blowouts and upsets become more and more frequent. In Round 15, the average winning margin was a whopping 22 points - a far cry from Round 1 where the average winning margin was 8.5.
Canberrans will be feeling pretty empty this week after Jarrod Croker's 300th NRL match was spoiled at GIO Stadium by an impressive Warriors outfit, led by the sublime Shaun Johnson.
The Roosters are still the worst attacking side in the NRL, which is shocking, considering the strike they have across the park.
* Teams with the Bye in Round 16: Broncos, Dolphins, Dragons, Rabbitohs, Raiders, Titans, Warriors
Round 16: Tips and SuperCoach Notes
North Queensland Cowboys vs Penrith Panthers
Friday 16th June 8:00pm | Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
State of Origin Outs: Brian To'o, Jarome Luai, Isaah Yeo, Liam Martin, Stephen Crichton, Reece Robson, Valentine Holmes, Murray Taulagi, Jeremiah Nanai, Reuben Cotter
Why the Cowboys will win: The Panthers will be replacing Jarome Luai and Nathan Cleary with Jaeman Salmon and Jack Cogger, while the Cowboys at home will have an almost unchanged spine, with premiership-winning hooker Jake Granville a decent sub for Origin-debutante Reece Robson. Both teams are missing five players each to Origin, but for Penrith's remaining spine, only Dylan Edwards has more than half a season of experience in the position at the club. North Queensland are boosted by the return of wrecking ball Jason Taumalolo.
Why the Panthers will win: Jack Cogger did a sensational job in Nathan Cleary's absence last week, and it's oft-mentioned that the Panthers are so well-structured that reserves who step up into first grade are able to know their role immediately. The team sheets are fairly evenly matched across the board here, but the Panthers' bench of Soni Luke, Lindsay Smith, Spencer Leniu and Luke Garner has the edge.
Fansided tip: Cowboys by 6
SuperCoach notes: Be wary of jumping on Jason Taumalolo at $491K. While it's a great price for a previous gun, he is likely going to see the year out between 40-50 minutes per game. Dylan Edwards has now dropped under $700K and averages 73.5. He's the fittest player at the club, and quite probably the most consistent when it comes to effort. Jack Cogger looks to be a decent stand-in for Nathan Cleary, but is more of an organising half, averaging 0.4PPM and unlikely to have an attacking ceiling.
Newcastle Knights vs Sydney Roosters
Saturday 17th June 3:00pm | McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
State of Origin Outs: Tyson Frizell, James Tedesco, Lindsay Collins
Why the Knights will win: The Roosters will be without the heart and soul of the club in James Tedesco, and while they're star-studded across the park, they've been the most disappointing club in 2023. The Bondi-based team have the worst attack out of all 17 clubs. Meanwhile, the Knights have showed an ability to compete with the best, nearly toppling the Broncos at Suncorp last week. With Kalyn Ponga at the helm and Lachlan Fitzgibbon returning to be a handy replacement for Origin-bound Tyson Frizell, the Knights should get the job done at home.
Why the Roosters will win: It's so difficult to ever write the Roosters off completely. While they've been well below their own standards for most of the year, they still have the lineup on paper to challenge each week. Sam Walker has still not done enough to regain the halfback position, and his replacement Sandon Smith has plenty of spark. Joseph Manu is an X-factor at fullback and is more dominant there than at centre or five-eighth. At some point, the Roosters will flip the switch. It could be this week.
Fansided tip: Knights by 10
SuperCoach notes: Greg Marzhew is out of this week's game for missing the team bus. He has been solid this year, particularly in attack. Owners will be hoping that Enari Tuala does not have a blinder on the weekend. Joseph Manu has now dropped $258K and surely poses good value if starting at fullback, although Dom Young for the Knights is similarly priced and in considerably better form.
Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles
Saturday 17th June 5:30pm | CommBank Stadium, Sydney
State of Origin Outs: Mitchell Moses, Junior Paulo, Tom Trbojevic, Daly Cherry-Evans,
Why the Eels will win: Both the Eels and Sea Eagles will be without their inspirational halfbacks this week. Jake Arthur will be playing against his old club, coached by his father, Brad, and who could know his game better? Daejarn Asi was brilliant against the Bulldogs last week, standing in for Dylan Brown, and partnered with the strong and versatile Ryan Matterson will offer staunch defense and second-phase play through the middle. Clinton Gutherson is back to his best, and his opposite number Tom Trbojevic is out. Parramatta at home will be too strong.
Why the Sea Eagles will win: Manly put the cleaners through a weakened Dolphins side last week in what was essentially a training run. While it's not the best lead-in for a tough contest, it will have their attack sharpened. Reuben Garrick was outstanding in that game, with a record-equaling 30 points. This game will be tight. The Eels have the 5th highest error count in the NRL, while the Sea Eagles are safer with the ball in 12th position for errors.
Fansided tip: Eels by 7
SuperCoach notes: With no backup hookers named on the bench, Brendan Hands ($237K) could play 80 minutes again this week, although last week he only posted 0.5PPM. He's definitely a cheap option while Josh Hodgson nurses a neck injury. Luca Moretti (2RF $200K) finds his way onto the bench for his third NRL game of the year and while his minutes are low, his PPM average is between 1.3 - 1.6 which is huge. Clint Gutherson is only $677K and has a 3-round average of 81.3. With hooking options pretty light in NRLSC at the moment, Lachlan Croker is worth a look at $485K and with a 3-round average of 69.7.
Wests Tigers vs Melbourne Storm
Saturday 17th June 7:35pm | Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney
State of Origin Outs: Stefano Utoikamanu, Xavier Coates, Cameron Munster, Harry Grant
Why the Tigers will win: Half of the Storm spine is missing, with Cameron Munster and Harry Grant on Origin duty. Starford To'a has been in career-best form and will wear the number 6 while Luke Brooks is injured. All eyes will be on Tallyn Da Silva in this home match at Campbelltown with those close to the club talking him up. The Tigers will be desperate to climb off the bottom of the ladder after making major advances in form over the past two months.
Why the Storm will win: No Api Koroisau and no Luke Brooks. That's bad news for the Tigers, as both were largely responsible for the recent form revival of the squad. While they've been hot and cold all year, the Storm are currently on 'hot' mode and their three Origin representatives are handily covered by George Jennings, Jonah Pezet and Bronson Garlick.
Fansided tip: Storm by 14
SuperCoach notes: John Bateman will captain the Tigers this week and he is already a base-stats machine. He has a 3-round average of 86 and will be desperate to do all he can to lead his side to an upset win. Jahream Bula was once considered merely a cash-cow, but he has shown that he is a keeper option at fullback, now owned by 31.3% of NRLSC players.
Cronulla Sharks vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
Sunday 18th June 4:05pm | PointsBet Stadium, Sydney
State of Origin Outs: Josh Addo-Carr
Why the Sharks will win: Sensationally dumped from the NSW Origin side, Nicho Hynes will be hurting. He would be forgiven for feeling somewhat misled, chosen at 14 as the most-likely halfback coverage for Nathan Cleary. He will be in a mood this Sunday, unfortunately for the Bulldogs. And despite their positions on the ladder, it is the Bulldogs who have an Origin-out. The Sharks will be full strength at home. The Bulldogs continue to be their own worst enemy, compounded by injury concerns and a concerning draw to run home.
Why the Bulldogs will win: While the scoreboard last week was unflattering, it was a 9 minute period where the Bulldogs conceded three converted tries. Of an 80 minute game, the Bulldogs were competitive for 60 minutes. Unlike several other teams languishing at the bottom of the ladder, the Bulldogs are able to take positives from each loss, always in every contest and always giving maximum effort. There are some individual performances letting the side down and if they are cleaned up, the 'Dogs have more wins in them.
Fansided tip: Sharks by 22
SuperCoach notes: Averaging 93.6 for the year, Nicho Hynes has averaged 68 over the past five weeks, clearly mentally-affected by Origin selections. Now that he is unlikely to get another shot this year, his attention will likely turn to focusing on the Sharks' run to the finals. For the Bulldogs, both Jake Averillo and Paul Alamoti are now potentially playing for contracts at other clubs for 2024 and may likely become more involved. Jayden Okunbor is rewarding those who got on early, making $135K in the past few weeks.
Queensland Maroons vs NSW Blues
Wednesday 21st June 8:05pm | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Why the Maroons will win: Suncorp Stadium. Almost nothing more needs to be said: this home ground advantage is so daunting for a NSW side that is struggling to stay in the series. Queensland has made three injury-related changes that are at the least, like-for-like, if not even more lethal. Xavier Coates and Jeremiah Nanai are try-scoring X-factor players, while the inclusion of Moeaki Fotuaika is well-deserved.
Why the Blues will win: The do-or-die mentality can break many players apart, but NSW, with their backs against the wall in a hostile environment have some of the NRL's most resilient and dynamic game-breakers. Injury and form-issues will be cast aside as James Tedesco, Latrell Mitchell, Tom Trbojevic and Damien Cook all rise to lift the series into a decider.
It's important to remember that even though NSW lost the first game, they played fairly average and still should have won, leading for most of the contest. Everyone remembers who won Game One, but Queensland were the second-best side through most of the contest. Nathan Cleary had a very quiet game, easily contained by the Maroons. Mitchell Moses may not have Cleary's consistency, but his kicking game is almost on-par, and he brings a firey demeanour that NSW has been missing. This will be his only remaining chance to stake a claim in the side, and he will not go missing.
Fansided tip: NSW by 1
