It's crunch time in NRL SuperCoach land as we approach the State of Origin series.
In Round 11 we saw:
* The Panthers flex their muscles over an increasingly disappointing Roosters side;
* The Raiders win their fifth in a row;
* The Melbourne Storm continue their home ground dominance over the Broncos;
* The cellar-dwelling Tigers keep premiership favourites the Rabbitohs to only one try until the 73rd minute.
Round 12 is Indigenous Round, and while there is plenty of positivity surrounding the significance of the occasion, it's pretty disappointing that the New Zealand Warriors are not a part of it.
Before we get into Round 12 tips and Supercoach pointers, to help you with your trades, here are the list of teams playing in Rounds 13 and 14.
Teams that play in Round 13:
Dolphins, Dragons, Eels, Cowboys, Warriors, Broncos, Rabbitohs, Raiders, Knights and Sea Eagles
Teams that play in Round 14:
Tigers, Raiders, Warriors, Dolphins, Titans, Rabbitohs, Sharks, Broncos, Roosters, Bulldogs, Cowboys, Storm, Panthers, Dragons
Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers
Thursday 18th May 7:50pm | Suncorp Stadium
Why the Broncos will win: Back to Suncorp - it's the Broncos' eighth match there out of 12 rounds. Payne Haas was declared to be potentially the best front rower of all time by Phil Gould and others during the week and he sits alone at the top of the Dally M scoreboard. While plenty went against them last week at AAMI Park, the loss was by a small margin and they spent a chunk of the game down to 12 men. Brisbane is a resolute, confident side.
Why the Panthers will win: A huge blow to Brisbane with Adam Reynolds being rested after suffering a head knock last week. While there is plenty of balance and strike across the Broncos' roster, Reynolds is the glue that binds it all together. Penrith made yet another statement last week by completely dismantling premiership favourites the Roosters, and Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai let their football confirm that they are the favoured halves pairing for NSW.
Fansided tip: Penrith by 8
SuperCoach notes: Payne Haas is a must have, but the debate is about whether or not to get him in before Origin. Half the comp owns him already. For Penrith, Scott Sorensen banged out a ridiculous 175 last week. He has been averaging 1.2PPM and 55 minutes this season, and he's only owned by 0.9% of SuperCoaches. Tyrone Peachey ($404K) has been an interesting prospect. He is now averaging around 60 with a PPM of 0.9.
St George-Illawarra Dragons vs Sydney Roosters
Friday 19th May 6:00pm | Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Sydney
Why the Dragons will win: New coach, new desire, new start. The unusual positional changes made by Anthony Griffin have been reversed, with Zac Lomax returning to first grade on his preferred side, Jacob Liddle returning to the hooker role and Ben Hunt in his favoured halfback position. The Roosters were dreadful last week, and poor for a number of rounds. Joseph Manu is a big out, while Jared Waerea-Hargreaves may still end up missing this match.
Why the Roosters will win: There is simply too much class on this Roosters roster to ever rule them out, and a number of high profile players are simply not used to losing. Expect a big game from James Tedesco whose NSW jersey is potentially under threat from Dylan Edwards, based on form. The Dragons have a new coach, but don't be fooled - this is a team that is almost completely rudderless at the moment.
Fansided tip: Roosters by 4
SuperCoach notes: Joseph Manu may end up being the most traded out player this week, even though his injury likely sees him only missing one game. The Chooks have the Bye in Round 13 and Sam Walker could be recalled to the halves sooner than expected. Jack De Belin has a 3-round average of 82 and will feature in Rounds 13 and 14. James Tedesco has lost a staggering $280K, has a 3-round average of 49 and put on a dismal 29 last round.
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Parramatta Eels
Friday 19th May 8:00pm | Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Why the Rabbitohs will win: Souths have shown a few additional dimensions in 2023, one of which is a much-improved right-side attack, and the other is a step up in defensive resolve. While they were favoured to put a cricket score on the Tigers last week, they were cool-headed enough to weather the enthusiastic storm early on, working on building pressure instead of desperately trying to put on a tonne of points. It was only 8-0 at the 72nd minute, but they'd done enough to take it out to 20-0 very quickly.
Why the Eels will win: Mitchell Moses is back and that boosts the Eels' chances of winning considerably. Their last two starts have resulted in disappointing losses, but only by margins of 2 and 8. It's worth remembering that the Eels were the 2022 Grand Finalists and if they get things right, they're hard to beat. This could be the week they aim up and show their fans that they're right back in contention in 2023.
Fansided tip: Souths by 12
SuperCoach notes: Be wary of jumping on Andrew Davey after news that Shaun Lane will miss 6-8 weeks - Ryan Matterson will likely be called upon to start in the near future. Clint Gutherson is a handy POD option at fullback, still managing a 57 last week in a loss where he spent time in the sin-bin. Hame Sele and Liam Knight are cruising along under the radar, both with a 1.1PPM. If they get more minutes during the Origin period they're worth a look.
Cronulla Sharks vs Newcastle Knights
Saturday 20th May 3:00pm | C.ex Coffs International Stadium, Coffs Harbour
Why the Sharks will win: This will be Nicho Hynes' last opportunity to show NSW selectors that he cannot be left out of the team. He is always very involved, but he may take things to another level this week. The Sharks have been winning ugly, which is pleasing, but they will likely be desperately wanting improvement. Cronulla has an edge on paper in the spine, forwards and on the bench. The battle of the outside backs will be a cracker in this match-up.
Why the Knights will win: The Sharks take their home game North to Coffs Harbour this week, and that is absolutely something in the Knights' favour. The Bye in Round 10 came at a good time for the Newcastle side, as they looked rejuvenated last week, putting 46 points on the Titans. If their attack is clicking, they have a shot at upsetting the Sharks who have not been happy with their defensive effort all year. Kalyn Ponga was scintillating and that will give fans a lot of confidence and enthusiasm.
Fansided tip: Sharks by 7
SuperCoach notes: Royce Hunt ($353K) has always been a PPM beast, it's just that his minutes are around the 30 per game mark which is not ideal. 1.7PPM last week in 35 minutes earned owners a solid 60. Keep an eye on late mail this week as Thomas Hazelton ($252K) could see more minutes. Only the bravest would own Kalyn Ponga at the moment, but his form last week was so tantalising. He's a watch across the Origin period and could be a sensational buy to finish out the year.
Wests Tigers vs North Queensland Cowboys
Saturday 20th May 5:30pm | Leichhardt Oval, Sydney
Why the Tigers will win: Two solid wins and an admirable performance against South Sydney have the Tigers back into good areas. They were able to keep the premiership heavyweights to only one try until the 73rd minute. The Tigers' fans will have renewed enthusiasm for 2023 and I'd expect Leichhardt Oval to be a sell out. On a Saturday afternoon, the crowd support could get them over the line.
Why the Cowboys will win: Magic Round proved to be the elixir for the Cowboys, returning to form more comparable to their 2022 season over the past two weeks. That's bad news for the Tigers, who could once again enter into a losing streak if North Queensland are in a mood. The Cowboys can take this one out if their forwards aim up again.
Fansided tip: Cowboys by 6
SuperCoach notes: Heilum Luki burst back onto the scene last week but he's worth watching for another week to see if this form holds up. He won't score two tries every week. With the Cowboys likely losing Cotter, Nanai (if available) and maybe even Hess to Origin, Luki could still be a solid buy soon. Isaiah Papali'i is still great value at $577K, notching a 65 last week in a side that scored 0 points. Jahream Bula continues to show that he deserves the fullback jersey long term.
The Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm
Saturday 20th May 7:35pm | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Why the Dolphins will win: At the time of writing, The Dolphins are $2.80 outsiders to beat the Storm, yet out of the two sides, have shown a fair amount more consistency. Those who continue to bet against the Redcliffe-based side often end up eating their own words. Jesse Bromwich returns to face his old club and that's a massive boost. The Dolphins have belief and momentum and sit in 6th position near the half-way mark of the competition. Forget what the bookies say and forget about roster match-ups. The Dolphins are a chance in every game.
Why the Storm will win: Courage and heart will only get you so far, and it will ultimately be the experience and big-game plays from marquee men Harry Grant, Cameron Munster and Nelson Asofa-Solomona that will get the Storm home. Last week's de-throning of ladder-leaders the Brisbane Broncos will have given this Storm side plenty of confidence.
Fansided tip: Storm by 2
SuperCoach notes: Christian Welch ($491K) had a bounce back to form with a 68 (1.3PPM) last week and looked more enthused to offload. Those who jumped onto Valynce Te Whare last week will be disappointed not to see him named this week, but Wayne Bennett likely knows the potential. Magic Round was probably a taste and Bennett will have him training like a madman for more game time later in the year. Kodi Nikorima ($375K) has a 3-round average of 60.3.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs vs Gold Coast Titans
Sunday 21st May 2:00pm | Accor Stadium, Sydney
Why the Bulldogs will win: It's been an exhausting season for the Bulldogs thus far and many players have had to step up to cover the long list of injured players. Next week will be their first bye of the season and they'll want to go into that week off with momentum. The Titans can score plenty, but they leaked 46 to the Knights last week. Josh Addo-Carr delayed his return until this round, and adds 6-12 points to the Bulldogs card on average. Try-scoring beast Alofiana Khan-Pereira will sit this one out, with former Bulldog Aaron Schoupp ready to take his spot and providing a target in attack.
Why the Titans will win: It's the Bulldogs stats once again that show me they cannot win. The Bulldogs rank second last for completion rate, third in errors, first in penalties conceded and first in tries and points conceded. If the Titans play a steady game, the Bulldogs will give them plenty of invitations to score.
Fansided tip: Titans by 14
SuperCoach notes: Harrison Edwards has shaky job security, but at $297K is averaging 58 across his three games in 2023. Last week he produced a 94 (1.4PPM) across 68 minutes and this week he starts in the 13 against a Gold Coast side that can concede plenty of points. Karl Oluapu ($219K) has been given the start in the number 6, shifting Josh Reynolds to the bench. Owned by only 0.9%, Brian Kelly ($600K) has a 3-round average of 76.3 and could have a field day against the 'Dogs.
Canberra Raiders vs Manly Sea Eagles
Sunday 21st May 4:05pm | GIO Stadium, Canberra
Why the Raiders will win: Five in a row, under adversity and media scrutiny. That's solid. Manly have also lost a fair amount of front-row experience with Aaron Woods, Josh Aloiai and Kelma Tuilagi all set for stints on the sideline. The Raiders have a good record at the chilly GIO Stadium in Canberra, particularly on a Sunday afternoon, and Raiders fans will be there in big numbers, beginning to sense big things in Jack Wighton's last year at the club.
Why the Sea Eagles will win: In a massive boon for the Sea Eagles, workhorse Jake Trbojevic returns to tighten up the middle. Josh Schuster is also a welcome return into five-eighth, and while he's had his share of injuries, has plenty of creative attacking flair that could cause big problems for Canberra. The Raiders have also lost first-choice hooker Zac Woolford, although Danny Levi has returned to provide coverage there.
Fansided tip: Raiders by 12
SuperCoach notes: At $554K, Taniela Paseka has to be worth another look with several key Manly forwards missing and a 1.3PPM across 50 minutes. Ben Trbojevic has looked good across his 6 games this year, has dual CTW/2RF status, is priced at a mere $236K, boasts a 1.2PPM, starts at lock this week and has a golden last name. Need any more reason? Incredibly, Hudson Young is owned by only 1.7% of punters but has a 3-round average of 71.7. Be careful though, he is touted as a smoky for Origin.