PERTH, AUSTRALIA - AUGUST 05: Josh Kerr of the Dolphins looks on during the round 23 NRL match between Dolphins and Newcastle Knights at Optus Stadium on August 05, 2023 in Perth, Australia. (Photo by Will Russell/Getty Images)
The dust has settled from the release of the NRL draw, and while fairness is never possible, the Origin period is always a bug bear of fans.
Zero Tackle have analysed the strength of every team's schedule during the Origin period to determine just how bad your team has it.
For the purposes of this, we are stating that the Origin period starts in Round 13 (the round leading into Game 1 of the series when players will sit out and teams have byes) and concludes with Round 20 (the round after Game 3).
In that period, the rounds are as follows.
Round 13: Before Origin 1, five games, seven byes.
Round 14: After Origin 1, seven games, three byes.
Round 15: Full round between Origin 1 and 2.
Round 16: Before Origin 2, five games, seven byes.
Round 17: After Origin 2, seven games, three byes.
Round 18: Full round between Origin 2 and 3
Round 19: Before Origin 3, five games, seven byes.
Round 20: After Origin 3, seven games, three byes.
Use the drop down menu below to navigate between each club.
Fixtures: Bye, Sharks (home), Rabbitohs (away), Bye, Warriors (away), Panthers (home), Dragons (home), Knights (away)
Number of byes: 2
The Broncos have done exceedingly well out of their Origin period draw. The big boost for the club is that they have byes leading into both Game 1 and 2 of the series.
Brisbane, as we know, will provide plenty of players come Origin time, so only having to play one game without those players is an enormous boost.
They play the Dragons prior to Game 3 as well, and while the Red V do present some level of unknown under Shane Flanagan, they are certainly, on paper at least, not going to be one of the title challengers.
Their games after the three Origins are a bit tougher though, with the Sharks, Warriors and Knights on the menu. The game away from home against the Warriors just three days after Origin 2 will likely see a number of players sit out, so that could be one of the tougher assignments Brisbane faces all year.
Overall, this is certainly a better time of it than some clubs will face.
Difficulty: 5/10
Fixtures: Dolphins (away), Bye, Cowboys (home), Tigers (away), Storm (away), Knights (home), Bye, Warriors (home)
Number of byes: 2
The Raiders have their Origin period byes after Game 1 and before Game 3, meaning they will play prior to Game 1 and 2 (against the Dolphins and Tigers), without their Origin players.
How many of them there are remains to be seen, but you'd expect the likes of Corey Horsburgh and Hudson Young will be at the very least in the mix for the green machine.
That could leave them a little short in the forwards for those games, but it also likely means that, on the whole, they are unaffected by the series.
Playing the Dolphins and Tigers won't exactly strike fear into the Raiders either, and getting to take on the likes of the Cowboys and Storm during this period is also a pretty considerable boost. The Warriors after Game 3 is the question mark.
Difficulty: 4/10
Fixtures: Knights (away), Eels (home), Bye, Roosters (away), Sharks (home), Warriors (home), bye, Cowboys (away)
Number of byes: 2
The Bulldogs will play prior to Origin 1 and 2, and have a bye before Origin 3. Their other bye during the Origin period comes in the full round between Game 1 and 2, which doesn't help them in the slightest.
That said, it's highly unlikely the Bulldogs will be decimated by Origin, although off-season recruit Stephen Crichton could be joined by Matt Burton and even Josh Curran if the start of the season sees the blue-and-white turn things right around.
That said, they play the Knights and Roosters without Origin players. With James Tedesco's Origin career likely over, neither of those sides will feel tremendous impacts of Origin, so it could be argued the fixtures there haven't done the Bulldogs much of a favour.
They do play the Cowboys after Game 3 though which is a positive. Tackling the Warriors anywhere in this period is never an ideal scenario though.
Difficulty: 6/10
Fixtures: Eels (away), Broncos (away), Dolphins (home), Bye, Bulldogs (away), Titans (home), Tigers (home), Bye
Number of byes: 2
The Sharks miss the game prior to Origin 2, but have to take on the Eels and Tigers without any Origin players - whether they will actually have any is another question altogether, although most would suggest Nicho Hynes has been unlucky to not play a whole lot more in that arena over the last two years.
The issue for the Sharks of course if he is picked is just how important he is to everything the club do.
That said, the Eels won't be untouched by Origin, and the Tigers could lose Apisai Koroisau.
The Sharks also play the Broncos backing up brigade after Origin 1 and get the Bulldogs after Game 2, while their other games during the period are against the Dolphins (between Game 1 and 2) and the Titans (between Game 2 and 3).
They have the bye to close it out as well in a freshen up before the run home as attention turns back to the regular season. This is certainly one of the easier schedules despite playing prior to two Origin matches.
Difficulty: 4/10
Fixtures: Bye, Rabbitohs (home), Tigers (away), Warriors (home), Bye, Sharks (away), Eels (home), Sea Eagles (away)
Number of byes: 2
The Titans have byes before Game 1 and after Game 2 during the Origin period, and will likely have to play games without Tino Fa'asuamaleaui, as well as possibly AJ Brimson, Moeaki Fotuaika, David Fifita and Beau Fermor.
That means they will be understrength, and being lumped as the only team to play the Warriors prior to an Origin game certainly won't help.
They have the Eels before Game 3 but at home, while they play the Rabbitohs after Game 1 and the Sea Eagles away after Game 3 - two tough games potentially without stars backing up.
The Tigers and Sharks are their other games in the period. It's not the toughest run, but that game against the Warriors blows their difficulty rating out substantially.
Difficulty: 8/10
Fixtures: Bye, Panthers (away), Dragons (home), Rabbitohs (away), Bye, Cowboys (away), Knights (home), Titans (home)
Number of byes: 2
It's tough to know exactly what the Sea Eagles will be missing during Origin. If Tom Trbojevic is fit, then he could well be a walk-up starter. Haumole Olakau'atu will also be in the discussion, while Daly Cherry-Evans is again going to be the captain of Queensland.
That means they certainly miss plenty, and will have to play the South Sydney Rabbitohs before Game 2 and the Newcastle Knights before Game 3 without any Origin players.
Playing the Panthers after Game 1 away from home and the Gold Coast Titans after Game 3 is a fairly mixed bag of results out of the draw as well, while the Dragons in between Game 1 and 2 is a favourable result.
Having to travel to Townsville between Game 2 and 3 though isn't.
Difficulty: 6/10
Fixtures: Bye, Knights (home), Warriors (away), Dolphins (away), Raiders (home), Tigers (away), Bye, Roosters (home)
Number of byes: 2
The Storm have byes before Game 1 and 3, which is certainly a boost for a club that often provides plenty of players to Origin, although, it must be said, that count has been getting smaller in recent years.
That said, they won't be untouched by Origin, so the two byes help.
They play the Dolphins in their only game without Origin players which is a favourable match-up given how tough the Dolphins' schedule during this period is, combined with the fact they will likely have a number of representatives.
That could be balanced out, though by tough games after Origin 1 against the Knights and Origin 2 against the Raiders, while the Roosters could also be a different beast during the Origin period in 2024 if James Tedesco is overlooked.
They also play the Warriors during the Origin period on the road, with a trip to Auckland never favourable at this time of year.
Difficulty: 6/10
Fixtures: Bulldogs (home), Storm (away), Panthers (home), Bye, Eels (home), Raiders (away), Sea Eagles (away), Broncos (home)
Number of byes: 1
The Knights are one of the few teams who only have a single bye during the State of Origin period, and it has left them with undoubtedly one of the tougher schedules. It could come down to whether Kalyn Ponga is picked for Queensland or not, but for argument's sake, let's say he is, and that continuing good early season form has others, namely the Saifiti brothers, in the frame.
They start the Origin period by playing the Bulldogs at home, then have the bye before Game 2 before playing the Sea Eagles before Game 3 - arguably two games you'd want to avoid in those weeks, given the lack of Origin players likely to be selected.
They play the Storm away from home after Game 1, and the Eels at home after Game 2, before playing the Broncos at home after Game 3. The home games will help, but again, they are difficult games. Plenty of that could come down to who is selected and backs up, though.
They won't have any free runs in the games between Origins either, with the Panthers and Raiders on the menu.
No matter which way you slice it, this is a tough run.
Difficulty: 9/10
Fixtures: Bye, Cowboys (away), Storm (home), Titans (away), Broncos (home), Bulldogs (away), Bye, Raiders (away)
Number of byes: 2
Some teams who have only one, or, in the case of the Dolphins, no byes before Origin matches, will be fuming that the Warriors get two. The Warriors had a grand total of zero Origin players in 2023, and it's hard to see that being a fact likely to change in 2024.
From the Warriors point of view, they'd probably also prefer to play in those rounds against teams who are going to be decimated by the Origin campaign.
But they won't, with their only came prior to an Origin coming before Game 2 against the Gold Coast Titans.
They play after all three Origins though, away to the Cowboys after Game 1, home to the Broncos after Game 2 and away to the Raiders after Game 3. They are all matches the Warriors will back themselves to win in that period.
Difficulty: 3/10
Fixtures: Roosters (away), Warriors (home), Raiders (away), Bye, Panthers (away), Sea Eagles (home), Bye, Bulldogs (home)
Number of byes: 2
Objectively, this is a tough draw for the Cowboys during a period where they are often well below full strength providing players to State of Origin.
They do have byes prior to Game 2 and 3 which helps, but a trip away to play the Roosters before Game 1 won't be viewed favourably.
Nor will hosting the Warriors after Game 1, or playing away to the Panthers after Game 2. They host the Bulldogs after Game 3 who could be mostly untouched by Origin too.
The amount of travel involved in getting back to Townsville makes it so tough for the Cowboys players to back up. Add to that the toughness of games involved, and they could well wind up playing a number of games without their Origin players.
Difficulty: 7/10
Fixtures: Sharks (home), Bulldogs (away), Roosters (home), Bye, Knights (away), Rabbitohs (home), Titans (away), Bye
Number of byes: 2
The Eels have to play twice prior to Origins, and could be doing it without a number of their key forwards, including Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Junior Paulo and J'maine Hopgood who no doubt will all be in the mix for State of Origin selection.
Cronulla could be mostly untouched, making the clash before Game 1 a difficult one, with any players backing up then getting a longer break before playing Canterbury on Monday.
A short turnaround into the Roosters game between Origin 1 and 2 won't do Parramatta any favours, nor will a trip to play the Knights after Game 2, or one to play the Titans before Game 3.
They avoid the Warriors during this period, but it's not a straightforward run for the blue and gold.
Difficulty: 6/10
Fixtures: Dragons (home), Sea Eagles (home), Knights (away), Bye, Cowboys (home), Broncos (home), bye, Dolphins (home)
Number of byes: 2
The Panthers will again be one of the sides likely to provide more players to the Origin arena than most, leaving them with plenty to overcome during the eight-week period.
They have been handed byes before Origin 2 and 3 though, which certainly will help their cause, while their only forced game without Origin players comes against the Dragons at home - which is a match up that would be near the top of Penrith's wishlist for that round.
After Origin, with players backing up, they play the Manly Sea Eagles at home, the North Queensland Cowboys at home and the Dolphins at home.
Not having to travel in those three rounds is an enormous boost for Ivan Cleary's side from the foot of the mountains, and while they play the Broncos and Knights in the games between the Origin games, only the Knights is away, meaning Penrith don't travel out of New South Wales for that entire period.
It's about as straightforward as it gets.
Difficulty: 3/10
Fixtures: Bye, Titans (away), Broncos (home), Sea Eagles (home), Bye, Eels (away), Dolphins (away), Tigers (home)
Number of byes: 2
The Rabbitohs kick off the Origin period with a bye, and have their other one after Game 2 of the series, meaning they will be forced to play prior to Game 2 and 3 without any Origin selected players.
And there could be a few - one would imagine all of Latrell Mitchell, Campbell Graham, Cody Walker, Damien Cook, Cameron Murray and Jai Arrow at least could be in the mix. Don't be surprised if Tevita Tatola is in the discussion as well.
That means they will be criminally understrength to take on the Sea Eagles and Dolphins. The Dolphins will likely also be understrength, while Manly could be missing Tom Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans, but as one of the most heavily impacted sides, playing two games prior to Origins will be viewed dimly by Souths.
They play the Titans and Tigers in the games after Origin, which could be argued isn't straightforward either given both of those sides will be (mostly) unimpacted.
Difficulty: 7/10
Fixtures: Panthers (away), Tigers (home), Sea Eagles (away), Bye, Dolphins (home), Roosters (home), Broncos (away), Bye
Number of byes: 2
The Dragons certainly have one of the better draws to carry them through the Origin period. They play before two Origins, but those games are against the likely-to-be-decimated Penrith Panthers and Brisbane Broncos.
Even though both games are away, the Dragons could well find themselves entering both games as favourites if they have a semi-decent start to the season - even a good start to the campaign is unlikely to see anyone other than Ben Hunt dragged into the Origin frame.
How they replace Hunt with their halves issues is anyone's guess, but the Red V certainly have been helped by the draw.
They have the bye before Game 2 and after Game 3, playing the Tigers and Dolphins in the games directly after Origin. Again, the Dolphins may not be at full strength backing up on a short turnaround, while the Tigers are an unknown quantity who could yet play that game without Apisai Koroisau.
It's tough to view this as anything other than the easiest of Origin draws.
Difficulty: 2/10
Fixtures: Cowboys (home), Bye, Eels (away), Bulldogs (home), Tigers (home), Dragons (home), Bye, Storm (away)
Number of byes: 2
The Roosters have two byes during the Origin period, coming after Game 1 and before Game 3.
That means they play without any Origin players - Lindsay Collins being the most likely - prior to Game 1 and 2. Those games will see them tackle the North Queensland Cowboys at home, and the Canterbury Bulldogs, also at home.
The Cowboys are unlikely to be at full strength thanks to Origin, while the Bulldogs are something of an unknown quantity as they continue rebuidling.
Playing the Tigers after Game 2 sets things up fairly easily, while the Storm after Game 3 could go either way, pending on who is selected and rested from both sides.
This is a draw that is cut down the middle for the Roosters. They will need to be good to overcome it, but it's not insurmountable.
Difficulty: 5/10
Fixtures: Raiders (home), Bye, Sharks (away), Storm (home), Dragons (away), Bye, Rabbitohs (home), Panthers (away)
Number of byes: 2
The Dolphins are the NRL's only team who will be forced to play before all three Origin games. That would be tough if you were the Warriors. When you're a Queensland club with plenty of Origin players, it is borderline madness.
Last year both Thomas Gilbert and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow found themselves selected for the Origin arena, and don't be surprised if, as the Dolphins improve, more are pushing for selection this year.
Off-season recruit Thomas Flegler could be viewed as something of a certainty to play, and Felise Kaufusi can't be discounted fro the selection debate for the Maroons either.
Their games during the period are hardly straight forward either. They play the Raiders (who could be close to full strength) before Game 1, the Storm before Game 2, and then the Rabbitohs before Game 3. While Melbourne and South Sydney will likely have representatives, it's hard to see this schedule being anything other than the NRL's toughest during the Origin period.
The byes they do have come after Game 1, and in between Game 2 and 3 in a full round. Their games after Origin with players backing up come against the Dragons and Panthers.
Difficulty: 10/10
Fixtures: Bye, Dragons (away), Titans (home), Raiders (home), Roosters (away), Storm (home), Sharks (away), Rabbitohs (away)
Number of byes: 1
The Tigers are another club to have been dealt the rough end of the draw stick heading into the Origin period with only a single bye scheduled for the period.
That comes prior to Game 1.
The good news for the Tigers is that they are, realistically, unlikely to have many, if any, Origin players. Apisai Koroisau is, without a doubt, their best chance.
But on the chance they do, they will have to play the Raiders and Sharks prior to Game 2 and 3 without their Origin players, and the Roosters and Rabbitohs afterwards.
Difficulty: 8/10