The North Queensland Cowboys might have bombed their opportunity of making the top four, but they did enough to secure a home elimination final, and will now look to put that advantage to use when they clash with the Newcastle Knights on Saturday evening at Queensland Country Bank Stadium.
At one point, the Cowboys had six of their final eight games at home, and two byes remaining while sitting just a handful of points outside the top four.
A handful of horror losses over the closing weeks of the season ensured they wouldn't make the finals, but amongst the logjam that became the NRL ladder, they still did enough to make the finals.
That included a heavy win in the final round over the Canterbury Bulldogs on the road after a win the week before over a criminally understrength Melbourne Storm, and so the men from Townsville enter the finals in strong form.
That said, form has meant little for the Cowboys this year. Todd Payten's side have been all over the place at the best of times, so it does make it difficult to get a read on exactly what they will dish up on Saturday evening.
Home ground advantage means everything for the Cowboys though. Their record in Townsville in finals is impeccable, and so they are virtual automatic favourites on that fact alone.
The Knights, on the other hand, had to wait until the final game of the regular season to book their spot in the top eight.
They do enter the finals in excellent form. It was just a few weeks ago when reports emerged Adam O'Brien had a clause in his contract that said he could be removed as coach if the Knights dropped to 13th or below in the final three weeks of the season.
It doesn't take a genuis to work out the Knights were on track to end up there the way they were playing, so to make the finals is a glowing endorsement of the way Newcastle managed to turn things around.
Their win last Sunday over the Dolphins was sparked by toughness in the middle third and Kalyn Ponga moments of brilliance littered amongst errors, and it's those errors they will need to cut out if they are going to go toe to toe with the Cowboys on Saturday evening away from home.
Taking into account their six-day turnaround and travel, the Knights also must surely know they can't afford to turn the ball over regularly and put themselves under the pump.
Team news
North Queensland Cowboys
1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Viliami Vailea 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Jake Clifford 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. Heilum Luki 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter
Interchange: 14. Sam McIntyre 15. Harrison Edwards 16. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 17. Griffin Neame
Reserves: 18. Jaxon Purdue 20. Thomas Mikaele
The Cowboys welcome back Jordan McLean, with Sam McIntyre back to the bench and Thomas Mikaele being cut from the 17.
No late changes, so Payten's side are well and truly settled heading into this home elimination final.
Newcastle Knights
1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Fletcher Sharpe 3. Dane Gagai 12. Dylan Lucas 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Jack Cogger 7. Phoenix Crossland 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 22. Kai Pearce-Paul 13. Adam Elliott
Interchange: 14. Tyson Gamble 15. Mathew Croker 16. Jack Hetherington 17. Brodie Jones
Reserves: 18. Thomas Cant 19. Will Pryce
A huge blow for the Knights during the week, with confirmation Bradman Best will miss the game after suffering yet another hamstring injury. The star centre has missed plenty of game time this year with the injury though, so the Knights are well ready to deal with it.
Kai Pearce-Paul is fit to return in what is a major boost for the side, with the Englishman going straight into the starting side, and moving Dylan Lucas into the centres.
History
Overall record: Played 45, Cowboys 23, Knights 22
Last ten matches: Cowboys 7, Knights 3
Record at venue: Played 5, Cowboys 5, Knights 0
Record in finals: Never played
This is the first final between th two sides, with the Cowboys and Knights never having met at the pointy end of the season.
They have a relatively even overall head-to-head record, but it's in Townsville where Newcastle struggle. They have never won a game at this new stadium, and all up, have won just 7 of 24 against the Cowboys in the city.
They got as close as they ever have earlier this year though, forcing the Cowboys to golden point before being sunk.
Last meeting: Round 2, 2024, Cowboys 21 defeat Knights 20 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium (golden point).
Keys to the game
Kalyn Ponga's role for the Knights
The Knights last weekend basically seemed to have a game plan which was "give the ball to Kalyn and see what happens."
It might have worked against the Dolphins at home, but the finals on the road in Townsville are a different beast. Patience will be key, breaking down the Cowboys will be key, and having more than Plan A will be critical.
Ponga can be plan A, and he is that good it could come off, but the Knights need others to stand up. They need the forward pack to do what they have done all year and lead the way in post-contact yardage, they need to throw the ball around and stretch the Knights' defence, and they need to have players like Phoenix Crossland and Jack Cogger play out of their skin.
There is no doubt Ponga is the key, but he can't be the be all and end all.
runs with the ball during the round 20 NRL match between Newcastle Knights and Wests Tigers at McDonald Jones Stadium on July 14, 2023 in Newcastle, Australia. (Photo by Scott Gardiner/Getty Images)
Reece Robson's service at dummy half
Reece Robson has fast become one of the best dummy halves in the competition, and undoubtedly one of the most important players at the Cowboys.
The New South Wales Blues State of Origin player is excellent at both ends of the park, and needs to be so again against the Knights.
His defence in the middle will be critical to stopping and slowing down Kalyn Ponga, but more than that, his attack, running game around tired markers and craftiness in combination with Tom Dearden and Scott Drinkwater will determine exactly how many points the Cowboys are able to score.
He is critical to the Cowboys' chances here.
Cowboys' halves combination
Todd Payten made the enormous decision a couple of weeks ago to drop Chad Townsend and play Jake Clifford.
It made sense on multiple fronts given Townsend is off to the Roosters next year and had been out of form.
But the results have been something else.
The Cowboys attack has gone through the gears ever since Clifford was called into the side. A different player now to what he was in his first NRL stint, this will be as big as it has ever been for Clifford, while Dearden has Origin experience under his belt.
The question is how well will they combine given they have only had a handful of games together.
Newcastle's post-contact metre-eating
The Knights are the best in the competition - stasticially speaking - at post-contact yardage.
It's one of those stats that often gets overlooked as to how important it is, and yet, it is everything.
It puts a team on the front foot, a defensive opposition on the back foot, and in the Knights' case, frees up time and space for both their kicking game, and the work of Kalyn Ponga.
If the Knights can stick to where they have been this season, they are a real chance to do some damage here. The effort, as always, needs to be led by Adam Elliott, Leo Thompson and Daniel Saifiti.
Prediction
I won't go as far as to say this will be one-way traffic, but the Knights are enormously lucky to be in the finals, and simply have too much reliance on Kalyn Ponga to go anywhere.
That was fairly clear in their win over the Dolphins last weekend.
The Cowboys have been inconsistent, but they should be spurred on by a sold out home crowd to get the job done here and book a semi-final with either Cronulla or Melbourne.
Cowboys by 12.
