The Sydney Roosters will be up against it when they travel to Victoria for the first preliminary final to take on the Melbourne Storm.
The Roosters have a horror recent record against Melbourne, and it's something they will have to overcome if they are going to keep their season alive.
Realistically, the two preliminary finals look like one-sided affairs. The top two teams this season, both with week offs, come into their games this weekend as red-hot favourites.
But the Roosters have attacked strongly all year and will head to Melbourne looking to play a positive brand of rugby league, fancying themselves of being a chance at an upset.
Here is a full betting and odds preview ahead of the game.
All odds from PointsBet, correct at 11pm, Thursday, September 26.
Think. Is this a bet you really want to place?
Match winner
The Storm have an enormous edge in the recent head-to-head between these sides, and there is no reason to suggest that won't be the continuing trend here.
Melbourne are almost unbackable favourites, paying just $1.28 to take out the victory over Trent Robinson's side.
Given the Roosters' struggles against the top two sides, it's maybe no surprise they come into the game as rank $3.65 outsiders.
The line and margin
Interestingly, the Storm's last five wins against the Roosters have seen three in the 13+ bracket - including their last meeting in July - and the other two by six points or less.
That all said, you can get plenty of value for the Storm to win between 1 and 12 points at $3.20, but not so much if you think they'll run away with it - they pay just $2.10 for a win by 13 points or more.
If you're on the Roosters, then it's $4.80 for a win between 1 and 12 points, and $9.50 for a win beyond that.
First and any-time try-scorers
Some have made the comment the Roosters will be lucky to score at all in this game, so it's no surprise the Storm dominate the try-scoring markets.
Will Warbrick ($8) and Xavier Coates ($8.50) are the two shortest-priced players to go over for the first try, followed in the market by Melbourne fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen and Roosters' winger Daniel Tupou at $13.
In the any-time try-scorer market, you could find value in the likes of Eliesa Katoa, who is paying $2.75 and has scored four tries in his last five games, or Joseph Suaalii, who has been cold recently, but sits at $4.
Others worth keeping an eye on are Daniel Tupou ($2.30), Harry Grant ($3), Jahrome Hughes ($3), Angus Crichton ($4) and Nelson Aofa-Solomona ($6).
Total points
Given both of these sides know their way to the try line, it's not hard to see why the total points have been set at 45.5, with the market paying $1.90 either way.
We think there could be plenty of points in this one.
