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How every NRL team will be impacted by State of Origin

The impacts of the Origin window are larger than they have been for years.

Published by
Scott Pryde

With 17 teams, byes every week and a season where more games need to be played, the impacts of State of Origin will be as big as they have been in 2023 since prior to the Gold Coast Titans joining the competition.

In previous years, every team would play only one game prior to a State of Origin game and without stars.

That has gone out the back window in 2023 though, with no week off before Origin 2, and more than half of the competition playing prior to each Origin game.

The Origin period stretches from Round 13 to Round 20 as follows:

  • Round 13: Before Origin 1 - Origin players not allowed to play.
  • Round 14: After Origin 1 - Origin players backing up.
  • Round 15: Normal round.
  • Round 16: Before Origin 2 - Origin players not allowed to play.
  • Round 17: After Origin 2 - Origin players backing up.
  • Round 18: Normal round.
  • Round 19: Before Origin 3 - Origin players not allowed to play.
  • Round 20: After Origin 3 - Origin players backing up.

Following the announcement of both squads on Monday morning, here is how your team will be impacted by the State of Origin window.

NSW Blues Game 1 squad
QLD Maroons Game 1 squad

Note: This article assumes squads would remain the same across the Origin series.

Penrith Panthers

Current ladder position: 1st, 16 points, + 139
Players selected: Nathan Cleary, Jarome Luai Brian To'o, Isaah Yeo
Origin period fixtures: Round 13: Bye, Round 14: vs Dragons (h), Round 15: vs Roosters (a), Round 16: vs Cowboys (a), Round 17: vs Knights (h), Round 18: vs Storm (a), Round 19: Bye, Round 20: vs Dolphins (a)

As predicted, the Panthers have four Origin representatives for the series opener, with Stephen Crichton missing out on a jersey in Brad Fittler's New South Wales side.

They lose half of their spin with Cleary and Luai out, while lock forward Yeo is also instrumental. To'o is the 'easiest' of the quartet to replace, but still difficult, particularly given Taylan May is out for the year.

However, the Panthers benefit from one of the easiest Origin draws in the competition.

They have a bye prior to Origin 1 and Origin 3, meaning they will only be forced to play a single game without their Origin stars - that being Round 16 away against the Cowboys.

They do back up from all three Origins, but have a Sunday night clash against the Dragons after Game 1, giving as much recovery time as possible. They then play the struggling Knights at home on Saturday evening after Game 2 and have a Sunday game against the Dolphins after Game 3. It's conceivable Penrith's Origin players may only miss one or two games.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

Current ladder position: 2nd, 16 points, + 94
Players selected: Latrell Mitchell, Cameron Murray, Campbell Graham (18th man)
Origin period fixtures: Round 13: vs Raiders (h), Round 14: vs Titans (a), Round 15: vs Dragons (a), Round 16: Bye, Round 17: vs Cowboys (h), Round 18: vs Warriors (a), Round 19: vs Bulldogs (h), Round 20: Bye

The Rabbitohs will be forced to play at least twice without Latrell Mitchell and Cameron Murray (and possibly Campbell Graham), with a Round 13 clash against the Raiders, and a Round 19 match against the Bulldogs. Both of those games are at home.

South Sydney plays the Titans on the road in a Saturday night encounter after Game 1 that could see stars rested, but a Sunday afternoon clash at home against the Cowboys after Game 2 could be enough time for representative players to back up.

The Rabbitohs have the bye after Game 3, allowing them to reset for the charge towards September.

Cronulla Sharks

Current ladder position: 3rd, 16 points, + 88
Players selected: Nicho Hynes
Origin period fixtures: Round 13: Bye, Round 14: vs Broncos (h), Round 15: vs Storm (a), Round 16: vs Bulldogs (h), Round 17: Bye, Round 18: vs Dragons (h), Round 19: vs Tigers (a), Round 20: vs Warriors (a)

The Sharks only have one player selected for the Origin series, although Hynes is their most important.

Craig Fitzgibbon's side will be forced to play at least two games without Hynes - against the Bulldogs in Round 16 prior to Game 2, and the Tigers prior to Game 3. Both of these clashes seem winnable, even without last year's Dally M winner.

The Sharks have the bye before Game 1, but their games after Origin aren't straightforward, with a clash against the Broncos in Round 14 on Saturday evening and a trip to Auckland on the Sunday after Origin 3.

They have the bye after Origin 2.

Brisbane Broncos

Current ladder position: 4th, 16 points, + 77
Players selected: Reece Walsh, Selwyn Cobbo, Thomas Flegler, Patrick Carrigan, Payne Haas
Origin period fixtures: Round 13: vs Warriors (a), Round 14: vs Sharks (a), Round 15: vs Knights (h), Round 16: Bye, Round 17: vs Titans (h), Round 18: vs Dolphins (h), Round 19: Bye, Round 20: vs Bulldogs (a)

The Broncos have five players in squads for Origin 1, and alarmingly, will lose their entire middle third rotation, combined with fullback Reece Walsh and winger Selwyn Cobbo.

They start things off with a difficult trip across the Tasman too, taking on a Warriors side renowned for their fearsome forwards. They then will be sweating on players backing up to tackle the Sharks on Saturday after Game 1.

Game 2 sees a bye beforehand, and the Titans on Sunday afternoon afterwards, which, without travel, should be enough time for players to back up.

The Broncos have the bye before Game 3, before travelling to Sydney after Game 3 to play the Bulldogs at Belmore on Saturday afternoon - again, a sketchy turnaround time for Origin players.

Melbourne Storm

Current ladder position: 5th, 16 points, + 24
Players selected: Cameron Munster, Harry Grant, Christian Welch (19th man only)
Origin period fixtures: Round 13: vs Bye, Round 14: Cowboys (a) vs, Round 15: vs Sharks (h), Round 16: vs Tigers (a), Round 17: vs Sea Eagles (h), Round 18: vs Panthers (h), Round 19: vs Bye, Round 20: vs Roosters (a)

The Storm have the bye before Origin 1 and 3, meaning they will only need to hit the park once without Cameron Munster and Harry Grant - that comes in Round 16 against the Wests Tigers.

However, the club do face a tricky run of games with players backing up from Origin.

They play the Cowboys in Townsville on Sunday afternoon after Game 1, the Sea Eagles at home on Saturday after Game 2, and the Roosters away on Saturday after Game 3. There is no guarantee of Munster or Grant backing up for any of those games, particularly given Craig Bellamy's usual approach to resting players after the interstate battle.

The Dolphins

Current ladder position: 6th, 14 points, + 1
Players selected: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Tom Gilbert
Origin period fixtures: Round 13: vs Dragons (h), Round 14: vs Warriors (a), Round 15: vs Sea Eagles (a), Round 16: Bye, Round 17: vs Eels (h - Sunshine Coast), Round 18: vs Broncos (a), Round 19: vs Titans (a), Round 20: vs Panthers (h)

The Dolphins are the highest team on the ladder with only a single bye between Round 13 and 20, so could easily claim they have copped the rough end of the stick.

They play prior to both Origin 1 and 3, with games against the Dragons in Redcliffe, and away to the Titans respectively where they will be without Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Tom Gilbert.

The duo will then attempt to back up on three occasions - away against the Warriors on a Saturday which seems unlikely, on the Sunshine Coast against the Eels on a Saturday and at home against the Panthers on a Sunday.

A tough schedule for the Dolphins as they are hit by another test in their first NRL season.

New Zealand Warriors

Current ladder position: 7th, 14 points, -6
Players selected: None
Origin period fixtures: Round 13: vs Broncos (h), Round 14: vs Dolphins (h), Round 15: vs Raiders (a), Round 16: Bye, Round 17: vs Dragons (a), Round 18: vs Rabbitohs (h), Round 19: vs Eels (a), Round 20: vs Sharks (h)

The Warriors come into the Origin period with no selections and in as good of a position as they have been for years. A real opportunity is staring them in the face.

They only have one bye over the Origin period and will look to take full effect of that, with games in the lead-up to Origin 1 against the Broncos at home and before Origin 3 against the Eels.

They have the bye heading into Origin 2 but will play the Dolphins, Dragons and Sharks all with players backing up from Origin.

Canberra Raiders

Current ladder position: 8th, 14 points, -57
Players selected: Hudson Young
Origin period fixtures: Round 13: vs Rabbitohs (a), Round 14: vs Tigers (a), Round 15: vs Warriors (h), Round 16: vs Bye, Round 17: vs Roosters (a), Round 18: vs Titans (h), Round 19: vs Dragons (a), Round 20: Bye

The twin retirements from Josh Papalii and Jack Wighton in recent times have left the Raiders with only one Origin representative in Hudson Young, and a favourable draw could allow Ricky Stuart's side to climb well into the top eight, having won five of their last six before Game 1.

The Raiders kick off the Origin window with a clash on the road against the Rabbitohs, who are hamstrung by some big outs, before playing the Tigers backing up from Game 1 just 48 hours later.

They miss the game before Origin 2, but play the Roosters afterwards in the final game of the round, leaving Young a fair chance of backing up.

They then take on the Dragons without Ben Hunt before Origin 3 in Wollongong, before having a bye to conclude the Origin window and set their sights on September.

Manly Sea Eagles

Current ladder position: 9th, 13 points, -8
Players selected: Daly Cherry-Evans, Tom Trbojevic
Origin period fixtures: Round 13: vs Knights (a), Round 14: Bye, Round 15: vs Dolphins (h), Round 16: vs Eels (a), Round 17: vs Storm (a), Round 18: vs Roosters (h), Round 19: Bye, Round 20: vs Cowboys (h)

The Sea Eagles have often struggled without Tom Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans and will be put to task over the Origin period, playing prior to Origin and 1 and 3.

They take on the Knights and Eels - both away - but with both of those sides struggling, it presents a pair of winnable games even without their star spine members.

They have the bye after Origin 1 but will back up from Origin 2 and 3 against the Storm away and Cowboys at home respectively with both to be played on Saturday evening.

Cherry-Evans may back up, but given Trbojevic's history with injury, he is almost no chance of playing either of those crunch games.

Gold Coast Titans

Current ladder position: 10th, 12 points, - 31
Players selected: Tino Fa'asuamaleaui, David Fifita
Origin period fixtures: Round 13: vs Bye, Round 14: vs Rabbitohs (h), Round 15: vs Tigers (h), Round 16: Bye, Round 17: vs Broncos (a), Round 18: vs Raiders (a), Round 19: vs Dolphins (h), Round 20: vs Eels (a)

The Titans will be short in the forwards throughout the Origin period, with both Tino Fa'asuamaleaui and David Fifita selected.

They do enjoy a bye before Origin 1 and 3, playing the Dolphins - who also have players missing - before Origin 3.

That, however, means the Titans have to back up from all three Origin games with difficult games against the Rabbitohs (Saturday night), Broncos (Sunday afternoon) and Eels (Sunday evening). Both players would be a chance to back up for at least the final two of those games given the lack of travel from either game and long as possible turnaround time.

Sydney Roosters

Current ladder position: 11th, 12 points, -67
Players selected: James Tedesco, Lindsay Collins
Origin period fixtures: Round 13: Bye, Round 14: vs Bulldogs (h - Gosford), Round 15: vs Panthers (h), Round 16: vs Knights (a), Round 17: vs Raiders (h), Round 18: vs Sea Eagles (a), Round 19: Bye, Round 20: vs Storm (h)

The Roosters kick off the Origin period with a much-needed bye, but given their injury and suspension issues, it'll do little to ease the issues at the club.

James Tedesco and Lindsay Collins are both set to play Origin, and a Sunday afternoon game against the Bulldogs following Game 1 will give the duo the best chance of backing up.

They play the Knights prior to Game 2 and have a bye prior to Game 3, but have to play the Raiders on a Sunday evening and the Storm on a Saturday evening in a pair of tricky games potentially without the duo backing up.

Newcastle Knights

Current ladder position: 12th, 11 points, -36
Players selected: Tyson Frizell
Origin period fixtures: Round 13: vs Sea Eagles (h), Round 14: Bye, Round 15: vs Broncos (a), Round 16: vs Roosters (h), Round 17: vs Panthers (a), Round 18: vs Bulldogs (a), Round 19: vs bye, Round 20: vs Tigers (h)

The Knights have been left relatively unaffected by Origin after Kalyn Ponga was overlooked for Reece Walsh - that's not to say he won't be included later in the series of course, but right now, the Knights can plan full steam ahead.

They play without Tyson Frizell in Round 13 against the Knights before having the bye, with their other Origin period being before Game 3.

They face a tricky test against the Roosters prior to Game 2, and then could get lucky if the Panthers rest stars after Game 2. They close the Origin period by playing the Tigers after Game 3, albeit on 48 hours of recovery.

Parramatta Eels

Current ladder position: 13th, 10 points, + 44
Players selected: Junior Paulo
Origin period fixtures: Round 13: vs Cowboys (h), Round 14: Bye, Round 15: vs Bulldogs (a), Round 16: vs Sea Eagles (h), Round 17: vs Dolphins (a - Sunshine Coast), Round 18: vs Bye, Round 19: vs Warriors (h), Round 20: vs Titans (h)

The Eels have paid for their average start to the season without only a single representative making the Origin cut in Junior Paulo. Given Reagan Campbell-Gillard is currently out injured though, it's a big blow for the men in blue and gold.

They will take on the Cowboys, Sea Eagles and Warriors prior to the three Origin games, being forced to play on all three occasions without Paulo and any other players who might make the cut.

They do have a pair of byes, but one is in a full round between Games 2 and 3, with the other in Round 14 after Game 1.

Their other two games backing up are away to the Dolphins on the Sunshine Coast (Saturday afternoon) after Game 2, and at home against the Titans in the final game of Round 20.

North Queensland Cowboys

Current ladder position: 14th, 10 points, - 82
Players selected: Valentine Holmes, Murray Taulagi, Reuben Cotter, Tom Dearden (18th man)
Origin period fixtures: Round 13: vs Eels (a), Round 14: vs Storm (h), Round 15: Bye, Round 16: vs Panthers (h), Round 17: vs Rabbitohs (a), Round 18: vs Tigers (h), Round 19: Bye, Round 20: vs Sea Eagles (a)

The Cowboys might be buried at the wrong end of the table, but that hasn't stopped a number of Origin selections - Valentine Holmes, Murray Taulagi and Reuben Cotter are all in Queensland's side, while Tom Dearden is the 18th man.

They have been done next to no favours by the draw either, with one of their two Origin periods coming in a full round when they could have backed up.

They kick off the Origin period with a difficult trip to play the Eels, before needing players to back up against the Storm at home. Origin 2 brings a clash against the Panthers without Origin players, and then players need to move to Sydney to play against the Rabbitohs in backing up.

The bye before Origin 3 will mean they avoid being forced to play without Holmes, Taulagi and Dearden again, but whether they back up on Saturday evening in Round 20 against the Sea Eagles is another question.

Canterbury Bulldogs

Current ladder position: 15th, 10 points, -93
Players selected: Josh Addo-Carr, Tevita Pangai Junior
Origin period fixtures: Round 13: Bye, Round 14: vs Roosters (a), Round 15: vs Eels (h), Round 16: vs Sharks (a), Round 17: vs Bye, Round 18: vs Knights (h), Round 19: vs Rabbitohs (a), Round 20: vs Broncos (h)

The Bulldogs have a bye prior to Origin 1 and then will sit out the round after Origin 2 in a draw which has been relatively kind to the club in the grand scheme of things.

They will be forced to play without Origin players prior to Game 2 (Sharks) and Game 3 (Rabbitohs), while they back up against the Roosters after Game 1 on Sunday afternoon and the Broncos at home on Saturday afternoon after Game 3.

The Roosters and Broncos are both difficult sides, but will both have questions about players backing up themselves, while Cronulla and the Rabbitohs will be missing star troops.

Wests Tigers

Current ladder position: 16th, 8 points, - 42
Players selected: Apisai Koroisau
Origin period fixtures: Round 13: Bye, Round 14: vs Raiders (h), Round 15: vs Titans (a), Round 16: vs Storm (h), Round 17: Bye, Round 18: vs Cowboys (a), Round 19: vs Sharks (h), Round 20: vs Knights (a)

The Tigers will head into the Origin period knowing exactly how important Apisai Koroisau has been and would be if they were to make a charge for the finals - something that seems realistic now having not been in the picture just a month ago.

The club's form has turned a corner, but they could potentially have to play four games without Koroisau, and almost certainly at least two, coming against the Storm and Sharks before Game 2 and 3 respectively in a pair of tough battles.

They have the bye before Origin 1, and play the Raiders after it, while they will back up from Origin 3 with a Friday night game against the Knights, making it unlikely Koroisau will be available if he can hold his spot in the Origin side - particularly playing big minutes.

St George Illawarra Dragons

Current ladder position: 17th, 8 points, - 45
Players selected: Ben Hunt
Origin period fixtures: Round 13: vs Dolphins (a), Round 14: vs Panthers (a), Round 15: vs Rabbitohs (h), Round 16: Bye, Round 17: vs Warriors (h), Round 18: vs Sharks (a), Round 19: vs Raiders (h), Round 20: Bye

The Dragons will take on the Dolphins before Origin 1, and the Raiders before Origin 3 in the two games they will be forced to play without Ben Hunt.

Given the Dragons' record without Hunt on the park, it'll be a tricky period to negotiate for the Red V, who also have to play the Warriors after Origin 2 on just 48 hours of recovery from Game 2.

They also play the Panthers after Game 1, although that could work in their favour if Penrith doesn't back up stars on Sunday evening. The Dragons have the bye after Game 3, and a handful of tough games in between Origins with the Rabbitohs and Sharks on the menu.

Published by
Scott Pryde