Despite claims he would have been fit to return last weekend if the Penrith Panthers were forced to play in a semi-final, medical experts have deemed Jarome Luai's return in Friday's preliminary final against the Melbourne Storm as "high risk."
Luai injured his shoulder in Round 26, with a dislocation confirmed in the aftermath.
According to Channel 9, he would have been fit to play last weekend, although the extra week certainly helped.
Given it was on the minor end of the scale and the shoulder was relocated quickly, he was able to avoid surgery, and instead the New South Wales Blues five-eighth has been in constant, round the clock treatment and recovery in an attempt to ensure the shoulder would be right to go for the preliminary final and a potential grand final afterwards.
Shoulder dislocations and other assorted injuries without surgery are often a waiting game, with players needing to spend as much time sidelined as possible to allow the injury to strengthen.
The decision to rush Luai back into the side presents a major risk for Penrith given the fact the club have Jack Cogger in the wings. The Newcastle Knights' bound fill in has done a tremendous job replacing both Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai at various points this season.
According to News Corp though, three leading sports doctors - Nathan Gibbs, Michael Johnson and Brian Seeney - have expressed concern over Luai playing.
They believe he must avoid contact for the entire 80 minutes to avoid re-injuriing the shoulder - any hard or heavy contact will likely see the shoulder pop back out.
That would be a major blow for the Panthers, although Ivan Cleary seems to be well aware of that fact with Jack Cogger named on the interchange bench in the number 14 jumper for the clash against the men in purple.
"He will run onto the field, no problem, but to last the game without re-injury will be unlikely unless he doesn't do any contact," Gibbs told the publication.
โAny solid contact to the shoulder or arm will re-injure it so the only way to avoid re-injury is to avoid contact which could make him a liability, and obviously he will be targeted in defence.
โThe issue isn't that it won't settle down but rather that bony and cartilage rim injuries don't repair without surgery so the risk of recurrent instability is very high in a contact sport like NRL.
โThe rim injuries never heal well without surgery. I'm sure he is booked for surgery already in the off season.โ
It means Penrith will attempt to protect Luai at all costs, but that will be less than straightforward with Melbourne's monster pack of forwards led by Kiwi wrecking ball Nelson Asofa-Solomona likely to target Luai in defence all night long.
It also means Luai's main strength - his running game - is unlikely to see much action given he will be attempting to protect the shoulder.
That will put extra pressure on Nathan Cleary, who played one of the best games of his career in a qualifying final win over the New Zealand Warriors a fortnight ago.
Luai going into this game with a likely under utilised role isn't out of the realms of what has happened previously though.
Cooper Cronk famously played the 2018 grand final against the Storm with a 15 centimetre fracture in his shoulder. Despite the belief there would be no chance of him playing, he stepped onto the field to guide his team around, taking no runs, kicking for just 69 metres and making only nine tackles.
The Roosters won that grand final 21 points to 6.
Luai playing the same role though seems unlikely given his impact is far more consequentual, instead of simply directing traffic as the experienced Cronk did.
Penrith's preliminary final kicks off at 7:50pm (AEST) on Friday evening.
