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Damned it they do, gone if they don’t: Why Kalyn Ponga the NRL’s ultimate boom or bust player

Are Newcastle placing all their eggs in one basket?

Published by
Dan Nichols

As I found out over the past 48 hours, there are few more polarising players in the NRL than Newcastle superstar Kalyn Ponga.

Fans of the Knights either seen to love him or loathe him. There isn't much in between.

As for the wider NRL community? There seems to be an even split of fans who would move heaven and earth to bring him to their side, and fans who believe he is both over hyped and overpaid.

I'm not here to argue about Ponga's credentials ... he is an out and out superstar of the game and I'd say the most important player in the competition when it comes to his teams success.

Not necessarily the best player in the competition, but absolutely the most important.

No Ponga, no Newcastle.

That fact is what I am here to discuss.

Newcastle are in all on their star fullback. Moreso than other other club in the competition is in on one of their players.

NEWCASTLE, AUSTRALIA - JULY 14: Kalyn Ponga of the Knights
runs with the ball during the round 20 NRL match between Newcastle Knights and Wests Tigers at McDonald Jones Stadium on July 14, 2023 in Newcastle, Australia. (Photo by Scott Gardiner/Getty Images)

For good reason too.

The current Dally M medalist dragged his struggling side from the NRL wilderness to the second week of the Finals in 2023, almost entirely on his own back.

Star wingers Dominic Young and Greg Marzhew more than played their part, but only once Ponga returned from injury and took charge of literally everything.

Ponga's form was such that he won a Dally M over a 10 week stretch. He polled almost perfectly along his team's nine game win streak to end the regular season.

To put it bluntly, if Ponga hadn't made a late return, the Knights not only don't play Finals footy but they finish 14th, at best.

In 2023 he was worth every bit of his reported $1.4 million contract. This despite missing weeks and weeks of football due to injury and concussion.

Every team knows the key to beating the Knights it to stop Ponga. Easier said than done as it took the mighty Warriors to end the Knights run and 2023 season.

That said, there is one glaring issue with the Ponga or bust game-plan employed by Adam O'Brien in the Hunter. Stop Ponga, stop Newcastle.

Or, if Ponga is missing through injury or suspension, the Knights are a shell of their otherwise selves.

That's not to say they flat chat can't win without him, but the stats don't lie.

Unfortunately in 2024, the Kalyn Ponga show has been on, but it has often been delayed or showing re-runs. His form has been good, but unless its great, the Knights struggle.

Right now - ahead of Sunday afternoon's game against the Gold Coast Titans - the Knights sit in 11th spot, a win and points differential outside of the finals spots.

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They might win their two remaining games but if results don't go their way, they're off to Bali.

Ponga's been good this year. 13 games, one try, seven try assists, 13 line breaks. That's an ok return.

I don't think it's a $1.4 million dollar a season return, but at a point other players need to chip in.

That is where the biggest issue sits.

Ponga's enormous salary is worth every cent, but it leaves the Knights struggling elsewhere.

It's the penultimate round of the NRL regular season and we still don't know who the Knights preferred halves pairing is. If they have one.

The Knights are reportedly actively shopping their hooker, and former club captain, in Jayden Brailey.

So as it sits, they have a $1.4 million dollar fullback whilst not sold on the other 75 per cent of their spine.

Representative prop, albeit a while back now, Daniel Saifiti is also reportedly moving on at the end of the season.

Newcastle's salary cap is not in a good spot. They're pushing the limit while relying on other teams to slip up to make Finals.

That suggests to me that their current set up isn't working.

It took Ponga producing a near unprecedented run of form in 2023 just to scrape into seventh spot. They won in Round One of the Finals before being sent packing to the tune of 40 points to 10.

That was with Ponga in Dally M medal winning form.

Blaming Ponga is easy, and fun too, but it's lazy and absolutely not of his own doing.

Ponga's $1.4 million contract is massive but it's not like it engulfs 50% of the cap. I believe it takes up too much space but given his importance, not by much.

There are constant links to the Roosters. The second Tedesco announces his retirement plans, I guarantee a flood of articles hit the news cycle saying Ponga is en route to Bondi.

Imagine if Ponga, a player who has reportedly has his head turned a number of times already, does walk into head office and demand a one way ticket to Sydney.

Or if Ponga suffers another injury and sits out the majority of a season.

The Knights would be dead to rights.

Or on the flip side, Ponga stays fit in 2025, plays every game (withdrawing from Origin to do so) and wins another Dally M. The Knights probably finish anywhere from fourth to sixth and are set up for a title charge.

Those are two extremes but those are two very real scenarios when you're living in the boom or bust game plan employed by the Knights.

Hopefully moving Saifiti, Brailey and co on balances the books and they can finally provide their superstar custodian with some much needed assistance.

Published by
Dan Nichols