The Canterbury Bulldogs will aim to stop their downward slide when they take to the field in finals football for the first time in eight years against the Manly Sea Eagles on Sunday afternoon, with the loser done for 2024.
Elimination finals are a special type of football - to make the top eight and be finished in Week 1 is not a plight want to be experienced by any team.
But for the Bulldogs, you could argue this is as important a game as the club has played since their last trip to the grand final.
Finally back in the mix as a competitive rugby league outfit, the Bulldogs have built their season on defence, and the fans have loved it.
Homebush will have a monstrous crowd on Sunday afternoon despite the anticipated cold snap hitting Sydney, and they will be left sweating on their team finding the gear that they have lost over the last fortnight.
While Canterbury's season has been built on defence, it has fallen apart in the last fortnight. They come into the finals having leaked over 40 points against the North Queensland Cowboys last weekend, and maybe more alarmingly, having let in plenty the week before against the Manly Sea Eagles.
We will talk about that game further on in this preview, but the fact of the matter is the Bulldogs enter the finals down on confidence, and potentially down on energy. It has simply looked a bridge too far for Cameron Ciraldo's side who have surpassed all expectations this year, despite being widely ridiculed for their pre-season recruitment strategy.
But that's not to say they come into Sunday afternoon's game as the rank outsiders, because the Sea Eagles themselves have been down on consistency and overly reliant on a few key individuals.
They enter the finals off a loss to the Cronulla Sharks last weekend where they simply weren't good enough, but then, they went into that game - even at home - without the services of Tom Trbojevic.
He returns from injury for their knockout clash on Sunday afternoon, and there is absolutely no doubt in anyone's mind that he will be the key cog in Manly's attacking system.
And if they are to win, it's attack which is going to do it, given Canterbury will look to win through their defence. Trbojevic is joined by Daly Cherry-Evans as the main man, with the duo both needing a big game for Manly to keep their season alive after finishing seventh.
Team news
Canterbury Bulldogs
1. Connor Tracey 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Jeral Skelton 6. Matt Burton 7. Toby Sexton 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Samuel Hughes 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Jaeman Salmon
Interchange: 14. Bailey Hayward 15. Kurtis Morrin 16. Harry Hayes 17. Josh Curran
Reserves: 19. Blake Taaffe 20. Lipoi Hopoi
The Bulldogs' form in recent weeks could partially be explained by a number of injuries, and they will welcome back Bronson Xerri, Jeral Skelton and Matt Burton for Sunday afternoon's clash.
That moves Drew Hutchison, Eli Clark and Jonathan Sua out of the side, while Jacob kiraz also shifts back from the centre to the wing.
Skelton's recall only likely happened because Josh Addo-Carr is out after standing himself down following mid-week controversy that could well have upset Canterbury's preparation for their first final in eight years.
Manly Sea Eagles
1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Tommy Talau 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Lehi Hopoate 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Matthew Lodge 11. Haumole Olakau'atu 12. Karl Lawton 13. Jake Trbojevic
Interchange: 14. Ben Trbojevic 15. Josh Aloiai 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Nathan Brown
Reserves: 18. Clayton Faulalo 20. Toafofoa Sipley
Like the Bulldogs, Manly welcome back a key figure for this game, with Tom Trbojevic returning from injury.
His shoulder injury was expected to leave him out for longer, and it's unclear whether he has been rushed back, or whether he is truly ready for Sunday's clash.
His return sees Tolutau Koula shift from the back to the centres, with Tommy Talau moving back out to the wing and Clayton Faulalo - who was one of Manly's best in their last start loss to Cronulla - missing out.
History
Overall record: Played 138, Sea Eagles 74, Bulldogs 59, drawn 5
Last ten matches: Sea Eagles 9, Bulldogs 1
Record at venue: Played 18, Bulldogs 9, Sea Eagles 9
Record in finals: Played 5, Bulldogs 4, Sea Eagles 1
The Sea Eagles do hold the long-term edge over the Bulldogs, having won 74 of the 138 matches played between the two sides.
Their recent history is also strong, having won nine of the last ten, although it has to be mentioned there are very few teams the Bulldogs have a positive record against in recent times.
Maybe the more critical historical records are that the two teams are locked across 18 games at Homebush, and that the Bulldogs have won four of five finals played between the two sides dating back to the mid-1970s.
That all said, Manly have the wood over the Bulldogs this year, having beaten the blue and white by 12 points in a clash at Homebush just a fortnight ago. It was that game where the wheels began to fall off for Canterbury defensively.
Last meeting: Round 26, 2024, Bulldogs 22 defeated by Sea Eagles 34 at Accor Stadium, Homebush
Keys to the game
Can Canterbury turn their top eight record around?
Much has been made of the Bulldogs' exceptional defence this year, and the way they have managed to hang in games on the back of it.
That's not to say their attack has been awful, and particularly since Toby Sexton was brought into the side, it has been quite strong.
But that doesn't mean they have managed to beat everyone.
They have recorded just a handful of wins against top eight opposition all year. They came against the Sydney Roosters when Dominic Young was sent off 25 minutes in, against the Cronulla Sharks in golden point, and against the Newcastle Knights.
That's not to say they have been blown out often (as they have been the last two weeks), but being competitive isn't enough to extend your season in the finals, and they are going to have to find a way to play against teams on, or above their level, over the coming weeks if they want to advance further in this competition.
On form, it looks long odds.
Tom Trbojevic's shoulder
Maybe the single biggest factor coming into Sunday's game.
Granted, the Sea Eagles have looked better this year when Trbojevic has been injured than they have in previous seasons. In fact, based on previous seasons, they wouldn't have made the finals given the time the fullback has missed.
But they still need him at their best if they are going to give the finals a shake and run through the Bulldogs' defence, if they manage to get back to their best.
Trbojevic is simply that important to the plight of Manly. He has 34 try involvements in 18 games. Simply stunning statistics.
Prediction
The Sea Eagles come into the game as narrow favourites, and rightly so given the way the Bulldogs have fallen off in their defence the last few weeks.
There is no doubt the men in blue and white will be right up for this one, but I'm not sure that'll be enough to stop a full strength Manly side from rolling into Week 2.
Sea Eagles by 6.
Key game information: Canterbury Bulldogs vs Manly Sea Eagles, NRL elimination final
Kick-off: Sunday, September 15, 4:05pm (AEST)
Venue: Accor Stadium, Homebush
TV: Live, Fox League 502 and Channel 9
Online: Live, Kayo Sports, Foxtel App, 9Now
Betting: Sea Eagles $1.85, Bulldogs $1.95
Referee: Grant Atkins
Touch judges: Matt Noyen and Phil Henderson
Bunker official: Ashley Klein
