The Canterbury Bulldogs might have home ground advantage, but they will be up against it and needing to turn things around in a hurry when they clash with the Manly Sea Eagles in the second NRL elimination final.
The Bulldogs have shaped as one of this season's success stories, but it has been a disappointing run in recent weeks, with their defence falling off the charts.
Manly also lost in their last start before the finals, but managed to beat the Bulldogs just a fortnight ago.
This is a full betting and odds preview ahead of the game on Sunday afternoon, to be played at Accor Stadium in Homebush.
All odds from PointsBet, correct at 11pm, Saturday, September 14.
Think. Is this a bet you really want to place?
Match winner
The Bulldogs finished sixth on the table and have home ground advantage, but two straight losses coming into the finals, their awful record against top eight sides, and the defensive wheels that have held them in such good stead all season falling off mean they enter this final as the outsiders.
It's narrow though. This isn't expected to be a blowout. Manly are the favourites at $1.85, while the Bulldogs sit at $1.95. It's as close as you can get.
Marin and line
Given the odds over the match winners, it's hardly a surprise to see the line set at just 1.5 points. Manly are paying $1.95 to cover the headstart, the Bulldogs $1.85 to lose by one point or less.
Margin markets may instead be the way to go here.
The Bulldogs are paying $3.30 or $4.60 for 1-12 or a 13+ point win respectively, while the Sea Eagles are paying $3.10 or $3.70 in the two categories.
First and any-time try-scorers
Like the match winning markets, punters are expressing some confusion around try-scorers as well. No player is under $2 to score anytime, which brings with it plenty of value.
The shortest priced players to cross anytime are Tom Trbojevic and Lehi Hopoate, both at $2, while Tommy Talau and Jacob Kiraz at $2.10 and $2.15 are the next duo.
Trbojevic and Hopoate both have $9 about them to score the first try, while Jacob Kiraz and Jeral Skelton are the best of the Bulldogs at $10.
Total points
The tightness of the match isn't driving punters away from expecting points to be scored, with the over 43.5 points paying $1.85. The under is sitting at $1.95. You can get plenty of value on custom totals as well, with over 55.5 paying $4.30, or under 34.5 paying $3.70.
