Yet another loss on Saturday evening for the Brisbane Broncos has the club in grave danger of missing the top eight.
There is no way around that.
Blame injuries, Origin selection and other factors all you want, but the cold hard truth is that Kevin Walters' side is going to need something of a miracle to play finals football this season.
If they do fall short without a blistering finish to the season, they will become the second team in as many years to miss finals the year after losing a grand final.
As mentioned, Brisbane has plenty of injuries and availability problems. That was highlighted this weekend when on Tuesday afternoon they could only name 20 players for their clash against the St George Illawarra Dragons.
Despite a spirited second-half fight back from a 16-point halftime deficit, the Broncos eventually wound up falling just two points short against the Dragons in a 30 points to 28 loss at home.
The loss means the Broncos now hold a mighty unimpressive seven and ten record through 17 games, with two byes had and one still to come.
While that bye will hand them two points, the mark to make the finals is likely to be either 12 or 13 wins.
The one factor which, as it stands, does work in the Broncos' favour is the simple fact they have a positive nine for and against. They are only one of two sides currently outside the eight and still in the mix for the finals to be in the positives, while the Dragons - who on the live ladder are eighth - are also negative. Teams in fourth (Cronulla Sharks), fifth (Canterbury Bulldogs), sixth (the Dolphins) and seventh (North Queensland Cowboys) all have positive for and against, although the Cowboys are just shy of Brisbane's at plus one.
There is no doubt the ladder is an absolute log jam, and for and against may well come into it at the end of the campaign, but for that to happen, Brisbane still likely needs to win at least five of their final seven games, and given their current form and availability issues, that is no sure thing.
The Broncos will get general Adam Reynolds back in approximately Round 22, but that is still weeks away and maybe even more crucially, before the club's final bye, giving Walters' side no benefit there.
The run home for the Broncos could yet be a saving grace: Newcastle Knights (away), Canterbury Bulldogs (home), Gold Coast Titans (away), North Queensland Cowboys (away), bye, Parramatta Eels (home), the Dolphins (away) and Melbourne Storm (home).
There are certainly tougher fixture lists floating around the competition. No games against the Roosters, the Panthers, no trip away to the Victorian capital.
But to win five or six of those games is going to be an almighty challenge. The Broncos have an appalling record against the Storm, are not sure things against teams like the Dolphins, Cowboys or Bulldogs, and, the way they have been playing without Reynolds, could struggle with even the games they are supposed to win.
There is little to no doubt Saturday night's game against the Dragons was something of a crunch game for the Broncos, even with their enormous unavailable list.
They simply had to find a way to win.
Teams ahead of them aren't out of the woods either, that goes without saying in this exceptionally tight race to the chequered flag for the 2024 regular season, but you could almost argue that if they don't go three from three over the next three weeks, even as they wait for Reynolds to return, their finals hopes will be all but dashed.
The mark could yet wind up being 12 games, but even then, the last thing Brisbane will want to do is go into the final round of the season, a home game against the Storm, playing an early knockout fixture.
They might have made the grand final last year and been one of the competition's best sides, but when the depth has been tested this year, they simply haven't passed the test and now with six straight losses, the men from Red Hill are approaching miracle territory.
They can still make the finals, but it must start next week.
The time for excuses is over at the Broncos. Injuries or not, they will join the Parramatta Eels without a miracle.
