After 10 rounds of the 2019 season I embarked on a wildly ambitious endeavour; to predict the results of every remaining match of the 2019 Season using a formula that weighed the current standings along with factors including home field, form and more.

Regardless of the result I promised to publish the results and for those of you who kindly took the time to read my article back on the 24/5/19, I had to follow through and review how my weekly predictions, projected ladder and projected Grand Finalists turn out. Here are the results of this crazy endeavour.

Results
Below is the spreadsheet I used to predict the results (top half) and the actual results (bottom half). Green cells mean correct predictions and as the season went along the green becomes far more prevalent. Interestingly, it was a rough start with an under .500 success rate until round 14. From there on though it was much smoother sailing with a 69.51% success rate from round 15 through the end of the season. All in all this method of projecting did meet with some success, though it of course could not predict injury, rampant infighting (Knights), an incredibly unlikely and unsustainable and wildly improbable win streak (Panthers) and of course whatever that was (Dragons).

Final result: 62.83% Success rate in predicting the outcome of every game.

Expected ladder (based on the first 10 rounds)
Extrapolating out each teams win / loss to a full season shows the following Final Ladder.

Club Wins Losses Byes Points
1. Rabbitohs 21 3 1 44
2. Storm 19 5 1 40
3. Roosters 19 5 1 40
4. Raiders 14 10 1 30
5. Sea Eagles 14 10 1 30
6. Knights 12 12 1 26
7. Wests Tigers 12 12 1 26
8. Eels 12 12 1 26
9. Sharks 12 12 1 26
10. Warriors 10 14 1 22
11. Broncos 10 14 1 22
12. Dragons 10 14 1 22
13. Cowboys 10 14 1 22
14. Bulldogs 7 17 1 16
15. Titans 5 19 1 12
16. Panthers 5 19 1 12

Stats Projected ladder
Using the formula to project the results of each game and thus the ladder

Club Wins Losses Points Rank Change from Expected Ladder
1. Rabbitohs 22 2 46 Unchanged
2. Roosters 20 4 42 Up one spot
3. Storm 19 5 40 Down one spot
4. Sea Eagles 15 9 32 Up one spot
5. Raiders 13 11 28 Down one spot
6. Parramatta 13 11 28 Up two spots
7. Knights 12 12 26 Down one spot
8. Sharks 12 12 26 Up one spot
9. Wests Tigers 10 14 22 Down two spots
10. Broncos 9 15 20 Up one spot
11. Warriors 9 15 20 Down one Spot
12. Dragons 9 15 20 Unchanged
13. Bulldogs 8 16 18 Up one spot
14. Cowboys 8 16 18 Down one spot
15. Titans 6 18 14 Unchanged
16. Panthers 3 21 8 Unchanged

 

Actual end of season ladder
Final 2019 NRL Ladder

  Club Wins Losses Points Stat Project LDR Change Expected LDR Change
1. Storm 20 4 42 Up 2 spots Up 1 spot
2. Roosters 17 7 36 Unchanged Up 1 spot
3. Rabbitohs 16 8 34 Down 2 spots Down 2 spots
4. Raiders 15 9 32 Up 1 spot Unchanged
5. Eels 14 10 30 Up 1 spot Up 3 spots
6. Sea Eagles 14 10 30 Up 1 spot Unchanged
7. Sharks 12 12 26 Up 1 spot Up 2 spots
8. Broncos 11 12 25 Up 2 spots Up 3 spots
9. Wests Tigers 11 13 24 Unchanged Down 2 spots
10. Panthers 11 13 24 Up 6 spots Up 6 spots
11. Knights 10 14 22 Down 4 spots Down 5 spots
12. Bulldogs 10 14 20 Up 1 spot Up 2 spots
13. Warriors 9 14 21 Down 2 spots Down 3 spots
14. Cowboys 9 15 20 Unchanged Down 1 spot
15. Dragons 8 16 18 Down 3 spots Down 3 spots
16. Titans 4 120 10 Down 1 spot Down 1 spot
  • Note: There was one draw in 2019 (Warriors vs. Broncos)


Average Ladder Position Variance

Stat Projected Ladder Expected Ladder
1.68 2.06

Success!!!! The stat projected ladder was on average out by 1.68 spots on the ladder for each team while the expected ladder was out by 2.06 positions! The stat projected ladder was in fact a more accurate means of predicting the final ladder than merely extrapolating the Rd. 10 ladder. Was it worth all the work? Debatable. Was it as accurate as I would have liked? Of course not, but that is half the fun and next years installment will feature tweaks to the formula to try to improve on the 2019 Variance.

Final result: The stats projected Ladder was more accurate in predicting each teams final ladder position.

Correct Predictions

Category Stat Projected Ladder Expected Ladder
Ladder position 2 2
Points Total 2 2
Wins 2 2
Losses 2 2

Dead even with the correct predictions using the two methods. While the per ladder position result using the stat projected was better than the predicted ladder, each was just as effective at accurately predicting a specific result. Interesting.

Grand Finalists
The projected Roosters v Raiders Grand Final is still alive and for those who saw their week one finals efforts, looks a very real possibility. We shall check back on this in 2 weeks time.

Final Result: To be determined

Final thoughts
show filter2 big movers in Penrith and Newcastle defied their projections for very contrasting reasons. While the Panthers got hot and went on a completely unexpected winning streak, the wheels completely fell off for the Novacastrians, resulting in the highly contentious departure of their coach. We know we can’t use the stats to predict everything and these two teams absolutely exemplified this in 2019.

Penrith’s win streak came from out of nowhere after a disastrous start to the season while the alleged infighting and back room moves at the Knights can be largely attributed to their downfall, but we cannot quantify it. While we typically know a coach losing the team will have a negative impact on the side, this exercise has shown there is no measure for it nor any way to predict it.

The stats can give us tremendous insight into our great game, but at the of the day there will always be the human element to it, and as this exercise has demonstrated we cannot put a number on that…… yet.

Thanks for reading as always and good luck to those with teams still in the hunt.

Trust in the Data!

8 COMMENTS

  1. The photo of Walker flipping out was the First thing that was brought to my attention for this story of that angry ant with a chip on his part indigenous shoulders. What a tossel. He only brings a bad taste to the proud Indigenous people with his carrying on like a fool.

    The only stats that matters now is that in the past 10 games, the Sydney Roosters have the best attack and most of all the best defence record of the remaining teams.

    The other stat that only maters is when JWH did not play this year in 6 games. Sydney still won 4 of those 6 games for a 66% win rate.
    Not the 40% rot that everyone is going on about over so many years. Different teams for different years. This team covers well for when JWH is not playing.

  2. 62.83% prediction rate nice. Beats my 59% for the year. Well your on track with Roosters v Raiders GF. That’s what ive gone for anyway.

  3. Excellent reading Matthew.
    I was wrong about the roosters finishing as high as they did but had I known the influence the MRC and judiciary played beforehand I might have been closer to the mark not to mention the diabolical errors in favor of the roosters by Ashley Klein.
    Shame the NRL didnt step in before the 1st semi where Hargreaves , Cordner and Tetevano would have been correctly suspended and Sam Burgess rightly playing.
    Good to see common sense finally with Hargreaves and Klein dealt with accordingly.
    Goodbye roosters.

  7. A late blooming Dud debuts at 26. I was actually at that game he played against the Chooks at the Footy Stadium rnd 1 2016. He scored a try but showed potential back then that he was always going to be a ball hogging Dud.

  8. Hoping the garden gnome Joke Friend is called up this week.
    Now that the ruck wrestle and dummy half forward passes have finally been addressed which the roosters a premiership on a platter last year there’s nothing left in Friend’s worth.
    Potato head Wobbo lacks the character strength to omit him if Joke is fit.
    Venerials isn’t much himself but a step up on Joke.
    Regardless of who Wobbo selects, the chickens will exit Sat night at the hands of a better side that will meet Souths in the GF.

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