10 rounds in the books and many are wondering: can your club still make the finals? Have they all but locked up a spot or is it time to start playing the kids and looking ahead to next year? Scoop has delved into the numbers from the last decade to predict the final ladder position of each club for season 2019 and who has the best shot at bringing home the premiership.
Wins to qualify for the finals 2009 โ 2018
Firstly, we need to take a look at how many wins have been required to make the finals over the past 10 years.
| Year | Lowest number of wins to qualify for Finals | Wins to finish Top 4 |
| 2018 | 15 | 16 |
| 2017 | 13 | 16 |
| 2016 | 11 | 15 |
| 2015 | 12 | 14 |
| 2014 | 12 | 15 |
| 2013 | 12 | 15 |
| 2012 | 12 | 16 |
| 2011 | 12 | 15 |
| 2010 | 13 | 15 |
| 2009 | 12 | 14 |
| Average | 12.4 | 15.1 |
12 wins is the typical cut off for Finals and 15 wins will get you in the mix for the top 4. Finishing Top 4 has a tremendous correlation with Premiership aspirations, as we delve into later in the article.
Expected ladder (based on the first 10 rounds)
Extrapolating out each teams win / loss to a full season shows the following Final Ladder.
*Data
| Club | Wins | Losses | Byes | Points | |
| 1. | Rabbitohs | 21 | 3 | 1 | 44 |
| 2. | Storm | 19 | 5 | 1 | 40 |
| 3. | Roosters | 19 | 5 | 1 | 40 |
| 4. | ย Raiders | 14 | 10 | 1 | 30 |
| 5. | Sea Eagles | 14 | 10 | 1 | 30 |
| 6. | Knights | 12 | 12 | 1 | 26 |
| 7. | Wests Tigers | 12 | 12 | 1 | 26 |
| 8. | Eels | 12 | 12 | 1 | 26 |
| 9. | Sharks | 12 | 12 | 1 | 26 |
| 10. | Warriors | 10 | 14 | 1 | 22 |
| 11. | Broncos | 10 | 14 | 1 | 22 |
| 12. | Dragons | 10 | 14 | 1 | 22 |
| 13. | Cowboys | 10 | 14 | 1 | 22 |
| 14. | Bulldogs | 7 | 17 | 1 | 16 |
| 15. | Titans | 5 | 19 | 1 | 12 |
| 16. | Panthers | 5 | 19 | 1 | 12 |
The Eels and Sharks would be fighting it out for the last Finals spot in this model, with the Eels winning out with this method. The Bunnies, Storm and Tri-Colours finish the year well clear of the chasing pack.
However there are still 15 Rounds to play with different opponents and home / away matchups than in the first 10 Rounds. Thus, a measurement (SoS) needs to be created to predict a more accurate Final Ladder, starting with the Home Ground Advantage
The Home Ground advantage
Season 2019 has seen the home team pick up the win in 66.66% percent of games (48 wins 32 losses). Taking out Magic Round where was there was no home ground advantage for any of the โHomeโ teams the rate is 67.44%, a clear advantage for the home side. With playing at home such a ย heavy factors in a teams chance of victory, it may also have been a factor in slow starts for some teams such as the Dragons, Bulldogs & Eels, who have played two more games on the road than at home. This is heavily weighted in the projection model (SoS) below.
Interesting Fact: the Broncos were the away team against Manly in Magic Round. While the Titans, Wests, Sea Eagles, Bulldogs, Warriors, Storm Roosters and Bunnies essentially gave away a home game, the Broncos have scored an incredibly unfair advantage by having this game as an away game, a game Brisbane won no less. Someone from the NRL is going to have to call me to explain that one!
Strength of Schedule (SoS)
Based on the 10 rounds so far we can rank the strength of schedule (SoS) each club faces for the remainder of the season by home & away games and opponent strength score. The lower the score, the easier the draw.
| Rank | Club | SoS score |
| 1. | Broncos | 150 |
| 2. | Roosters | 152 |
| 3. | Eels | 154 |
| 4. | Sharks | 160 |
| 5. | Sea Eagles | 160 |
| 6. | Rabbitohs | 162 |
| 7. | Raiders | 166 |
| 8. | Storm | 168 |
| 9. | Dragons | 168 |
| 10. | Titans | 172 |
| 11. | Knights | 174 |
| 12. | Bulldogs | 178 |
| 13. | Wests Tigers | 186 |
| 14. | Panthers | 182 |
| 15. | Cowboys | 182 |
| 16. | Wests Tigers | 186 |
Projected Final Ladder (based on SoS)
Based on the Strength of Schedule of the remaining 15 rounds, in addition to current Wins & Losses and Home matches vs Away matches, the following table projects where each club will finish the regular season and who will make the Finals. Extrapolated for/against is used to separate sides with equal points.
| Club | Wins | Losses | Points | Rank Change from Expected Ladder | |
| 1. | Rabbitohs | 22 | 2 | 46 | Unchanged |
| 2. | Roosters | 20 | 4 | 42 | Up one spot |
| 3. | Storm | 19 | 5 | 42 | Down one spot |
| 4. | Sea Eagles | 15 | 9 | 32 | Up one spot |
| 5. | Raiders | 13 | 11 | 28 | Down one spot |
| 6. | Parramatta | 13 | 11 | 28 | Up two spots |
| 7. | Knights | 12 | 12 | 26 | Down one spot |
| 8. | Sharks | 12 | 12 | 26 | Up one spot |
| 9. | Wests Tigers | 10 | 14 | 22 | Down two spots |
| 10. | Broncos | 9 | 15 | 20 | Up one spot |
| 11. | Warriors | 9 | 15 | 20 | Down one Spot |
| 12. | Dragons | 9 | 15 | 20 | Unchanged |
| 13. | Bulldogs | 8 | 16 | 18 | Up one spot |
| 14. | Cowboys | 8 | 16 | 18 | Down one spot |
| 15. | Titans | 6 | 18 | 14 | Unchanged |
| 16. | Panthers | 3 | 21 | 8 | Unchanged |
Using the SoS projections the Bunnies remain on top, with the big movers being the Eels (up 2 spots to 6th) and the Tigers (down two spots and crashing out of the Finals race). Many smaller changes in the standings, which we will again review later in the year. With our ladder now finalised we can predict the Grand Finalists and Premiers for 2019.
Projected Grand Finalists
Since 2009 the Premiers have not finished the season lower than 4th at the end of the Home and Away season. The Premiers have come from 1st 3 times, 2nd 3 times, 3rd 3 times and 4th once.
| Year | Premiers | Final Ladder Position |
| 2018 | Sydney Roosters | 1st |
| 2017 | Melbourne Storm | 1st |
| 2016 | Cronulla Sharks | 3rd |
| 2015 | North Queensland Cowboys | 3rd |
| 2014 | South Sydney Rabbitohs | 3rd |
| 2013 | Sydney Roosters | 2nd |
| 2012 | Melbourne Storm | 2nd |
| 2011 | Manly Sea Eagles | 2nd |
| 2010 | St. George Illawarra Dragons | 1st |
| 2009 | Melbourne Storm (Stripped) | 4th |
The Average Premiership winning Ladder position is 2nd and the Average Runner up comes from 5th. Using the SoS predicted ladder the 2019 Grand Final will be:
Roostersย vsย Raiders
With your 2019 Premiers being: The Sydney Roosters.
Share your thoughts in the comments and we will check back on these predictions at the 2/3 mark of the season and again at the end with a Grand Review. Thanks as always for reading.
ย
Trust in the Data!
Scoop
Amusing little sidelight article but apart from predicting that the premier will most likely come from the top 4 it’s all pretty much just a talking point and nothing else. way too many factors and dramas etc to calculate For example, once the sharks get anywhere near their full side on deck who’s to say they won’t go on a similar run to 2016?…just saying…..hoping??
Hey bbbj,
Spot on mate, it gets us all thinking and talking about Finals chances. Injuries, coaching changes, salary cap penalties, there are many factors we can’t predict so you are completely right there. Will be very interesting to look back on it at the end of the year and see how accurate the stats were as a predictive measure. As for the Sharkies…. that’s what makes footy great, we all love our clubs and with Graham, et. al coming back they could get on a roll, just like anyone team in the comp. Even you Gold Coast Titans…
As a Souths supporter I’m happy for them to finish anywhere in the top 4 and from there if they have a full roster available will be very confident for no 22.
Great bench this year.
Hi Matthew Fairhall just a small correction mate. You had the Sydney Roosters in the last graph as finishing 2nd before going onto claim the 2013 Premiership. The Sydney Roosters were Minor Premiers that season not 2nd.๐ช๐๐๐๐๐
G’day woodchook,
Your 100% right. Thanks for catching that one mate.
Thanks for reading.
Matt
G’day Stevesyd,
Very fair call. Top 4 is the key and with a bit of luck on the injury front the Bunnies will be a red hot chance.
Thanks for reading
Scoop