One of Australian sport's longest running hoodoos will dominate the conversation on the run in to the NRL finals commencing on Friday evening, with the Melbourne Storm looking to make it a staggering 15 straight against the Brisbane Broncos.
The qualifying final will see the winner awarded a week off and direct passage to be within one game of the grand final, but for the Broncos to be that side, they will have to do something they haven't done for years.
Beat the Storm.
Regardless of the form the Storm are in, where they have finished on the ladder, who has departed since last season or what external noise surrounds the club, it's still one of the toughest challenges in the competition.
That becomes even more so when finals roll around. Craig Bellamy just understands how to have his teams firing at this time of year.
What will be intriguing is whether Brisbane, even with home ground advantage, can match that. Hoodoo aside, Kevin Walters' side have been fantastic in 2023, and there is certainly no question as to whether they have timed their run.
Prior to last week's loss to the Storm with both players resting most of their top sides, Brisbane had won seven on the trot.
All of that sets this one up as a belter.
Team news
Brisbane Broncos
1. Reece Walsh 2. Jesse Arthars 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan
Interchange: 14. Tyson Smoothy 15. Brendan Piakura 16. Kobe Hetherington 17. Keenan Palasia
Reserves: 18. Corey Oates 19. Martin Taupau
Big changes for the Broncos given they rested most of their side last week. They are all but back to full strength for this one with Reece Walsh, Kotoni Staggs, Herbie Farnworth, Selwyn Cobbo, Ezra Mam, Adam Reynolds, Billy Walters, Payne Haas, Kurt Capewell, Patrick Carrigan and Kobe Hetherington returning.
Intriguingly, Kevin Walters has elected to dump Corey Oates, with Jesse Arthars playing on the wing.
Melbourne Storm
1. Nick Meaney 2. William Warbrick 3. Marion Seve 4. Young Tonumaipea 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Tui Kamikamica 9. Harry Grant 10. Christian Welch 11. Trent Loiero 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Josh King
Interchange: 14. Bronson Garlick 15. Tom Eisenhuth 16. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 17. Ryan Papenhuyzen
Reserves: 19. Tariq Sims 21. Reimis Smith
Like the Broncos, the Storm are just about at full strength, although that means there is still no room for Justin Olam or Reimis Smith, who would have both been in the best 17 at the start of the season. Instead, Marion Seve and Young Tonumaipea line up in the centres.
Nick Meaney, Will Warbrick, Xavier Coates, Cameron Munster, Jahrome Hughes (who has recovered from injury), Tui Kamikamica, Harry Grant, Christian Welch, Trent Loiero, Eliesa Katoa, Tom Eisenhuth and Nelson Asofa-Solomona all return, while Ryan Papenhuyzen will once again be used off the bench.
Regular season matches
Round 11, Storm 24 defeat Broncos 16 at AAMI Park
For the only meeting that holds any weight between these sides during the regular season, we have to turn the clock all the way back to Round 11, when the Broncos travelled to the Victorian capital.
On that occasion, it was a topsy-turvy encounter. Four sin bins marred the contest, with Herbie Farnworth, Patrick Carrigan and Thomas Flegler all being binned for the Broncos, while Aaron Pene sat down for the Storm.
After sitting at 10-all at halftime, the Storm ran on the next two tries through Justin Olam and Will Warbrick in the 60th and 74th minute. Despite a late consolation try for Cory Paix, the experience and defensive effort of the Storm was too good for the visitors, and they took what ultimately proved to be a crucial two points.
Round 27, Storm 22 defeated by Broncos 32 at Suncorp Stadium
This one barely counts for anyone. Both sides rolled out what were effectively QLD Cup sides. The only thing that matters is the fact that, no matter the circumstance, the Storm's hoodoo remained in tact ahead of this week's qualifying final.
Keys to the game
Ryan Papenhuyzen's influence off the Melbourne bench
Papenhuyzen managed 80 minutes last weekend and was probably the player of the game in Melbourne's win over the Broncos, but he will be back on the bench this week and could have a massive impact.
In finals footy, where forwards are regularly asked to do more, and players are under more fatigue, Papenhuyzen coming off the bench in the second half and playing a roving lock type roll could crack this game into a million pieces.
Fresh legs and a willingness to run the football are a dangerous combination against tiring forwards, and an extra playmaker alongside Cameron Munster and Jahrome Hughes, or someone to run support for offloads from the likes of Asofa-Solomona will be dangerous to say the least.
The only real question here is Papenhuyzen's confidence - he looked a little lost in his return to the NRL against the Titans playing in the front line, defensively not quite ready to put his body on the line.
If he has overcome that, watch out.
Adam Reynolds' control for the Broncos
We are going to talk about the Storm's control in the halves in a moment, but the Broncos need to be right on top of this from the get-go.
While the Broncos have an abundance of youth in their side, and that could well work in their favour, it may not if they are challenged early in the contest. The likes of Reece Walsh and Ezra Mam, who have been exceptional all year, will need to go another level as finals intensity hits.
What will allow them to go to that level though is the kicking game of Adam Reynolds.
He needs to be on song from the get-go, and given he has missed a couple of weeks injured, there is no guarantee that he won't be a bit rusty earlier.
The problem of course is that even a single slip up against the Storm means they will make you pay. Reynolds needs to be able to kick his side out of trouble and play with patience when on the attack to build the pressure. Giving away seven-tackle sets or not kicking long when needed will end this game in a hurry, particularly given the Broncos' huge risk in not playing Corey Oates.
Can Brisbane's bench contain the Storm?
There is little doubt that Brisbane have one of the better starting packs in the game - Thomas Flegler, Payne Haas and Patrick Carrigan aren't matched by too many clubs.
They are going to need to dominate here too - the - in my view - crazy decision to drop Corey Oates leaves the Broncos about 100 running metres short coming out of the back field.
While the starting rotation should have things covered, it's off the bench where things are going to potentially take a turn.
They will feel they have things covered, however, they have no answer for a fresh Nelson Asofa-Solomona coming into the game after 20 minutes. None of Brendan Piakura, Kobe Hetherington or Keenan Palasia bring what he will bring to the side, and that is likely going to mean the onus is on Payne Haas to play large minutes at a higher production to slow down the raging Kiwi.
In fact, Brisbane, you feel, need to play this from in front. Asofa-Solomona, as well as Papenhuyzen's impact, combined with Jahrome Hughes' controlled kicking game, could see the Storm lock this down if they get any sort of lead.
Prediction
I'm anticipating this will be an exceptionally tight game, but ultimately, the Storm should be too good for the Broncos, despite how good they have been for most of the season.
If Brisbane are going to win, they are going to need to do a lot right, but the factor it's hard to get over is finals experience.
Kevin Walters' side have Origin players and Adam Reynolds, but for a club side to do it at this level time and time again takes more than that, and the Storm have that.
Members of the 2020 premiership winning side are still at the club, and their spine, when it clicks is one of the best in the competition. Granted, it hasn't clicked as consistently as they may have liked this year, but Cameron Munster is something special, and Ryan Papenhuyzen coming off the bench could break this thing right open late.
Add to that the weight of expectation and a hoodoo that will live rent free in Brisbane players heads, particularly if it's close late in the piece - which I expect it will be - and Melbourne should come into this as the favourites, no matter what the bookmakers are saying.
Storm by 4.
Key game information: Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm, NRL qualifying final
Kick-off: 7:50pm (AEST), Friday, September 8
Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
TV: Fox Sports, Channel 9
Online: Kayo Sports, Foxtel App, 9 Now
Betting: Broncos $1.61, Storm $2.32
Referee: Grant Atkins
Touch judges: Drew Oultram and Michael Wise
Bunker official: Chris Butler
Overall record: Played 53, Storm 39, Broncos 13, drawn 1
Record in finals: Played 8, Storm 6, Broncos 2
Record at Suncorp Stadium: Played 20, Storm 17, Broncos 3
What happens to the winner and loser?
The winner goes directly into the Saturday night preliminary final during Week 3 of the finals, with one of the Panthers, Warriors, Knights or Raiders to be the opponent. The loser heads into next weekend's Friday evening semi-final against the winner of the Cronulla Sharks and Sydney Roosters.
Zero Tackle will run a live blog, scores and stats of the game in our match centre from 7:50pm (AEST) on Friday evening.
