The Melbourne Storm head into their preliminary final against the Sydney Roosters as the almost unbackable favourites.
That much is absolutely, 100 per cent clear.
The Storm won the minor premiership by the length of the straight, and even though the pub test at various times suggested they weren't playing anywhere near their capabilities, maybe that part alone is the scariest factor.
This Storm side have barely had their first-choice spine on the field together this season, and yet, were barely challenged for the minor premiership before smoking the Cronulla Sharks in the opening week of the finals.
To challenge that, to break their own curse, and to win without some of their biggest stars, the Roosters are going to need to be built different coming into this preliminary final in the Victorian capital on Friday evening.
The common rhetoric which is spurted around finals time is that defence wins premierships.
And it's true. The record of the best defensive team throughout the regular season going on to win the competition is as good as any.
This year, that's the Penrith Panthers. The Cronulla Sharks wound up second, and even the Canterbury Bulldogs came in ahead of the Storm, but given injuries in the Victorian capital, a little bit of inconsistency on the defensive end can certainly be forgiven.
What is clear is that Craig Bellamy's side still have a far better record at that end of the park than their opponents this weekend.
All year, Trent Robinson's side have built their game plan on an ability to run up big totals of points. Essentially, the motto for the Bondi-based side has been "we will outscore you."
And to be fair to them, it has worked more often than it hasn't. They finished in the top four, have dismantled a number of strong teams with their attack, and ultimately have scored more points than any other side.
In fact, at the end of the regular season, they had scored 738 points at 30.75 per game. That is an outstanding figure, and left them 46 points ahead of the Storm at almost two per game, and even further ahead of a number of other contenders, including the Panthers, who only managed 580 points to the end of the regular season.
While we know the Panthers have game breakers, and their attack is hardly a concern given their defence, the same couldn't have been said of the Roosters even at full strength.
There was always a feeling they were going to come unstuck when the whips were cracking given their reliance on out-scoring their opposition.
That concern came even further to a head during Round 26 when the Roosters lost two of their key weapons - Sam Walker and Brandon Smith - to ACL injuries.
The surprise return of Victor Radley from a shoulder injury certainly helps, but no matter which way you dice it, losing their halfback - who has been outstanding all season - and their dummy half who has continued to grow into the role alongside an elite spine that also includes fullback James Tedesco - is virtually a death blow at this time of year.
Any of the other sides attempting to win the premiership without their halfback - Cronulla with Nicho Hynes, Penrith with Nathan Cleary or Melbourne without Jahrome Hughes - would be exceptionally difficult, so it's not as if it's a situation the tri-colours could be accused of not having adequately prepared for, but injuries are a fact of footy.
The problem for the Roosters now is that they don't have a defensively minded game to fall back on.
Instead, they need to continue to try and out-score their opposition, and ultimately, that didn't work against the Panthers in Week 1 of the finals.
Not many teams can play that style of game against the Panthers though, who have a well-drilled defensive set up that has led them to three straight premierships.
Melbourne's defence too is excellent under Craig Bellamy, and always has been, but there have been signs of weakness throughout the course of the season that Robinson's side must look to exploit.
And it will be about winning the battle, and getting onto the front foot early.
A relentless style of play against Melbourne has at times seen them struggle to adapt this season. The game a month before the end of the regular season against the St George Illawarra Dragons may well the best example of Bellamy's side not being able to respond to an ambush.
Again though, the Storm have seldom played at full strength this year, and have built into their game nicely through recent weeks. They tore the Cronulla Sharks in half during their qualifying final with their own attack, defended them out of the game, and have now had a week off to boot while the Roosters were forced to go the hard way with their semi-final win over Manly.
But that's not to say the Roosters go into this game as a complete write off.
Instead, they'll need to use James Tedesco as their key man from outset to finish if they are going to win.
His form has been outstanding all season, but it's more than that. His ball running, and attention from defence, has the ability to create time and space for others - it's time and space that someone like Sandon Smith, who had an awful game against Penrith, needs.
It will also ease pressure on Luke Keary, and fill in dummy half Connor Watson who has been one of the club's best over the last fortnight.
There is no doubt in my mind that if the Roosters into the grind, they will not win this game.
They must play expansive, free-flowing footy, execute well, have their forwards be competitive, and then they are a chance of toppling this Melbourne machine.
