The Cronulla Sharks face the difficult task of returning from Melbourne to keep their season alive, when they put it all on the line in the first NRL semi-final against the in-form North Queensland Cowboys.
Playing Melbourne in the first weekend of the finals has often been a death blow for teams over the years, and the Sharks will be hoping to not become the next team to become victim of that on Friday.
It was the way they performed, rather than the actual result which will be of most alarm to coach Craig Fitzgibbon and his staff as his playing group prepare for this straight knock out game.
Maybe Cronulla were never expected to win in Melbourne, but they barely fired a shot throughout the dismal performance.
Sloppy errors stunted anything they attempted in the first half, and with each error, halfback Nicho Hynes appeared to lose more and more confidence, to the point he was virtually a passenger during the second 40 minutes.
You'd almost argue Braydon Trindall was the dominant half as the Sharks attempted to stay in the contest against Melbourne.
Hynes is so, so important to Cronulla, but of course, there were other issues, led by their famed defence simply not being up to the task against the rampant Melbourne spine led by Jahrome Hughes, but also featuring Ryan Papenhuyzen, Cameron Munster and Harry Grant, all of whom had excellent games.
The issue of course is that the Cowboys are built on their attack.
Scott Drinkwater is one of the game's most creative, and most consistent, fullbacks, while Tom Dearden is fast entering the conversation among the game's most influential halves.
The Cowboys' attack has flipped a corner since Jake Clifford joined him in the halves, while New South Wales State of Origin hooker Reece Robson plays a fast, aggressive style of rugby league, leads the competition in dummy half runs and will be looking to cause more havoc out of the ruck for the men in black, white and blue here.
It's that attack which the Cowboys will need to use if they are going to break down an at times unmobile Cronulla pack, who will need to be at their best.
The Cowboys have also caught fire in recent weeks, putting more question marks over the Cronulla side to justify their top four finish this weekend.
While the win over the Knights last weekend was somewhat shaky, the Cowboys put 44 points on the Bulldogs in the final round of the season, and took wins over a (very undertrength) Melbourne Storm side the week before that. In total, they have scored 152 points in their last four games, and it's that stat alone which should fill them with confidence heading to Sydney against a side they have had enough success against in recent times.
Team news
Cronulla Sharks
1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Siosifa Talakai 4. Kayal Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Toby Rudolf 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes
Interchange: 14. Daniel Atkinson 15. Jack Williams 16. Royce Hunt 17. Thomas Hazelton
Reserves: 21. Samuel Stonestreet 22. Jesse Ramien
The Sharks really missed Jesse Ramien last weekend, and while he is still a chance of returning, there is no guarantee he will play, or be at 100 per cent.
Cronulla haven't made any other changes, with Fitzgibbon resisting the media calls to move Nicho Hynes around the side and out of the number seven jumper.
North Queensland Cowboys
1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Viliami Vailea 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Jake Clifford 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. Heilum Luki 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter
Interchange: 14. Sam McIntyre 15. Harrison Edwards 16. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 17. Griffin Neame
Reserves: 18. Jaxon Purdue 20. Thomas Mikaele
Absolutely no surprises for the Cowboys. They made it through their win over the Knights totally unscathed, and as a result, name an unchanged side for their charter trip to Sydney.
History
Overall record: Played 58, Sharks 38, Cowboys 20
Last ten matches: Sharks 8, Cowboys 2
Record at venue: Never played (Played 2, Sharks 1, Cowboys 1 at old Sydney Football Stadium)
Record in finals Played 5, Cowboys 3, Sharks 2
The Cowboys historically have struggled against the Sharks. They have won just 20 of the 58 games between the clubs, and have lost eight of the last ten.
However, they do hold the edge over Cronulla in finals, with three of the five matches to their name, while they also won the last meeting between the two sides, playing during Round 21 in Townsville.
2024 matches
Round 7: Sharks 42 defeat Cowboys 6 at PointsBet Stadium, Cronulla
Round 21: Cowboys 30 defeat Sharks 22 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
Keys to the game
Can Nicho Hynes turn it around?
There is no getting around the fact Hynes simply wasn't good enough in Melbourne.
We basically asked this question heading into that game as well. The Sharks, who have lost their last seven finals matches, are yet to record a win with Hynes in the halves in the finals, and it's hard to remember a time he played well in a big game.
For all his talent, it's the only blemish on an otherwise fantastic record, and if he doesn't turn it around here, the pressure is only going to get more extreme, with the drums beating louder over his future at the Sharks.
Cronulla have come out and squashed any idea of him being moved on this week, but that won't silence the doubters if he can't turn it around.
Can the Cowboys play fast again?
The Cowboys, at their best, as they have been over the last month, are a joy to watch. That is all down to the fact they play fast, direct rugby league.
All of that is sparked by Reece Robson, who runs the ball out of dummy half as much as any hooker in the competition.
If he has a strong game, it's hard to see the Sharks' forward pack having the pace and agility to go with him, particularly once you consider he is linking up with the likes of Drinkwater and Dearden, while also playing on the back of a forward pack featuring the likes of Reuben Cotter and Jason Taumalolo.
Can William Kennedy stand up?
For all the credit Cronulla's back five have received this year - and most of it is warranted given they have taken Penrith's approach to smash out run metres like they are going out of fashion - William Kennedy has been able to take his game to another level as a member of the spine.
That puts undue pressure on Hynes, and it has shown at times.
There have been glimpses of it though. Kennedy reads the game solidly and knows how to attack.
It's time he bring it out in a big game though.
Prediction
It's tough to know what to make of this one, and you feel like it'll be close whichever way the cookie crumbles.
The Sharks did finish in the top four and get to play this in their own city. Coming back from Melbourne is a daunting prospect, but Hynes is due to finally break through in a big game, so we will tip the Sharks to fall over the line.
Sharks by 4.
Key game information: Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys, NRL semi-final
Kick-off: Friday, September 20, 7:50pm (AEST)
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Sydney
TV: Live, Fox League 502 and Channel 9
Online: live, Kayo Sports, Foxtel App, 9 Now
Betting: Sharks $1.65, Cowboys $2.30
Referee: Ashley Klein
Touch judges: David Munro and Chris Sutton
Bunker official: Wyatt Raymond
