The Cronulla Sharks have already beaten the Melbourne Storm once on the road this year, but the stakes will go up a level when they attempt to do the same thing again in an elimination final.
Despite their Round 10 win earlier this year, playing without Nicho Hynes, the Sharks head to the Victorian capital as rank outsiders to repeat the dosage.
The Storm are simply too good at this time of year, and under the coaching of veteran Craig Bellamy, have been for many, many years.
Melbourne have often looked a side not at the peak of their powers throughout the 2024 season. They have, in essence, failed the pub test. If you were to watch games without scorelines, you would have sworn they were in fact a fringe top eight team.
Instead, they took out the minor premiership with weeks to spare, overcoming a long list of injuries which at times have seen them playing well down on talent. Their spine - Harry Grant, Cameron Munster, Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen - have barely played a game together throughout the course of the season.
And yet, they weren't challenged for the minor premiership, entering the finals now on the back of solid enough form, with the only blemishes in recent times being a slip up against the St George Illawarra Dragons, and a loss to the North Queensland Cowboys in Round 26 when Bellamy rested most of his first choice players.
Despite the unbridled talent of this Melbourne side, the Sharks will head to Victoria full of confidence after their thrown together side won earlier in the season.
The Sharks used that win to finish an incredible start to the season, but it's also fair to say they haven't been the same since. Despite continuing to win a number of games, they have also slipped up plenty through the back-end of the season and in the end only just clung onto a top four berth.
That secures them a double chance this weekend where their forwards will have to be at their best, but teams travelling to Melbourne and losing have often struggled to rebound.
Add that to the fact the Sharks are yet to win a final in the Craig Fitzgibbon era despite qualifying each season, and the pressure is well and truly on the men in black, white and blue over the next fortnight.
Team news
Melbourne Storm
1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. William Warbrick 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero
Interchange: 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Christian Welch 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Alec MacDonald
Reserves: 18. Grant Anderson 19. Lazarus Vaalepu
Ryan Papenhuyzen is back from a knee problem for the Storm, making what is a straight swap for Sua Fa'alogo who is out with an injury.
Recently named club life member Christian Welch is also back onto the bench for the Storm in what is another boost, certainly in the experience stakes.
No other changes for the Storm in what is a relatively stable team list.
Cronulla Sharks
1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 17. Siosifa Talakai 4. Kayal Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Toby Rudolf 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes
Interchange: 14. Daniel Atkinson 15. Jack Williams 16. Royce Hunt 22. Thomas Hazelton
Reserves: 19. Chris Veaila 20. Jayden Berrell
In a boost for the Sharks, they have confirmed 24 hours out from kick-off that Thomas Hazelton will play from the bench after overcoming injury. He comes in to start on the bench, effectively replacing Jesse Ramien, which is the opposite of a boost.
The star centre has been in great touch recently, but missed out injured, with Siosifa Talakai, who was originally named as Hazelton's replacement on the bench, coming into the starting side at centre.
History
Overall record: Played 46, Storm 29, Sharks 17
Last ten matches: Storm 7, Sharks 3
Record at venue: Played 15, Storm 12, Sharks 3
Record in finals: Played 2, Storm 1, Sharks 1
The Storm certainly have the wood over the Sharks across the two club's hitory, having won 26 of the 49 matches played, and 7 of the last 10.
But that may not count for much given Cronulla's mid-season win this year. No Nicho Hynes, but no worries for the Sharks, who claimed a 25 poins to 18 victory in stunning circumstances in Melbourne.
Last meeting: Round 10, 2024, Storm 18 defeated by Sharks 25 at AAMI Park, Melbourne
Keys to the game
Can Nicho Hynes stand up in a big game?
One of the big questions surrounding Nicho Hynes during his time at the Sharks has been his ability in big games.
So far, it has been a little off the mark. The Sharks haven't won a final in his time at the club, and Hynes also failed spectacularly on the State of Origin stage after being handed the New South Wales number seven jumper this year. There is no doubt those circumstances weren't ideal given the send off of Joseph Suaalii early on, but he still looked a deer in the headlights.
He will need to find a way to stand up against his old club if the Sharks are to win on Saturday.
The simple point is this: You don't beat the Storm without a strong organisational force and even better kicking game. Hynes has proven he has both of those things in his arsenal, but needs to employ them both on this trip to the Victorian capital.
Otherwise, he and his teammates will be backing up next week.
Can the Storm continue their line breaking ways?
One of the more intriguing battles to watch - certainly on the stats sheet - coming into this game will be that of Melbourne's line break count.
What the Sharks did so well last time they played in the Victorian capital was stop the pace and speed of the Storm game which has them sitting pretty as the competition's leading line breakers.
It's no surprise the Sharks were the side to stop it either. They have the competition's third-best defence, but structurally, they are well equipped to handle everything the Storm can throw at them.
Melbourne this time though have a full strength, and in-form, spine. Harry Grant is the game's best number nine, and the trio of Ryan Papenhuyzen, Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen play the game so fast, always being in position to set up those breaks.
The forwards will be critical in this area for both sides, and whichever side comes out on top in this key statistical area may well have enough to win the game.
Will Ryan Papenhuyzen have any rust?
Papenhuyzen - one of the game's best fullbacks - has missed a lot of rugby league in 2024.
The Storm were clearly alarmed by that fact when they allowed him to play during Round 26 against the North Queensland Cowboys, despite most of the Storm's best 17 sitting on the sidelines.
That game, on a five-day turnaround, was the obvious candidate for the Storm to sit players out given they had already locked up the minor premiership.
But Papenhuyzen suffered a minor injury during the game, missing most of it, and Round 27. It adds to his tale of woe over the last two years, where he has spent a lot more time sidelined than he hasn't.
This is, without doubt, his biggest gamme in some time. Whether he can get to his best or not in a hurry could help determine the Storm's fate.
Prediction
The Storm come into this game as favourites, and rightly so. The Sharks have a knack of getting down in the trenches though, so it hardly appears as if this will be a blowout.
I've got Cronulla having to play next week, but can certainly see an upset in the pipeline as well.
Storm by 4.
Key game information: Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks, NRL qualifying final
Kick-off: Saturday, September 14, 4pm (AEST)
Venue: AAMI Park, Melbourne
TV: Live, Fox League 502 and Channel 9
Online: Live, Kayo Sports, Foxtel App, 9Now
Betting: Storm $1.30, Sharks $3.60
Referee: Gerard Sutton
Touch judges: Michael Wise and Dave Munro
Bunker official: Chris Butler
