The decider is upon us for the 2024 State of Origin series, with the New South Wales Blues looking to overthrow history to stop the Queensland Maroons from claiming a third consecutive Shield win.
Historically, the Blues win Origin in straight sets, or they don't win very much at all.
In fact, in the 22 deciders played throughout State of Origin history, the Blues have managed just five victories.
That record takes another tumble when you hone in on Brisbane. At Suncorp Stadium, or Lang Park as it is otherwise known, New South Wales have won just 2 of 12 games. It's 2 of 13 total in Brisbane given the 2001 decider was played at the QEII Stadium.
Simply put, the Blues don't get deciders. They don't even hold a winning record in Sydney, where they have won just three out of eight.
That all said, statistics can only account for so much, because New South Wales bring all the momentum to the Queensland capital after putting on an absolute blitz during Game 2 at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
It was a performance that, realistically, had to be seen to be believed. Breaking the record for the most points in the first half of an Origin ever, the Blues took their foot off the gas after halftime, but the game was already gone.
Playing with aggression from the outset, the Blues never let the Maroons into the contest and turned heads after sticking with the Maroons for much of Game 1 despite only having 12 players on the park.
That led to suggestions the Maroons needed to find a way in their team selection to be not out-muscled in Game 2, but that hasn't been the case, with Billy Slater refusing to make more than a single unforced change.
It was aggression combined with Mitchell Moses' kicking game which steered the Blues to a Game 2 victory, and they will be heavily reliant on the same again while also silencing a pharocial crowd.
That corwd will be wiped into a frenzy if Daly Cherry-Evans and his teammates, particularly star fullback Reece Walsh, are anywhere near their best.
Granted, with a forward pack likely to be out-matched, they will have to be if they are going to lift the Shield in front of their home fans at the conclusion of Wednesday night's decider.
The teams
Queensland Maroons
1. Reece Walsh 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Dane Gagai 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Valentine Holmes 6. Tom Dearden 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Reuben Cotter 9. Ben Hunt 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Patrick Carrigan
Bench: 14. Harry Grant 15. Moeaki Fotuaika 16. Felise Kaufusi 17. Kalyn Ponga
Reserves: 18. Trent Loiero 20. Reed Mahoney
Queensland have made two forced, and one unforced change for Game 3. The unforced change sees Jaydn Su'A drop out, with Kurt Capewell to start in the second-row, and Kalyn Ponga joining the bench.
In what could be marked as something of a surprise, coach Billy Slater has continued to refuse a recall for David Fifita despite being in good touch with the Gold Coast Titans.
In the backline, Slater was forced to replace both Xavier Coates and Murray Taulagi.
The exit of both wingers sees Valentine Holmes shuffle out to the wing after an underwhelming Game 2, while Dane Gagai comes into the centres, and Selwyn Cobbo, who played Game 1 from the interchange bench, earns a recall on the wing.
New South Wales Blues
1. Dylan Edwards 2. Brian To'o 3. Bradman Best 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Zac Lomax 6. Jarome Luai 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Jake Trbojevic 9. Reece Robson 10. Payne Haas 11. Liam Martin 12. Angus Crichton 13. Cameron Murray
Bench: 14. Connor Watson 15. Isaah Yeo 16. Mitchell Barnett 17. Spencer Leniu
Reserves: 18. Matt Burton 20. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
Like the Maroons, the Blues have been forced to make one change, and made another that was unforced.
The injury to Latrell Mitchell is undisputably a devastating blow for the Blues, with the star South Sydney Rabbitoh being replaced by Bradman Best.
The Blues' squad have been given a clean bill of health on Tuesday, but Best has been battling hamstring tightness. 18th man Matt Burton is on standby for him.
Meanwhile, Haumole Olakau'atu, who played limited roles in both Game 1 and 2 from the bench, has been replaced by New Zealand Warriors' firebrand Mitch Barnett, who brings with him the ability to play both on the edge and in the middle.
Keys to the game
Can the Maroons fix their attack?
In Game 1, the Maroons had a 13-on-12 advantage for an hour and couldn't put the Blues away until fatigue finally got the better of the men from south of the Tweed.
In Game 2, the Maroons barely got a chance before the game was gone, but that's not to say they didn't get any. When they did, they were awful.
Tom Dearden was out of position, Daly Cherry-Evans was uncharacteristically rushed, Reece Walsh had no impact, and Harry Grant is now putting together the worst Origin series of his already glittering career.
Those four must turn things around if the Maroons are going to score points in the decider.
The argument could be made they need more out of their forwards to stand a chance, and that's probably true, but early points to settle nerves and get on the front foot will be key here.
Queensland squandering opportunities like they did in Game 1 and 2 will be the fastest ticket to dropping the Shield.
Will Bradman Best last 80 minutes?
Bradman Best's hamstring may be the biggest concern heading into Game 3 for the Blues.
He comes into the side to replace Latrell Mitchell as mentioned, and has enormous shoes to fill given the performance of Mitchell in Game 2.
But that doesn't mean he is fit.
Best has struggled through the Origin camp with hamstring tightness. Hamstring injuries are ones which have a habit of re-occurring, and the star centre will be desperate to see out the game.
The Blues are better prepared for it than they were in Game 1 given Connor Watson is on the bench, but it doesn't mean they are in a position to spend a significant period of time without him on the park.
Do the Maroons have enough firepower?
There is little doubt that the Maroons simply didn't have enough to go with the Blues in the forwards during Game 2.
There is also little doubt Billy Slater would have been hammering that message into his troops while they have trained over the last week and a half.
Simply put, the Maroons need to do things faster, they need to start harder, be better disciplined and actually turn up for each other in defence.
They could do a lot worse than watch tape from Game 1 when the Blues did just that for an hour despite defending with 12 players.
That is the sort of performance the Maroons will need if they get on the back foot at any point during the decider. Based on what we saw in Game 2, it's difficult to know whether they have it in them or not.
Can Mitchell Moses go again?
One of the big knocks on Mitchell Moses' career to this point has been his inability to string multiple games together back-to-back at the highest level.
There is little doubt his Origin 2 performance will go down in the history books as one of the best of all-time. Even more so when you consider he had come into the side with limited club football under his belt and never would have done so if Nathan Cleary was fit.
But he went out, put on four try assists and claimed man of the match.
If the Blues win in Brisbane, there is little to no doubt he will need to play a similar role for New South Wales in the decider. In fact, you'd go as far as to say he will win man of the series if the Blues win the game.
That is mighty responsibility for a man who has struggled for consistency at times during his career with the Eels.
Prediction
All the momentum is with the Blues. They have been the better team all series, but that doesn't mean they come in as favourites, and rightly so.
Queensland dominate deciders.
That is simply it. They have won nine of the last ten, and all of the last six in Brisbane.
That alone makes them impossible to tip against.
Maroons by 4.
