The Melbourne Storm's 2022 season promised so very much, but ultimately fell short with a surprise Week 1 elimination in the finals at the hands of the Canberra Raiders.
On paper, they should have been almost a shoe-in to qualify for a second chance in the top four, but the reality, which included injury after injury, was far different for the men in purple from the rugby league outlier.
From Ryan Papenhuyzen missing the end of the season after shattering his knee, to Harry Grant, Cameron Munster and Jahrome Hughes all battling at points, and Christian Welch missing almost the entirety of the season, nothing seemed to go right for Craig Bellamy's side.
And unfortunately, 2023 is off to something of a similar start before a ball has been kicked.
Their backline has been decimated before their Round 1 clash against the Parramatta Eels, and while that'll open up opportunities for the likes of Will Warbrick, it's a blow to the Storm as they look to push their way into a second chance at the end of the season.
But, will they be able to?
Recruitment report
Ins: Joe Chan (Catalan Dragons, 2025), Eliesa Katoa (New Zealand Warriors, 2024), Aaron Pene (New Zealand Warriors, 2024), Tariq Sims (St George Illawarra Dragons, 2023)
Outs: Jesse Bromwich (The Dolphins), Kenneath Bromwich (The Dolphins), Cooper Johns (Manly Sea Eagles), Felise Kaufusi (The Dolphins), Brandon Smith (Sydney Roosters), Tyson Smoothy (Brisbane Broncos)
Recruitment impact
Plenty has been made about Melbourne's recruitment leading into the new season, with plenty of big name experienced players leaving in the forward pack.
Kenneath Bromwich, Felise Kaufusi and Jesse Bromwich have all made their departures for the Dolphins, while utility lock and dummy half Brandon Smith, who has formed an excellent one-two punch with Harry Grant in recent seasons, heads to the Roosters.
While Smith's loss is undoubtedly a big one, the rest seem to have been oversold in a way.
The Storm have a policy of not over-paying for forwards, and it has worked for as long as they have been a success in the NRL.
In their place, they have brought in Eliesa Katoa and Tariq Sims, who are both excellent additions, while Joe Chan has also joined from Catalans.
While some will knock Melbourne's recruitment and retention decisions in the forwards, they have done a super job to replace the departures.
Key talking points
Can they stay (relatively) injury free?
One of the Storm's biggest issues throughout the course of the 2022 season was injuries. There are no two ways around just how much they hit the Storm.
All of their first-choice spine found problems during the season, and while Ryan Papenhuyzen was rocked worse than any of the others in that spine throughout the course of the season, it's something they need to avoid this year.
That is particularly the case with less experience to cover in the forwards following the aforementioned departures.
Bellamy has a way of pulling rabbits out of the hat, and you'd be a very brave man to write off the men in purple, but they need some luck this year. They are not the invincible force they once were, and while, on paper, they should be a top-four candidate, another run like last year could leave them scrapping for a spot in the top eight.
Can Harry Grant stand up as an 80-minute dummy half?
This is not a knock on Harry Grant's ability, or a doubt of whether he will be able to stand up to the top echelon of dummy halves, but it's a question which must be answered nonetheless.
There is little doubt that a large part of the reason Grant has been so dangerous is his explosive ability out of and around the ruck in recent seasons.
Stretching right back to his season on loan at the Wests Tigers, Grant has always played his best football when part of a one-two punch in the number nine role.
He is better than that though, but now has the chance to prove it on a consistent basis, where he will attempt to match the competition's other 80-minute hookers at the top like Damien Cook and Apisai Koroisau.
The question here is whether having to play 80 minutes week in and week out will curb some of that explosiveness out of the ruck - only time will tell, but it will shape as critical to Melbourne's season.
Craig Bellamy's future
This may not seem like a point that will impact this season per se, and a coach of Bellamy's calibre may not let it, but it appears more and more likely that the super coach won't be in charge come Round 1 of the 2024 season.
But there is no doubt that turbulence in the coaching ranks has an impact on players.
If, or potentially when, Bellamy does confirm he will stand down at the end of the season, it will set off a chain reaction that will have players concerned.
There is little to no doubt that players in the Storm set-up simply love playing under Bellamy, and while the club will attempt to keep his morals, values and ethics moving forward, a new coach - even if that is one of Bellamy's past players, or someone off his current staff, is always going to have new ideas to implement.
That, mentally, is a drain on any player, and could lead to some issues at the club in both the on-field and off-field space throughout the second half of the campaign.
The media too, will be all over the Storm for the most part.
Star player: Cameron Munster
Munster colmes into the new season back in his five-eighth role after spending time at fullback during the back-end of the 2022 season, although he could yet spend some time there with Ryan Papenhuyzen out.
Everything Munster touched in 2022 turned to gold.
One of the best players in the game, he was fantastic in all aspects for the men in purple, and will need to lead from the front again in 2023 if the club are to find their way back to the top four.
He has re-signed too, which will be a massive weight off the shoulders for both he and the club.
Player under pressure: Nelson Asofa-Solomona
It's tough to pick a player under pressure in the Storm system - they are simply that good.
However, they have lost plenty of talent in the forwards, and replacing that is going to rely on a number of players to stand up across the side.
One of those is Nelson Asofa-Solomona.
He was fantastic last year whether playing in the middle or on the edge, but will need to take his game to another level this year as the guy in the Melbourne pack who can flip a game on its head.
His aggression comes with consequences though, and he will also need to make sure he stays on the park.
Breakout star: Will Warbrick
This could be any number of Melbourne players. They have some fantastic young players in the ranks, and it'd be hard to argue against the likes of Trent Loiero or Jack Howarth being named here.
But it's former rugby sevens star Will Warbrick who should crack the NRL this year and keep himself there.
Without injury, he would have debuted in the top grade last year, but consistently struggled to stay on the park in the QLD Cup.
When he was on the field though, he scored tries for fun and made life a living nightmare for opposition defensive units. He will be out to do more of the same to stamp his authority on a wing spot for the Storm.
Draw impact
The Storm have a tough schedule for 2023 - of that there can be no doubt. They will be forced to jump on a plane more times than anyone else this season with 13 interstate trips given their home game during magic round. That will see them in the air for almost 50 hours, only behind the Warriors and Cowboys.
A tough double up list presents an overall tough fixture as well, although they will have chance to build momentum early on.
After opening up against the Eels, they play the Bulldogs, Titans and Tigers over the opening month of the campaign.
Two byes during the Origin period help as well, but all up, it's not the fixture list the Storm would have designed.
Fixtures to watch
Round 1, vs Parramatta Eels at CommBank Stadium, Thursday, March 2, 8:00pm
The Storm will open up their season with a clash against last year's grand finalists on the road in what will be an immediate test for both sides.
This should be a belter.
Round 6, vs Sydney Roosters at AAMI Park, Thursday, April 6, 7:50pm
After a month of 'easier' games, the Storm play the Rabbitohs in Round 5 on the road, then play the Roosters in Melbourne during Round 6.
The two-week stretch will tell us plenty about Melbourne, but their matches against the Roosters in recent seasons have been absolute bell-ringers, and this should be no different.
Round 23, vs Penrith Panthers at BlueBet Stadium, Friday, August 4, 8:00pm
The Storm and Panthers played in a grand final in 2020 and met in a preliminary final the following season, and while they didn't meet in the post-season last year, this is one of the better modern-day rivalries in the NRL.
Both sides will be near enough to the top of the table, and this should be an excellent tune up ahead of the finals series kicking off.
Prediction
Scott Pryde
I think the Storm will have an excellent season. Their changes in the forwards, for mine, are actually an improvement.
The threat of injury looms large, but they finished fifth despite their dramas last year. Bellamy is a super coach, Christian Welch's return will be enormous, and this is the game's most professional club.
I've got them in the grand final.
2nd.
Jack Blyth
The Melbourne Storm are the Melbourne Storm, and while once again many will write them off, they still have a strong side, and when fit, the best spine in the NRL.
Ryan Papenhuyzen's knee injury is the concern, it doesn't look like he'll be back on the park until the Origin period at the earliest, meaning the club will rely heavily on Nick Meaney to start the year.
Their backline depth is thinning as injuries stack up, but they have enough class in their spine and quality in their rejuvenated forward pack to still contend. Eliesa Katoa will be the bargain buy of 2023.
4th.
Dan Nichols
This feels like a new era in Melbourne thanks to the fact that half their rusted on forward pack has moved north to the Dolphins.
If anyone can overcome such a huge turnover of talent it is the Craig Bellamy lead Storm. Therefore I have no questions at all about their class.
Melbourne still boast the best spine in rugby league. With the return of Reimis Smith, their backline is far more lethal. They'll be there or there-abouts yet again.
7th.
Zero Tackle calculator: 4th
