The Canberra Raiders have gone on a miraculous run of form over the second half of the season to scrape into the finals by the skin of their teeth, but they'll need more than luck to have a result go their way in the NRL's first elimination final for 2022 as they travel south to play the Melbourne Storm.
The Raiders, who finished the season on 30 competition points with 14 wins from 24 games, at one point looked completely and utterly out of finals contention.
They had won just four of their first ten games, meaning they would win ten of their next fourteen, and after Round 17, they had won just seven.
They would go on to win all but one of their final eight games in what was a remarkable form turnaround for a team whose coach Ricky Stuart at one point or another early in the season looked a dead man walking.
But the Raiders could be a threat in this finals series, as much as many have brushed them off as merely making up the numbers.
After making the finals on the back of the Brisbane Broncos' great descent out of the top eight in the last six weeks, the Raiders will draw on finals experience and smart tactics to have a hope against the Storm, and then, should they win, other teams over the coming weeks.
The green machine of course played the grand final in 2019, and with players like Jack Wighton, Joseph Tapine, Elliott Whitehead and Queensland State of Origin star Josh Papalii still surviving from that team, they have enough experience to know exactly what it'll take to get the job done under pressure.
Their record in Melbourne in recent times (more on this later) has also been phenomenal, and is a cause for optimism among fans of the club, who have already got more than they would have bargained for halfway during the season.
That's not to say they come into this elimination final as favourites.
They enter the match as anything but in actuality, with the Storm hosting and only just missing out on a top four finish after a woeful performance away to the Parramatta Eels last week.
The Storm have been somewhat un-Storm-like this season, and while injuries - particularly to Ryan Papenhuyzen - haven't helped their cause, it would take a brave man - far braver than I am - to think about writing off the Storm at this time of year.
Papenhuyzen is joined on the sidelines in the backline by Reimis Smith and George Jennings, meaning three of the original back five at the start of the year aren't in the team.
Jahrome Hughes, who has been phenomenal in the halves all year alongside Cameron Munster, was also out last week for a loss to the Parramatta Eels which ultimately saw the Storm finish fifth instead of fourth to find themselves with an elimination final.
It's a somewhat rare position for the Storm to find themselves in, without a chance at a week off, but this is, again, a team you could simply never write off despite some of the horror losses they have suffered throughout the course of 2022.
Team news
Melbourne Storm
1. Nick Meaney 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Marion Seve 4. Justin Olam 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Harry Grant 10. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Kenny Bromwich 13. Josh King
Interchange: 14. Brandon Smith 15. Tui Kamikamica 16. Trent Loiero 17. Chris Lewis 18. Young Tonumaipea 19. Jordan Grant
The Melbourne Storm receive a welcome boost for this knockout clash against the Raiders, with Jahrome Hughes welcomed back into the side after missing the Round 25 loss.
He has missed a handful of games this year, and everytime the Storm have looked worse for it.
Hughes comes straight back into the side for Cooper Johns, who returns to the reserves list in what is the Storm's only change for the game.
Canberra Raiders
1. Xavier Savage 2. Nick Cotric 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali'i 9. Zac Woolford 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Adam Elliott
Interchange: 14. Tom Starling 15. Emre Guler 16. Corey Horsburgh 17. Corey Harawira-Naera 18. Albert Hopoate 20. Matt Frawley
The Raiders had the luxury of resting Jack Wighton and Elliott Whitehead last week, so they come straight back into the side this time around.
Wighton is a direct replacement for Matt Frawley, while Albert Hopoate is the player to miss out for Whitehead's return, with Corey Harawira-Naerea moving back to the bench after starting in the win over the Tigers.
Where it'll be won and lost
The Storm will look to carry out the game plan that they do everytime they take to the field.
Win the contest with defence, and then follow it up with scintilating attack. It'd be fair to say however that, at various times this season, both sides of that strategy have been missing from their actual on-field execution.
They will need to get it right to oversee the in-form Raiders, and there is little doubt that Cameron Munster, and his combination with Jahrome Hughes will be key.
The kicking game that the duo serve up is also likely to be more important than normal given the fact Melbourne are simply not a guarantee to win the battle of the middle third.
Whereas the Storm have often carried an almost untouchable forward pack, that not only hasn't been the case this year, but they also come up against one of the most damaging starting prop combinations in the competition in this game in Joseph Tapine and Josh Papalii.
While the Raiders will know exactly what they'll get out of their key men early in the contest, the problems for the green machine will begin when those two move to the bench in the middle of the first half.
If the Raiders are to win, then they are going to need monster performances off the pine by the likes of Emre Guler and Corey Horsburgh, who have both been good in recent weeks, but also haven't come up against the calibre of Melbourne's professional outfit.
That said, Jamal Fogarty's kicking game is also going to be critical once the starting props come off the park, and the impact of Tom Starling off the bench could also make a big difference on the outcome of the contest.
The history
The Storm don't occupy a losing record in too many circumstances, but against the Raiders at home, they do.
Given their remarkable consistency over the years, that statement seems completely bonkers. It gets even weirder when it's considered that Ricky Stuart's green machine have won the last four they have played at the AAMI Park venue as well.
Even stranger when you add in that one of those games was indeed a final.
Melbourne hold the overall wood on the Raiders long term, having won 36 of 51 games, but the history of the last five years simply can't be ignored when it comes to this match, and there is very little doubt that it'll have some Melbourne fans, staff and players more than just a little bit nervous coming into this one.
That is even more so the case when you consider the far stronger positions the Storm have been in over the last couple of years when they have fallen to the Raiders.
Overall record: Played 51, Storm 36, Raiders 15
Record at AAMI Park: Played 12, Raiders 7, Storm 5
Record in finals: Played 5, Storm 4, Raiders 1
Prediction
While the history is, to an extent, hard to ignore, the Storm are the ultimate professional outfit when it comes to this time of year.
For much of the season, the Raiders looked as if they would ultimately end up nowhere near the finals. A soft run to the finish line and some woeful form from the Brisbane Broncos has allowed them to sneak into the top eight.
There is no doubt of course that the Raiders have been playing some exceptional football in recent weeks, but beating the Storm in Melbourne for a fifth time in a row just seems a bridge that will be one step too far for Ricky Stuart's side.
Expect them to make this a real fight from start to finish, but the Storm, with talent like Munster, Grant and Hughes steering the ship, should just about be able to pick up the chocolates and keep their season alive with a clash next weekend against the Eels in Sydney.
Storm by 10.
Key information
Kick-off: Saturday, September 10, 5:40pm (AEST)
Venue: AAMI Park, Melbourne
Referee: Grant Atkins
