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10 Way-Too-Early Predictions for the 2020 NRL Season

It is now officially 2020! What better way to celebrate than to make some predictions I am sure to regret by July?

Published by
Rhys Sullivan

Welcome to the year 2020! It's not quite what was predicted by those futuristic cartoons from the 1980s, but it is a brand new year.

With it comes the excitement for a new NRL season, as well as all the armchair fans who try to sell why their team will win the premiership this season.

So, why not make some of my predictions as to what I believe will occur over the next 12 months.

This will be Josh Dugan's last season in the NRL.

It is always a shame when injuries ruin a career. In recent years, the shining example of this has been Josh Dugan. An Origin and Test star up until 2017, Dugan played 23 games last season, quite a phenomenal effort given it is only the third time he has played 20 or more games in his NRL career.

However, the Sharks have too much outside back depth. Bronson Xerri has a centre spot locked up, probably for the next decade, and the return of Jesse Ramien, coupled with the presence of Josh Morris and rising youngster Jackson Ferris, may see Dugan stranded in the NSW Cup for most of the year.

Dugan turns 30 in May, and I struggle to see another NRL club who would want to sign him.

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - SEPTEMBER 08: Joshua Dugan of the Sharks in action during the round 25 NRL match between the Wests Tigers and the Cronulla Sharks at Leichhardt Oval on September 08, 2019 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

Shane Flanagan will not be the next Dragons coach.

When Shane Flanagan was brought in to be the assistant to Paul McGregor at the Dragons, many immediately anticipated what was believed to be the obvious: McGregor's days are numbered at the Dragons, and Flanagan has been brought in to replace him. I tend to think otherwise, however.

McGregor is on his last legs, and another season of missing the finals will likely prove fatal. But I doubt the team looks to Flanagan to coach. I suspect he has been brought in out of McGregor's desperation, and when the axe falls on McGregor's head, Flanagan will quietly slip out the door with him.

I suspect that Matthew Head would be the one promoted to the hot seat should the Dragons hire from within.

GOLD COAST, AUSTRALIA - JULY 15: Sharks Coach Shane Flanagan looks on during the round 19 NRL match between the Gold Coast Titans and the Cronulla Sharks at Cbus Super Stadium on July 15, 2017 in Gold Coast, Australia. (Photo by Jason O'Brien/Getty Images)

Adam O'Brien won't get the Knights to the finals this season.

The hiring of Adam O'Brien signalled a new era for Newcastle. He becomes the youngest head coach in the NRL, however other sports have shown that hiring a younger coach works- most notably the NFL and Sean McVay, who revolutionised the ageing West Coast offence and led the Los Angeles Rams to a Super Bowl a week after his 33rd birthday.

However, O'Brien isn't what the Knights needed. Outside of Kalyn Ponga, the Knights are a very experienced squad, and as a result, needed an experienced coach. Best case scenario for the Knights was for Paul Green to be sacked, he would've been perfect for the role.

As it transpired, the Cowboys weren't trigger happy, and the Knights went for innovation rather than a coach like Geoff Toovey or Tim Sheens.

It will pay off very soon, but I don't think that will be in 2020.

Adam O'Brien

Two Queensland sides will be in the Finals.

Last season was very nearly the first time since 1991 where a Queensland team failed to make the finals. The Titans finished dead last, the Cowboys languished at the foot of the table for most of the year, and only a late-season charge saw the Broncos sneak into the 8- although they shouldn't have bothered after their 58-0 capitulation against Parramatta.

However, things are in a much better position north of the border this year. The Titans are still maybe 2 or 3 years away from challenging for the top 8, however, they are in a much better position now under Justin Holbrook.

The Cowboys have now added Valentine Holmes- one of the purest attacking threats in rugby league, at least prior to his attempt at making the NFL. Even if he is forced to ease his way back into the game, the lessened pressure on Michael Morgan will allow him to return to form- in turn increasing the effectiveness of Jason Taumalolo.

For Brisbane, Anthony Siebold now has the side he wants. A versatile back 5, 2 halves which can play off each other, and one of the best forward packs in the league- a very similar set up to South Sydney in 2018. Expect to see both familiar foes in September next season.

BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 22: Tevita Pangai Junior of the Broncos takes on the defence of Jason Taumalolo of the Cowboys during the round two NRL match between the Brisbane Broncos and the North Queensland Cowboys at Suncorp Stadium on March 22, 2019 in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

Michael Maguire and Ivan Cleary will continue to leave heads scratching.

For two coaches who have been considered in the upper echelon of coaches, neither Michael Maguire nor Ivan Cleary got going last season. And what they have done for the upcoming season continues to raise questions.

Maguire seems hell-bent on fighting a losing battle, wanting to conserve the Tigers' ungodly levels of cap space to bring in Latrell Mitchell and/or Josh Addo-Carr, rather than evening it out to cover the glaring holes within the Tigers lineup.

Ivan Cleary is also taking an interesting angle on the Panthers' rebuild. Many key parts of Penrith's team, including Reagen Campbell-Gillard, Waqa Blake, Wayde Egan and Dallin Watene-Zelesniak, all of whom are 26 or younger, were let go in favour of bringing in more veteran presences. This has worked for Cleary before, a similar tactic was used for the Warriors in 2010 and the Panthers in 2014.

However, this will rely on youth to step up immensely, led of course by Nathan Cleary. I'm not going to write off the Panthers yet, however, another failed campaign may see the Panthers hierarchy demanding answers.

PENRITH, AUSTRALIA - MAY 17: Panthers coach Ivan Cleary speaks to the media after the round 10 NRL match between the Penrith Panthers and the New Zealand Warriors at Panthers Stadium on May 17, 2019 in Penrith, Australia. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

The Raiders will not reach the same level as 2019.

The Raiders came within 1 game (and maybe 1 referee mistake) of claiming their first premiership since 1994. It was truly a magical season for the Green Machine, however, 2020 is not likely to be the same.

It is almost tradition for the Raiders for them to have a great season, then take a backwards step a year later, and I can't see that changing.

Much of what the Raiders accomplished was thanks to some great form from guys like Jack Wighton and John Bateman to go along with the brilliance of Josh Hodgson and Josh Papalii.

If that form fails to carry over, the Raiders may once again see themselves left just outside the 8.

CANBERRA, AUSTRALIA - JUNE 13: Bailey Simonsson of the Raiders celebrates with team mates after scoring a try during the round 14 NRL match between the Canberra Raiders and the Cronulla Sharks at GIO Stadium on June 13, 2019 in Canberra, Australia. (Photo by Tracey Nearmy/Getty Images)

Latrell Mitchell will be a Rabbitoh before the season's out.

Even with the signing of Jai Arrow, the Rabbitohs have a definite path to clear enough cap space to bring in Latrell Mitchell for 2021but I believe it could happen by the June 30 deadline.

It would lead to a carousel of player movements, with Dane Gagai and Alex Johnston likely being forced out of the club, however, Souths have enough backline depth to cover.

The Roosters may not like it, but Latrell won't languish in reserve grade, and maybe the Roosters can snag Johnston to solve their wing issues.

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - JUNE 16: Latrell Mitchell of the Roosters looks on during the round 14 NRL match between the Sydney Roosters and the Canterbury Bulldogs at the Sydney Cricket Ground on June 16, 2019 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)

The Kangaroos will once again dominate the Lions.

Since Australia finally broke the drought to beat Great Britain in the 1950 Ashes, the battles between the pair (and subsequently Australia v England) have been quite one-sided in favour of the Green and Golds.

The upcoming Tour of Great Britain should be no different. Great Britain's tour of the Southern Hemisphere in 2019 was an absolute failure, failing to win a game against Tonga, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea. Their team lacks the fluidity of major nations and as a result, failed to do much more than run and tackle.

The Australians will be smarting for a strong tour after they lost their number 1 test ranking and Mal Meninga will know that a failed tour will likely force his resignation.

Expect Australia to come out firing.

WOLLONGONG, AUSTRALIA - OCTOBER 25: David Fifita of the Kangaroos in action during the International Test match between the Australian Junior Kangaroos and France at WIN Stadium on October 25, 2019 in Wollongong, Australia. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

Queensland will return to the summit of State of Origin.

The 2019 State of Origin Series was one of the best in recent memory, a dominant win from each state, before an exciting Game 3 which showed the resilience of Queensland and the game-breaking nature of New South Wales.

The 2020 series should be no different. I believe the addition of Valentine Holmes puts Queensland over the edge. It allows Queensland to move Michael Morgan back to 14, a position where he performed spectacularly in 2017.

Reed Mahoney will likely make his debut at hooker for the Maroons, providing them with much more control in the ruck.

For New South Wales, Bronson Xerri could be a wildcard to make his debut, however, I don't think that will be enough.

BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA - JUNE 05: Jai Arrow of the Maroons celebrates victory after game one of the 2019 State of Origin series between the Queensland Maroons and the New South Wales Blues at Suncorp Stadium on June 05, 2019 in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

Cameron Smith will leave the game a Premiership winner

This is a nice little 2 part prediction to end the list.

Firstly, I think the Storm dynasty is not over. Unlike the Roosters, the Storm still retains all their key pieces from their 20 win effort from last season. They will be the strongest team in the league once again and will march to the Grand Final, where they will when the clubs 3rd (unofficially 5th) premiership.

Smith is off contract after this season, and unlike 2018, there is little news of him pushing for a new contract. It seems as though he will make up his mind around the end of the season, unlike Darren Lockyer, for example, who announced his retirement in March.

If the Storm falls short again, we might see Smith stick around for one more year. But should he have the chance to hoist the Provan-Summons Trophy once again, there would be no better way for one of the greatest the game has seen to hang up the boots.

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - OCTOBER 01: Cameron Smith of the Storm celebrates and holds aloft the NRL Premiership trophy after winning the 2017 NRL Grand Final match between the Melbourne Storm and the North Queensland Cowboys at ANZ Stadium on October 1, 2017 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
Published by
Rhys Sullivan