Game 3 of the 2025 State of Origin series is here.
The biggest day on the rugby league calendar presents a live decider to be played at Sydney's Olympic Stadium, with a packed house set to watch the New South Wales Blues attempt to retain the Shield they won last year on enemy territory against the Queensland Maroons.
Billy Slater's side are under the pump. Two lost series in a row won't cut it for the Queensland audience, and questions will be asked if they can't get the job done.
Despite bringing all the momentum into the series decider after recording their first ever win in Perth, the Maroons do come into the decider as the outsiders against a Blues side that, on paper at least, should be able to outmatch them stride for stride.
But Origin games never have been, and never will be, played on paper.
It has been an enthralling series so far truth be told.
The Blues might have the stronger side on paper, but they still went into the series not expecting to win in Brisbane. They hadn't won back to back games in the sunshine state for more than 20 years.
That's last century.
But they did just that despite a performance which, particularly in attack, left plenty to be desire, and the writing appeared to be on the wall for Slater's side.
If they couldn't match it with the Blues in Brisbane, in front of 52,000 screaming Queenslanders, where on Earth would they be able to do it.
But then, the trip West happened.
Slater made one of the boldest Origin calls in history by dropping captain Daly Cherry-Evans, and the Maroons grew an extra leg, taking an enormous lead into halftime before clinging onto it in the second half.
There was plenty of talk about the penalty count, but the Blues went into the game with Nathan Cleary who couldn't kick in general play thanks to his leg, and clearly believing they only had to show up to win. Instead, they were sloppy at both ends of the park, had poor discipline, and paid the price for it before mounting a dramatic comeback effort in the second half.
It's that comeback effort which will have New South Wales believing they can take the series back in Sydney.
They did, matter of fact, score more tries than their opposition in Perth, but as it had the potential to do in Game 1 with a poor performance, goal kicking properly let them down and ensured a live decider would be the result in Sydney.
Queensland have been outplayed comprehensively for three of the four halves in this series, yet, if there was enough to suggest in the single half that they did win that, at their best, they can at the very least challenge the Blues, even if they are on the road at the Olympic Stadium.
But they will need to be better than good if the Blues turn up with a dominating performance through the middle third.
Team news
New South Wales Blues
1. Dylan Edwards 2. Brian To'o 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Latrell Mitchell 5. Zac Lomax 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Max King 9. Reece Robson 10. Payne Haas 11. Liam Martin 12. Angus Crichton 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Connor Watson 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Hudson Young 17. Stefano Utoikamanu 18. Jacob Kiraz 19. Lindsay Smith
The Blues named an unchanged side for the decider, despite plenty of calls from plenty to switch things around in the forwards.
The overlooking of both Terrell May and Keaon Koloamatangi from the entirety of the series has certainly raised eyebrows, and will ask serious questions if the Blues don't manage to pick up the chocolates at home on Wednesday evening.
Queensland Maroons
1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Xavier Coates 3. Robert Toia 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Valentine Holmes 6. Cameron Munster 7. Tom Dearden 8. Josh Papali'i 9. Harry Grant 10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui 11. Reuben Cotter 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Trent Loiero 14. Kurt Mann 15. Lindsay Collins 16. Patrick Carrigan 17. Jeremiah Nanai 18. Reece Walsh 19. Jmaine Hopgood
The Maroons were forced into a change for Game 3, with Kalyn Ponga missing out to a foot injury. Reece Walsh was the likely replacement, but instead, he will be 18th man, with Billy Slater moving Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to fullback and handing a debut to Gehamat Shibasaki.
Moeaki Fotuaika has also been dropped by Queensland, with Josh Papalii sensationally recalled despite retiring from the representative arena some years ago.
History
Overall games record: Played 128, Maroons 68, Blues 58, drawn 2
Overall series record: Played 43, Maroons 24, Blues 17, drawn 2
Record in deciders: Played 22, Maroons 14, Blues 6, drawn 2
Keys to the game
What sort of game will Cameron Munster play?
Queensland five-eighth and captain Cameron Munster comes into Game 2 with a disrupted preparation after the terribly sad passing of his father over the weekend.
Munster returned home to be with his family, but committed to playing the decider in honour of his father.
On the field, there is very little doubt that Munster is the most important player for the Maroons.
He was all over the first half of Game 2 in the series, when Queensland were at their best, and he will need to be in Sydney.
There is a real feeling that he might just do that too - certainly, it will be an emotional night for Munster, and it will likely go one of two ways.
Can Nathan Cleary get his kicking game right?
One of the Blues bigger issues in Game 2 was the kicking game - or non-existent kicking game as it were - of Nathan Cleary.
As it turned out, he went into the game not quite 100 per cent and nursing a groin problem. That led to others around him doing a lot of the long range kicking, and made a major impact on the Blues.
As much as Laurie Daley didn't think that was the case post-game, it was fairly obvious to those watching at home.
It does remind you how good Cleary's kicking game is, but it also reminds you how important it is. In Game 1, the Blues execution was poor, but they were still able to dominate with Cleary's kicking playing a major role in that.
If the Blues are to win, Cleary will have a big game. It's a simple as that.
Is Gehamat Shibasaki up to the challenge?
Maybe the biggest Origin selection call in recent years is the selection of Gehamat Shibasaki.
A train and trial contract is all he could muster at the start of the year, but so good has his form been at the Broncos that he is now an Origin player.
It's an incredible, dramatic rise, and if it doesn't backfire, it could go down as a stroke of genius.
In fact, you'd go as far as to say Billy Slater's Queensland coaching career could be riding on the performance of the rookie, and that of the rest of his team.
He is yet to out-coach anyone other than Brad Fittler, but this selection - picking Shibasaki, moving Tabuai-Fidow to the back and leaving Walsh out - could be the making of the former champion fullback.
Prediction
The Blues come into the game as favourites, and with good reason.
When the forwards have been even enough, the Blues have looked the better side.
At home, a place where they have often had the edge, it should all conspire to tip the Blues over the line for the series win, but it's certainly no guarantee.
Blues by 6.
Key game information: NSW Blues vs Queensland Maroons, Game 3, 2025 State of Origin series
Kick-off: Wednesday, July 9, 8:05pm (AEST)
Venue: Accor Stadium, Homebush
TV: Live, Channel 9
Online: Live, 9Now
Betting odds: Blues $1.43, Maroons $2.83
Referee: Ashley Klein
You'll be able to follow live coverage of the game here on Zero Tackle, with stats in our match centre, and commentary in our live blog on site, before all the analysis will follow fulltime.
